TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Furious George]

I would be worried if I was in Bermuda right now. It should be closer to the middle of the cone in the next advisory (with the eastern GFDL shift).

[Derek Ortt]

may not matter at all as large as this thing is. A track over or 50 miles west of Bermuda could bring about the same effects

[wxman57]

On visible it is definetly moving NW now.

I don't see any NW movement, except by that small eddy that may be the focus for development over the next 24 hours. The whole cloud mass is moving toward 280-290 degrees - WNW.

[Windtalker1]

may pass east of Bermuda based upon some of the 12Z guidance. A fairly substantial shift right

Models have been wrong before...and if you notice, they had the turn hugging 65 now it's closer to 70 which tells me the other models are trending West as Flo stays weak and will continue to do so if she stays weak. Looks also like High Pressure to Flo's North is making a move to the west above Flo.

[Bailey1777]

WAXMAN57 would that be considered moving NW or jusr the vortex being drawn to the convection. It was kind of funny to watch like a little streaker running for cover.

[Derek Ortt]

the models do not have the turn anywhere near 70W now

The turn is closer to 63-65W. The models are trending east and have for the past few days

[Furious George]

the models do not have the turn anywhere near 70W now

The turn is closer to 63-65W. The models are trending east and have for the past few days

Correct. While previous models have put the storm well west of Bermuda, they are now closer, and some newer ones are even showing a path east of Bermuda. Now the question becomes - will trends continue (similar to Ernesto), or will these models hold still for a while.

[Windtalker1]

the models do not have the turn anywhere near 70W now

The turn is closer to 63-65W. The models are trending east and have for the past few days

I beg to differ....the NGPS, LBAR & GFDN are closer to the 70 than they were on the previous run....they were closer to 65. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 6&start=80

[storms in NC]

I have to said in all the models have stayed close together than they have this year. But it still make you wonder if they are right cause they have been bad this year.

[Sanibel]

Flattened shape to entire system showing shape of synoptic to north.

LLC now going into recurve track WNW.

Significant: Convection forming on west side.

[Derek Ortt]

LBAR is useless and should not even be considered, and GFDN has been having issues as of late as well

The reliable models are more east

[Damar91]

This thing looks like a cold front on a bad day.

[Frank2]

I don't think so, Thunder - it'll be interesting to see what the 5 p.m. TCD mentions of it's strength and organization (or lack of)...

Frank

[storms in NC]

Here you go. this said the next 72 hours on a W-NW movement

WTNT41 KNHC 071430
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN
DIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5
KT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.8N 53.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 55.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 22.4N 58.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.6N 60.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.8N 63.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 27.2N 65.8W 90 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.8N 66.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 95 KT

[Lowpressure]

These same models, all but 1, had Ernesto in the Southern GOM with some even showing a Mexico strike!! They were as wrong as wrong can get. Models are a tool, not an indicator.

[Bailey1777]

I think it is almost show time, the LLC on the last frame caught that convection to the West and you can see it wrapping. I think we are fixing to see what Flo is made of.

[gatorcane]

ther eis some weird stuff going on with Florence. Almost like she is breaking in two today...??

[storms in NC]

These same models, all but 1, had Ernesto in the Southern GOM with some even showing a Mexico strike!! They were as wrong as wrong can get. Models are a tool, not an indicator.

But with each day they moved it to the right more and more till they got it down after Cuba.Then it was just a fine tuneing from there.

[bjackrian]

ther eis some weird stuff going on with Florence. Almost like she is breaking in two today...??

I was wondering that too--it looks like the main circulation is moving rapidly west while leaving a lot of the t-storms behind. Just my opinion...not an expert or anything.

[wxman57]

Here are the latest dynamic models. NOGAPS is way west of the other models. There is definitely a trend eastward and closer to Bermuda.



Here's the same plot minus the NOGAPS related models: