T.S Florence Models Thread

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This one looks very nasty from where I'm sitting. I hope it is wrong.

[Trugunzn]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//cmc/2006090612//slp24.png

This one looks very nasty from where I'm sitting. I hope it is wrong.

CMC really shifted west

[Derek Ortt]

the CMC storm looks to be a larger than Wilma sized Juan

[cycloneye]

255
WHXX04 KWBC 062330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.6 51.2 295./ 8.0
6 18.7 51.6 281./ 3.5
12 19.0 52.4 290./ 8.7
18 20.1 53.5 316./14.9
24 21.0 55.2 298./18.1
30 21.8 56.1 311./11.5
36 22.4 57.8 292./16.9
42 23.0 59.0 296./13.0
48 23.6 60.4 292./13.9
54 24.0 61.4 294./10.2
60 24.6 62.5 296./11.7
66 25.2 63.5 303./11.2
72 25.8 64.4 300./ 9.5
78 26.4 65.1 315./ 9.1
84 27.0 65.8 313./ 8.4
90 27.8 66.3 326./ 9.3
96 28.6 66.6 337./ 8.7
102 29.3 66.9 338./ 6.8
108 30.3 67.1 349./10.3
114 31.3 67.0 3./ 9.9
120 32.4 66.9 5./11.2
126 33.6 66.6 15./12.0

[hial2]

255



FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

Look at the heading forecast...classic stair-stepping...

[Praxus]

Not very patriotic of the CMC, that's right into halifax, a city of 400,000

[SouthFloridawx]

587
WHXX01 KWBC 070038
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE (AL062006) ON 20060907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060907 0000 060907 1200 060908 0000 060908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 52.0W 20.7N 54.1W 22.1N 56.4W 23.3N 58.9W
BAMM 19.3N 52.0W 20.4N 54.0W 21.6N 55.9W 22.8N 58.1W
A98E 19.3N 52.0W 20.2N 53.6W 21.3N 55.3W 22.6N 57.1W
LBAR 19.3N 52.0W 20.6N 53.9W 21.9N 56.0W 23.2N 58.4W
SHIP 45KTS 49KTS 55KTS 63KTS
DSHP 45KTS 49KTS 55KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060909 0000 060910 0000 060911 0000 060912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.3N 61.1W 26.4N 64.7W 28.1N 66.7W 29.3N 66.8W
BAMM 24.2N 60.0W 27.1N 64.0W 29.3N 66.5W 29.7N 66.8W
A98E 24.1N 59.3W 27.4N 63.6W 30.0N 66.0W 32.2N 65.4W
LBAR 24.3N 61.1W 26.5N 65.7W 29.1N 67.7W 32.2N 67.7W
SHIP 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS 94KTS
DSHP 73KTS 87KTS 95KTS 94KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 52.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 48.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 225NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

[Trugunzn]

GFDL is now furthur west. So i guess models had trended west this afternoon?

[cycloneye]

[Indystorm]

Notice that most of the models have Flo at 60 W while still south of 25N. That makes me nervous even with a progged curve because it could indicate that the westward trend is continuing because of a strengthening ridge to the north.

[wxman57]

Why are there 2 model runs threads???? It's difficult enough to keep up with the discussion in the "TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5". Do we really need 2 such threads? I'll be posting in the other thread rather than duplicating posts here.

[Steve H.]

Got a point there Indy. That is still a dangerous position considering some uncertainty in my mind with the synoptic setup. 18Z Nogaps also takes it close enough for dicomfort. Remember this is a LARGE storm and effects will be felt hundreds of miles in either direction. The surf on the EC will definitely be UP!

[cjrciadt]

Why are there 2 model runs threads???? It's difficult enough to keep up with the discussion in the "TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5". Do we really need 2 such threads? I'll be posting in the other thread rather than duplicating posts here.

I believe the reason was the main thread was being cluttered, thus having data lost in multiple pages.
Back to Flo how large can see possibly grow to the point of affecting the NE in TS force winds at least? (200+nm miles)

[wxman57]

Why are there 2 model runs threads???? It's difficult enough to keep up with the discussion in the "TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5". Do we really need 2 such threads? I'll be posting in the other thread rather than duplicating posts here.

I believe the reason was the main thread was being cluttered, thus having data lost in multiple pages.
Back to Flo how large can see possibly grow to the point of affecting the NE in TS force winds at least? (200+nm miles)

Perhaps someone should remove the word "model" from the main thread, then. Make it a general chat thread.

[cycloneye]

I think it's a good idea to have the models separated from that main thread as the data from the models can get lost with the many posts that are in those threads.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

I think it's a good idea to have the models separated from that main thread as the data from the models can get lost with the many posts that are in those threads.

Yes, I agree 100%. I like coming here and finding models and model discussion - and little of the fluff that unfortunately clutters the other Analysis thread.

[Rieyeuxs]

Are the models running long enough yet to show any potential looping?

[SouthFloridawx]

Good initiation of the low and synoptics.

[deltadog03]

actually that may** be too far east for the intitial.

[SouthFloridawx]