TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[Sanibel]

That's also what I said when I first saw it today, but a closer look shows a broad circulation that should contain enough dispersed energy to rev it back up when it finds favorability.

[cjrciadt]

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

11am position= 19.8, 53.4

[cpdaman]

wxman if u are there would u say the bigger threat to this sytems
development currently is the shear over it or the dry air being entrained from the ULL

i know u posted there is no convergance at the center. i wondered if this was an effect of either shear or dry air or neither

[SouthFloridawx]

How is that shortwave coming out of canada going to be strong enough to reinforce the trough and break down the ridge?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

That shortwave trough is not nearly as strong as the one that previously came through. I would not be suprised if this thing recurved farther west than forecasted to.

Please let me know if this is off-base.

[wxman57]

wxman if u are there would u say the bigger threat to this sytems
development currently is the shear over it or the dry air being entrained from the ULL

i know u posted there is no convergance at the center. i wondered if this was an effect of either shear or dry air or neither

Neither. Shear is gone, outflow is excellent, and there's no dry air around. The greatest impediment is the lack of inflow into a central core. Winds are blowing around a big circle 100 miles across - they're not blowing in toward a center. I think it's possible that the center will reform near a burst of convection somewhere over the next day or so. Until then, it cannot intensify.

[Bailey1777]

I could be wrong here, but it still looks to me like there is more than one circulation at play here and neither wants to give in to the other. Am I seeing things?

[Zardoz]

Well, it's really tough to make out, but when you slow this loop way, way down and concentrate on that naked center, it looks like it's actually tracking NNW or maybe even NW. You have to slow it to a crawl to see it:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Sanibel]

There's evident synoptic shear being pumped into the center by the ULL just to the west with lots of dry air included on water vapor (WV). The reason the storm isn't pumping inflow is because the ULL has wiped out any impetus because of constant scouring of the system with disruptive shear and dry air.

[storms in NC]

I just looked at the Vloop and it is moving WWNW there is only a slight movement to the north
Here are the numbers

Yesterday 18.3N...50.7w. today 19.8 N...53.4 W.

[Sanibel]

WX57:



If there were no shear over this system then the convection would be symmetrical and evenly dispersed over the entire system. The reason half the storm is naked is because it is being sheared off to the NE as you have seen the convection showing the last few days. You can't say "there's no shear over the storm" when the storm itself is completely sheared as it shows.

Run the WV loop. The ULL is bullying this system just to the west.

I feel you are giving totally wrong information.

[Nimbus]

Pressure gradient profile must look like a pie pan.

[Stormhunter27]

Hi all,

Quick question:

What do you think of the CMC runs? Right now it's got Florence heading for a direct hit on Nova Scotia, but it's the only model to do so. I've been watching over the past few days and it's been really consistent, but again, it's not behaving like the rest.

Is this one out to lunch or what?

Pro-mets?

M

[gatorcane]

I just looked at the Vloop and it is moving WWNW there is only a slight movement to the north
Here are the numbers

Yesterday 18.3N...50.7w. today 19.8 N...53.4 W.

seems to be moving right along the forecast tracks, again I see about a 99.9999% chance of recurvature

[cpdaman]

that does look to be one large ULL , (although i can't tell which clouds belong to who) but what happens as the ULL approaches the stalled out front off east coast right now

[AnnularCane]

Man, she is not looking well at all right now. Earlier this morning I thought she was looking better.

[Brent]

She looks very ragged IMO. We can't get a decent looking hurricane this year apparently.

[Trugunzn]

[CrazyC83]

What are the triangular barbs?

[Trugunzn]

Center is exposed

[curtadams]

What are the triangular barbs?

50 knots or more.