TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[NESDIS Met]

I think you may have the most valid point this morning that I have thus far seen.

Always hesitate to post, and to dare make a post that discards all of the model solutions extant, seems like sacrilege. All I will say is that intensity affects track, and in a situation such as this it may be the determining factor.

The determining factor for getting to 70 or 75 west, though on approach to the coast the globals want to blast it to shreds. This solution would imply a rapidly weakening fade out to sea after quite a scare for all between Hatteras and Maine.

[Trugunzn]

You can reallly see the center in this loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

What are the triangular barbs?

50 knots or more.

That means the storm is a bit stronger now?

[Derek Ortt]

the 50KT barbs are rain flagged and invalid

[curtadams]

If there were no shear over this system then the convection would be symmetrical and evenly dispersed over the entire system. The reason half the storm is naked is because it is being sheared off to the NE as you have seen the convection showing the last few days. You can't say "there's no shear over the storm" when the storm itself is completely sheared as it shows.

Run the WV loop. The ULL is bullying this system just to the west.

No, lack of shear doesn't necessarily make a system symmetrical. You see random convection in the absence of shear all the time. IMO the problem is that Florence isn't really a tropical cyclone, with intake to a low pressure center rising up and fueling convection. She's more like an insanely overgrown surface low, with convection all over the place but not connected to the center. Like any surface low, she could stew around for a while without developing even if conditions are decent.

I see the shear but I don't see it as particularly lethal. You can have a vigorous TS, at the least, with stronger shear - we've seen several this year alone, notably Alberto. Given that Florence is not (yet) really a cyclone the shear could be interfering with her development, as developing systems are more susceptible to shear. But I think the main limitation is just that she's so disorganized, and so big that organizing is very slow.

[bjackrian]

What are the triangular barbs?

50 knots or more.

That means the storm is a bit stronger now?

They're rain contaminated, so they're probably not accurate.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man, we have yet to see a beautiful looking Fish storm yet this year...Everything that's developed fish wise has been ugly, Ugly, UGLY!!!...

I'll believe it when I see it...

[storms in NC]

You can see the center starting to tighting up in the last few frames

[curtadams]

Hi all,

Quick question:

What do you think of the CMC runs? Right now it's got Florence heading for a direct hit on Nova Scotia, but it's the only model to do so. I've been watching over the past few days and it's been really consistent, but again, it's not behaving like the rest.
M

The CMC is predicting a due north run, which it seems particularly fond of predicting. So I'm suspicious. But no, a strike on Nova Scotia is not out to lunch at this point. It's just that guidance indicate the storm is much more likely to pass east of NS. NOGAPS has a Newfoundland strike, so she's certainly not yet guaranteed to be a fish.

[cpdaman]

derek is there a different "signature" that mid level shear has on a storm compared with upper level shear

do you think any mid level shear is effecting this storm

[Frank2]

It appears that the system is becoming very stretched from west-east, almost as if the systems is opening...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Frank

P.S. If nothing else, Florence is a very un-storm-looking tropical storm...

[Bailey1777]

It's very ugly right now, and look West of it, she's not going to miss that trough. Just wish we could see an eye before she gets bowled.

[wxman57]

What are the triangular barbs?

50 knots or more.

Can't use the black barbs, their "rain-flagged", meaning the QS is identifying cloud movements well above the surface in rain areas. Checking unflagged reports in the NE quadrant, there may be a few 35-40 kt wind areas. May not be any TS force wind in the NW quadrant, and certainly none inthe SE or SW quadrants.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, I still can't believe we are only on storm 'F' and we are in the middle of September....This is unbelievable!!

[Frank2]

Well, we reached Franklin on July 21, 2005, and, everyone was saying the same thing - for a different reason....

[CrazyC83]

In a few years, most recently 1983, we never reached F...

[LarryWx]

Wow, I still can't believe we are only on storm 'F' and we are in the middle of September....This is unbelievable!!

The six NS to date is actually right near average for NS by 9/7. The H/MH are what are below average. Average H ~4 and avg. MH ~1.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think Florence is on her death bed. The LLC is weak and completely exposed, there is absolutely no south side of the circulation, low level clouds are moving at contradictory directions all through the circulation and upper level clouds are racing WNW stretching the system out from SE to NW. I think this is a product of this season where the flow is different at different levels and just not allowing a storm to vertically stack.

[Andrew92]

I think the reason Florence is struggling like every other storm has this year is because of the El Nino that is forming. Not quite as strong as 2002's El Nino, but not far behind. Still, Florence could intensify over the next couple days if it can get away from the shearing conditions hampering it.

-Andrew92

[Thunder44]

It appears that the system is becoming very stretched from west-east, almost as if the systems is opening...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Frank

P.S. If nothing else, Florence is a very un-storm-looking tropical storm...

I think it's expanding. The storm is increasing in size before it does in intensity.