Trough and Frontal System Across GOM

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:38 am

With Florence looking more and more like she will be fish thoughts of the next tropical system come to mind. Perhaps it will be Invest 91. Its that time of year where troughs lifting out of the GOM in combination with TWs could cause the next tropical threat. The GOM has been relatively quiet. Even though many members think the GOM especially WGOM is clear of any tropical systems we know that is not true. Trouble could still brew during the weekend and into next week.

#2 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:31 am

Sorry Kat ... but you know I'm going to respectfully disagree. :wink:

No trouble, no home brew, no problem. Western Gulf is closed for the tropical season. See you next year.

#3 Postby **Bailey1777** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:35 am

Get real Porta, nothing on the horizon but 9/7 and the Western Gulf is closed! Better get out your books.

Stratosphere747 · #4 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:40 am

It was a tongue in cheek comment there Bailey...

While we can always be effected, our chances decrease later in the season.

#5 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:41 am

Bailey1777 wrote:Get real Porta, nothing on the horizon but 9/7 and the Western Gulf is closed! Better get out your books.

I did (get out my books). If this was a El Nino-to-neutral year or a flat-out El Nino year, I would believe that action is possible. But given that this is a neutral-to-El Nino season ... and judging from strong shear all season as well as now active westerlies dipping far south ... I just don't see it happening. Sorry.

Hey look, if that changes ... I'll be the first to post and say "I was wrong" and the first round in the virtual S2K pub will be on me!

And while my previous comments were a little tongue-in-cheek as Strat identified ... these are just my opinions, which don't mean much as a weather weenie!

#6 Postby **Bailey1777** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:49 am

In reading my statement I came across bad to a fellow Texan. Sorry. I just feel that this is going to be the year that the big one is going to be a suprise rather than a long tracker and be a GOM player. Your opinion is sound though so forgive my attitude.

#7 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:51 am

Bailey1777 wrote:In reading my statement I came across bad to a fellow Texan. Sorry. I just feel that this is going to be the year that the big one is going to be a suprise rather than a long tracker and be a GOM player. Your opinion is sound though so forgive my attitude.

Thanks -- but no apology needed, buddy. That's why we have this great venue, to learn, to debate and discuss, to enjoy watching the weather ... and all done (hopefully) with mutual respect. So no worries.

This has been an odd year so who knows ... you may end up being right!

#8 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:10 am

Well history shows us that (except for once) the hurricane season for TX shuts down on Oct. 1. So that leaves us with ~ 3 weeks to go. With the succession of fronts aleady here, our chances look very slim for any more threats.

Of course, I said the same thing a year ago at this time and look what happened...but 2005 wasn't interested in climatology. :wink:

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:13 am

but 2006 is following climatology to a tea so far. Forget 2005. It was an anomaly.

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:30 am

OK, I just did a little poor man's research on neutral-to-weak El Nino tropical seasons and the Western Gulf. Below are close analog years and tropical activity in the WGOM during Sept-Oct:

1963: Hurricane Cindy hit near Hou-Galv (Sept. 16-20) as a Cat-1

1977: Hurricane Babe hit central La coast as a Cat-1 (Sept 3-9)

1986: Nothing

2004: Hurricane Ivan (Sept. 2-24) reached Cat-5 status and eventually made Gulf landfall twice (eastern and western Gulf) ... but it also FORMED in the Central Atlantic and nowhere near the Gulf.

2004: Tropical Storm Matthew (Oct. 8-11) made landfall along central LA coastline.

****************
So you can see there was not much Gulf action in similar years. While it is not impossible to see WGOM action, I think it is highly unlikely.

Johnny · #11 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:14 pm

Portastorm, I agree with you about the gulf more than likely being shut off the remainder of the season. I think I'll book a beach house down in Galveston this weekend, grab a cold beer, stare out over the open gulf of mexico and laugh at it till my heart is content. That should really piss her off! :lol:

PTrackerLA · #12 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:16 pm

I think we're gonna get off easy this year (thankfullly). It's already September 6 and after the first week of October our chances of seeing a big storm around here become very slim. The gulf has been hyperactive the past few years and now we're seeing how slow it can be in a "normal" year. Add to that all the troughs that keep coming down and I'm about ready to throw in the towel on this season (for my area). Bring on winter!!!

perk · #13 Postby **perk** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:51 pm

Portastorm wrote:Sorry Kat ... but you know I'm going to respectfully disagree.

No trouble, no home brew, no problem. Western Gulf is closed for the tropical season. See you next year.

ortastorm

Extremeweatherguy · #14 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:42 pm

I am not so sure that I am ready to call the GOM season over just yet...The NWS is not forecasting any future fronts to affect the area over at least the next week. If our fronts shut off and are replaced by a ridge (which I have heard is a possibility), then we could be open for business once again.

It really all depends on how the next week or two plays out. By then we should be able to see if this is just a false start to fall or the real thing..

^^I doubt this is the real start though, because the HPC shows no more fronts over the next week, and JB thinks we are heading back to a 2006 June/July pattern but "late september style".^^

#15 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:12 pm

It's still late in the 3rd quarter. We still have a whole quarter to go. I would not write off this season in the Western,Central or Eastern GOM just yet. But I do not expect anything like a Katrina,Rita or Wilma. I think we will continue to have the shear issues in the GOM preventing any silliness like that. Just my two cents.

ROCK · #16 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:18 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It's still late in the 3rd quarter. We still have a whole quarter to go. I would not write off this season in the Western,Central or Eastern GOM just yet. But I do not expect anything like a Katrina,Rita or Wilma. I think we will continue to have the shear issues in the GOM preventing any silliness like that. Just my two cents.

I agree SC....wouldnt be surprised to see one GOM issue in Sept or early Oct. Not a carib system but rather the homegrown BOC type. Still alot of heat in the GOM to feed off of....

Damar91 · #17 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It's still late in the 3rd quarter. We still have a whole quarter to go. I would not write off this season in the Western,Central or Eastern GOM just yet. But I do not expect anything like a Katrina,Rita or Wilma. I think we will continue to have the shear issues in the GOM preventing any silliness like that. Just my two cents.

Stop it, I can't wait for the Dolphins game tommorow. (Your reference to the 3rd quarter) :lol:

#18 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:23 pm

Damar91 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:It's still late in the 3rd quarter. We still have a whole quarter to go. I would not write off this season in the Western,Central or Eastern GOM just yet. But I do not expect anything like a Katrina,Rita or Wilma. I think we will continue to have the shear issues in the GOM preventing any silliness like that. Just my two cents.

Stop it, I can't wait for the Dolphins game tommorow. (Your reference to the 3rd quarter)

I'm a Dolphin's fan simply because of Saban!

Damar91 · #19 Postby **Damar91** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:26 pm

skysummit wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:It's still late in the 3rd quarter. We still have a whole quarter to go. I would not write off this season in the Western,Central or Eastern GOM just yet. But I do not expect anything like a Katrina,Rita or Wilma. I think we will continue to have the shear issues in the GOM preventing any silliness like that. Just my two cents.

Stop it, I can't wait for the Dolphins game tommorow. (Your reference to the 3rd quarter)

I'm a Dolphin's fan simply because of Saban!

Tha's okay! We will take fans any way we can get them. Saban does rock. Thanks.

#20 Postby **Steve** » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:46 pm

>>I agree that the GOM now seems to likely have shut down for the season

Not a chance. While there may not be any more systems this year (which I highly doubt), next year would be stacking up to crank. Even so, think Matthew, Lili, Wilma, etc. of the last few years (among others). Gulf season doesn't shut down until late mid-late October. And even still, June, July and most of August < October to begin with.

Steve

Trough and Frontal System Across GOM

Trough and Frontal System Across GOM

Who is online