SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[Extremeweatherguy]

This morning in NW Houston = 67-68F with mostly cloudy skies.

Expected to be even cooler the next two nights with lows forecasted into the lower and middle 60s.

[Portastorm]

Yup EWG ... we're feeling it, too! 69 degrees this morning when I awoke and tonight it's going down to 61! Hallelujah!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I had 64F on my thermometer this morning.

[BreinLa]

Make sure you guys keep the cool air there in Texas I am going to a football game at College Station on Saturday

[Yankeegirl]

It was got out today, 92 now, but the lack of humidity makes it not even feel like it... its womderful!!

[Johnny]

Out of the Dallas/Fort Worth office....if this verifies it will kick off the official start to the fall season.


FINALLY...IT APPEARS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WRN U.S. IN A WEEK. THIS SHOULD SEND THE FIRST REAL COLD
FRONT OF THE SEASON OUR WAY SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 8-10 DAYS.

[Yankeegirl]

Bring it on!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

HPC shows a front passing through SE Texas on September 13th:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif


*edited by staff to make the image a link - it's too big

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest Houston AFD does not buy into the front, but it does buy into lots of rain:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN BECOMING A BIT MORE COMPLEX AS WE HEAD INTO MID SEPTEMBER
WITH AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE ON THESE MORE
EASTERLY WINDS WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD. 700-850 MB
TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING SHOWN DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SE
U.S. AND MOST LIKELY THE IMPETUS TO THE INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY IN GULF. CLOUDINESS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL DECK RIDES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. CURRENT TRENDS SHOWING WHAT MODEL SOUNDINGS WHERE HINTING
AND THAT IS INCREASED PW`S FROM NEAR AN INCH YESTERDAY TO NEAR
1.2"-1.8" PER GPSMET PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY. WESTERN
SHORTWAVE RIPPLES MOVING IN THIS NEAR-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY OVERCAST...TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL...AND RAIN CHANCES HIGH.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEKEND
WITH AN EVEN HIGHER SHOT OF PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHERE
CONFIDENCE WANES IS IN THE TIMING AND QPF. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO INCONSISTENT TO RELY UPON WITH THE
NAM NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE RELIABILITY DEPARTMENT. UPON REVIEW OF
THE UKMET WITH THE CANADIAN TO BACK IT...CONCLUSION IS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A WET PATTERN AS TX REMAINS IN A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME WITH PUMPED MOISTURE VALUES OF PLUS 2 INCHES BY
SUNDAY. BELIEVE THAT...AS CURRENT TRENDS DO SUGGEST PER WATER
VAPOR...THAT SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SO THOSE
PRECIPITATION TRIGGERS WILL BE PRESENT. RECENT DAYS HAVE SHOWN
THAT MINOR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES HAVE INITIALIZED ISO SHWRS SO
NO REASON TO GO ON THE DRY SIDE AS LARGER SCALE FEATURES COME MORE
INTO ALIGNMENT OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. ALTHOUGH GENERAL FLOW IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF SPLITTING JET...MAX CORES
COMING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL PLACE SE TX IN
FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING (LEFT FRONT QUAD). ALL ARGUMENTS TO GO
WITH 40 TO 50 POPS THROUGH DAY 5. NOT SURE THERE WILL EVEN BE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY...MORE LIKE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
EVENTUALLY FILTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY (UPPER 50
DEWPTS) TO HELP CLEAR OUT SKIES. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE GFS HAS
BULLSEYED RAIN OVER US ONCE AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
31

[Extremeweatherguy]

As of this morning it looks like the CF will probably just barely make it through our area on Tues/Wed, but it will stall and quickly return north as a WF on Thursday. Basically, expect a lot of rain over the next few days with the possibility of slightly cooler temps. for a day or two behind the front.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Next front expected to come through tonight bringing heavy rains and possible svr. weather this afternoon.

[Yankeegirl]

I sure hope it comes through with a bang. i am sick of this humid hot overcast weather today.. its yucky!

[southerngale]

I'm eagerly awaiting the first day I need to wear a jacket, although I think that will still be a while. lol

[PTrackerLA]

Supposed to get into the lower 60's for lows after this next front. Upper 50's just north of here...first signs of fall!

[Yankeegirl]

Looks to me like the heavy rain here is going to be a bust... Looks like its going to stay off shore....

[jasons2k]

It always seems to do the opposite of what they predict here:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

COASTAL ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES
OF PRECIP THIS EVENING WITH POPS LOWERING FARTHER INLAND. BELIEVE
MUCH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING FROM SOUTHWEST WILL MOSTLY
IMPACT COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES. WE EXPECT MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ZONES TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH PRECLUDING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

And here is the verification:

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB mentioned a "super front" that is expected to come down the plains next weekend. He said this front could drop temps. into a month advance type conditions, bringing October-like weather all the way to the Gulf coast! He also said this will have to be watched for tropical development once offshore.

This front is making him question his west trough, east ridge idea for next month...but he said he is not backing off just yet.

Either way...looks like the first REAL chill of the season is on the way! (hopefully)

I will have more for you later on this front, but ATM it looks like it will pass through the northern plains on Sat/Sun and reach the GOM by early the week of the 18th.

[jasons2k]

Well I hope JB, as usual, is overestimating the chilldown. I have a late-season pool party coming up so the last thing I need is an early fall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

that strong front shows up nicely on the 18Z GFS:

132 hr. - Front in N. Texas: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

150 hr. - Front passing through our area: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml

168 hr. - Northerly flow into SE Texas: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

192 hr. - Still being influenced...lots of GOM activity: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

**A similar scenario also showed up on the 12Z**

[Johnny]

That sure would be interesting. I've read all of the discussions around Texas this morning and it seems that we should be expecting another front this Sunday entering North, Texas but nothing too big by the sound of it. Is JB still thinking a good shot of cool air is coming all the way to the gulf coast this morning?