TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

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wxman57
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#161 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:comments on the WRF? It doesn't recurve it.


What WRF? Former ETA/NAM or the HWRF? The WRF only goes out 84 hours, that's prior to recurvature. Besides, the extrapolated track beats the WFR/NAM/ETA most of the time. ;-)
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#162 Postby alan1961 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:35 pm

I think because it is at such a highish latitude the models are tending to be in agreement..how many storms at this high up in the atlantic have actually gone on to affect say any portion of Florida for instance..i doubt many.
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#163 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Forence appaears to be strengthening. Is the center finally under the convection?
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#164 Postby huricanwatcher » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:39 pm

Lets hope FLO isnt a close cousin to FLOYD :roll: :roll: :roll: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#165 Postby jasons2k » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:comments on the WRF? It doesn't recurve it.


What WRF? Former ETA/NAM or the HWRF? The WRF only goes out 84 hours, that's prior to recurvature. Besides, the extrapolated track beats the WFR/NAM/ETA most of the time. ;-)


These screen shots are from the experimental WRF run by NCAR.

I believe the 4KM version will replace the GFDL when its operational.

Edited - the screens are the 12KM version.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#166 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:comments on the WRF? It doesn't recurve it.


What WRF? Former ETA/NAM or the HWRF? The WRF only goes out 84 hours, that's prior to recurvature. Besides, the extrapolated track beats the WFR/NAM/ETA most of the time. ;-)



The NCAR WRF-ARW 12km Hurricane Forecast goes out 120 hours... though lately it hasn't been updating. :(
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#167 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:44 pm

Trugunzn wrote:WRF has it going more west now:



Ummm ... that run is from yesterday, it looks like ...

Initialization time 00 UTC Tue 05 Sep 06
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#168 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:45 pm

Noticed some cloud divergence out ahead of the storm near 25 N 60 W. Is that a sign of high pressure building or the ULL starting to weaken?

I'm all for Florence using up the peak of the season churning the Atlantic before harmlessly recurving out to sea but she needs to get west past 70 to miss Bermuda.
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#169 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:50 pm

This is from today's WRF run at that site, which seems to only have data out to 75 hours so far ...

Image
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#170 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:02 pm

18Z NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#171 Postby rockyman » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:08 pm



Shows Flo recurving..perhaps more interesting is another (probably spurious) low center moving out of the far SW Caribbean toward the Gomex (NAM seems to like this scenario...since it has forecast other lows over Colombia to do the same thing...perhaps it is having a hard time with the heat low persistent over this area)
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#172 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:11 pm

got to love the NAM with its phantom storms... :D
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#173 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:29 pm

18Z GFS is now out to 138 hours. No surprises ... a little faster than the 0Z but pretty consistant on track and synoptics. A little faster and shallower with the trough, but apparently not enough to impede recurvature in any way.
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#174 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:33 pm

x-y-no can i see the rest of that wrf track?
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#175 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:36 pm

And here's today's AR-WRF run now complete out to 120 hours:

Image

It looks to be a little left of the GFS, but not a lot. And if we look at the mid-levels:

Image

we see that there's no ridge left over the top of the system so the track after this point will be north then veering northeast.
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#176 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:39 pm

Trugunzn wrote:x-y-no can i see the rest of that wrf track?


I'm just doing my usual trick of grabbing images from the directory ... I tried using the nifty page they've got for viewing but it doesn't work in Opera.

Here's the directory with today's run: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/hur12/2006090600/
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#177 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:41 pm

x-y-no wrote:And here's today's AR-WRF run now complete out to 120 hours:


I would just note that this model run is from last night, and is almost 24 hours old....
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#178 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:51 pm

This thing is really getting organize!

Image
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#179 Postby jabber » Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:55 pm

That is going to be one large storm
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#180 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:03 pm

this thing remains quite sheared, though the shear is showing signs of letting up as the outflow is expanding to the NW quad

This thing when it makes it to the western Atlantic, is going to take up much of that part of the basin. It may pass 100 miles west of Bermuda, and still bring hurricane conditions to the island. May need to hit east Nova Scotia or Maine would get some decent winds out of this (maybe close to gale force judging by the model's pressure gradient)
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