TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

Trugunzn · #201 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:25 pm

Could Fro' go slow enough for the TROF TO MISS IT?

#202 Postby **angelwing** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:26 pm

We just got over a tropical storm here, we don't need anymore rain, we're soaked! Let's hope this doesn't go anywhere near the east coast!

Bgator · #203 Postby **Bgator** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:28 pm

DOes anyone else see a west motion?

ROCK · #204 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:31 pm

Bgator wrote:DOes anyone else see a west motion?

all I see is the LLC relocating under the western side of the main convection. Might miss her first point but won't the second. I would say WNW overall motion. I think this is the end of center reformations. Unless of course, shear increases and disrupts it like earler today.

#205 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:35 pm

TPNT KGWC 070007
A. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 06/2331Z (74)
C. 19.0N/0
D. 50.9W/4
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS -06/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

47A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED 26NM
INTO DG YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT
AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.4 (IRRG CDO)

SCHAEFER/LAURENTI

Air Force Sat estimates are of 3/5/3.5

Trugunzn · #206 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:39 pm

Heres latest GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

more west, around Canada landfall maybe?

HurricaneHunter914 · #207 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:45 pm

Flo kinda already looks like a hurricane. With those deep reds, I don't see anything else that would cause an upgrade.

ROCK · #208 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:46 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Heres latest GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

more west, around Canada landfall maybe?

what about poor Bermuda?.....it get the right eye wall on that run....ouch...

#209 Postby **baygirl_1** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:49 pm

All this talk about Florence possibly (emphasizing the possibly!) taking aim at Nova Scotia has reminded me of several years ago when we went to Nova Scotia for a family reunion. We were on our way back to the states when a hurricane was threatening the Northeast (cannot remember the name for the life of me). Anyway... we heard about the storm on the news in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia the night before we were taking a ferry back across to Portland, Maine. Being from the South, we know hurricanes and were worried. The folks up there were not and didn't have a clue one was even threatening. One couple told us, "We don't get those here!" Fortunately, it took a turn out to sea and spared them.
Side note: My grandmother's name was Florence and she was from Nova Scotia. She died before I was born but they tell me she was a pip! Hope her namesake storm isn't "a pip" and trying to visit home!

Trugunzn · #210 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:50 pm

looks like A Canada landfall more likly now?

#211 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:51 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:All this talk about Florence possibly (emphasizing the possibly!) taking aim at Nova Scotia has reminded me of several years ago when we went to Nova Scotia for a family reunion. We were on our way back to the states when a hurricane was threatening the Northeast (cannot remember the name for the life of me). Anyway... we heard about the storm on the news in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia the night before we were taking a ferry back across to Portland, Maine. Being from the South, we know hurricanes and were worried. The folks up there were not and didn't have a clue one was even threatening. One couple told us, "We don't get those here!" Fortunately, it took a turn out to sea and spared them.
Side note: My grandmother's name was Florence and she was from Nova Scotia. She died before I was born but they tell me she was a pip! Hope her namesake storm isn't "a pip" and trying to visit home!

Would that have been Hurricane Juan?

#212 Postby **baygirl_1** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:52 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
baygirl_1 wrote:All this talk about Florence possibly (emphasizing the possibly!) taking aim at Nova Scotia has reminded me of several years ago when we went to Nova Scotia for a family reunion. We were on our way back to the states when a hurricane was threatening the Northeast (cannot remember the name for the life of me). Anyway... we heard about the storm on the news in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia the night before we were taking a ferry back across to Portland, Maine. Being from the South, we know hurricanes and were worried. The folks up there were not and didn't have a clue one was even threatening. One couple told us, "We don't get those here!" Fortunately, it took a turn out to sea and spared them.
Side note: My grandmother's name was Florence and she was from Nova Scotia. She died before I was born but they tell me she was a pip! Hope her namesake storm isn't "a pip" and trying to visit home!

Would that have been Hurricane Juan?

I'm not sure. What year was Juan? This was like 15 years ago!

#213 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:52 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Flo kinda already looks like a hurricane. With those deep reds, I don't see anything else that would cause an upgrade.

I don't think so yet. I'd only upgrade it to 50 knots (60 mph) now. Not organized enough and no eyewall visible.

Stormavoider · #214 Postby **Stormavoider** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:52 pm

Trugunzn wrote:looks like A Canada landfall more likly now?

Are you basing that on the IR image?

#215 Postby **Bailey1777** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:53 pm

Question with the talk of how large Flo may turn out what is the largest cyclone ever recorded? (Mass wise)

#216 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:53 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
baygirl_1 wrote:All this talk about Florence possibly (emphasizing the possibly!) taking aim at Nova Scotia has reminded me of several years ago when we went to Nova Scotia for a family reunion. We were on our way back to the states when a hurricane was threatening the Northeast (cannot remember the name for the life of me). Anyway... we heard about the storm on the news in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia the night before we were taking a ferry back across to Portland, Maine. Being from the South, we know hurricanes and were worried. The folks up there were not and didn't have a clue one was even threatening. One couple told us, "We don't get those here!" Fortunately, it took a turn out to sea and spared them.
Side note: My grandmother's name was Florence and she was from Nova Scotia. She died before I was born but they tell me she was a pip! Hope her namesake storm isn't "a pip" and trying to visit home!

Would that have been Hurricane Juan?

I'm not sure. What year was Juan? This was like 15 years ago!

Juan = 2003

Nimbus · #217 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:54 pm

The Canadian ridge at 126 hours) looks strong without any hints of weakness directly north.

Trugunzn · #218 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:54 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:looks like A Canada landfall more likly now?

Are you basing that on the IR image?

No still talking about the models trending more west towards Canada. Then added a pic of convection continue firing

Damar91 · #219 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:59 pm

I still say there is an outside shot that Florence misses the trough. She is only going 8 mph. That trough looks like its really booking off the coast.

Bgator · #220 Postby **Bgator** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:00 pm

What level of the atmosphere is this currently beeing steered by, i see no weakness in ridge at any level for now..

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

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