TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

[pgoss11]

meaning due to the storm's size it will take longer to consolidate?

[Thunder44]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat06090713_06as.png

Ok so according to that image taken just a very short time ago would indicate a center at 19N and 53W?

Yeah, I posted that a page back already. You can also see it on visible imagery now.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat06090713_06as.png

Ok so according to that image taken just a very short time ago would indicate a center at 19N and 53W?

Yeah, I posted that a page back already. You can also see it on visible imagery now.

In the Dicso they did say that they were not certain on the position of the LLC so, that is understandable.

[Evil Jeremy]

ok so the center really is down by 19 right now and this looks horrible this morning

horrible?!?!?! it is starting to look better than ever before!

[mike815]

well sry not horrible but not getting better orginized right now

[Sanibel]

Florence is wiping out and could be an open wave right now. It has gone through too much shear and dry air and has finally taken a big gulp of dry air while struggling. The LLC is nearly collapsed.

We'll see if it suddenly rebounds today and tonight.


Another victim of 2006?

[Thunder44]

meaning due to the storm's size it will take longer to consolidate?

That's not what I said. But that's probably another reason why it's taking so long to do that too.

[Zardoz]

horrible?!?!?! it is starting to look better than ever before!

Seems pretty strong here:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Opinions, please, on its direction right now. Looks pretty westerly to my untrained eye.

[mike815]

yea looks generaly west still to me too but its tough to pick out the circulation

[Evil Jeremy]

horrible?!?!?! it is starting to look better than ever before!

Seems pretty strong here:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Opinions, please, on its direction right now. Looks pretty westerly to my untrained eye.

im noticing an open spin in the middle of Florence!

[Sanibel]

Is there anyway that the LLC could reform under the convection? Cause if that does happen, then Florence might completely miss the trough.

Your logic is completely backwards. If Florence did reform further back and into the convection it would be more NE and more into the recurve arc. Therefore it would be more likely to recurve - not less likely.

Currently the LLC is VERY weak. So relocation is not out of the question.

[Thunder44]

Florence is wiping out and could be an open wave right now. It has gone through too much shear and dry air and has finally taken a big gulp of dry air while struggling. The LLC is nearly collapsed.

We'll see if it suddenly rebounds today and tonight.


Another victim of 2006?

It's definitely not a open wave. The three buoys to south are reporing NW to WSW winds at last hour.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml

[KWT]

The LLC does look like its naked now though there is still plenty of convection further away from the center. I'm not sure its fair to say the LLC is weak Sanibel, its not super strong but its clearly rotating quite nicely looking at the current loops.

[mike815]

i agree it probably will relocate again being that it is weak

[mike815]

im also wondering if it remains weaker storm longer would it be able to continue to move west longer i know it will turn but will it go further west?

[Sanibel]

Just found the culprit, folks, on the WV loop. The ULL that was just west of Florence has become bigger and is now rolling right over the entire west half of Florence.

The effect is a giant dry flow being hammered right into Florence's heart.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was wondering something about a forecast discussion from stewart the other day. He was talking about a shortwave expected to weaken the ridge enough to allow for a fairly quick recurve as all the models have been progging for a couple of days now.

I have since that discussion have not heard the forecasters mention the shortwave. Is this shortwave they expected still supposed to be the catalyst for the ridge weakening on the west flank to allow for recurvature?

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS
BASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI
OVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER
WINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN
WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

[Bailey1777]

She still looks to have a strong LLC to me but there is no denying that the top is getting pushed further and further away from the center and convection is not nearly as strong. I think she's really in for a fight right now. Any opinions?

[Sanibel]

On second look - it is in a very low minima right now, but the center is still circulating fairly well.

It should rebound later.

[Lowpressure]

Looks to be a LLC at 20 and 53.5. I am not overly impressed however. NHC predicts conditions to improve over and near the system. Conditions need to improve soon or- poof. The year of the naked swirl.