TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#121 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:58 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I give this storm a 5% percent chance that the models are incorrect and the ridge builds further west to allow for US landfall.

Except for Eastern New England and Western Nova Scotia I give a 20% chance for landfall there,in that the storm could travel a little further west than models have it before it makes it turns north.

I give a 75%, that simply all the models are correct in the turn and there is landfall over Eastern Nova Scotia, New Foundland or none at all.


I agree with that Thunder, all I'm saying, OVERALL, if you look at where the models start with almost every system, by the time landfall occurs, there is almost always a huge margin of error. And yes, people are controling these computers, so maybe it's time for a new type of computer model? Just my 2 cents.
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#122 Postby kenl01 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:00 pm

The models usually are pretty good within a 3 to 5 day range as far as track is concerned, yes. But intensity, forget it ! They sure were COMPLETELY wrong with Ernesto. First it was a cat 3 into TX/LA, and ended up as a small and weak TS in South Florida.
Now that was BAD !
I was actually LOL during the entire Ernesto event.......... :cheesy:
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#123 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:02 pm

kenl01 wrote:Oh no ! The models usually are pretty good within a 3 to 5 day range as far as track is concerned, yes. But intensity, forget it ! They sure were COMPLETELY wrong with Ernesto. First it was a cat 3 into TX/LA, and ended up as a small and weak TS in South Florida.
Now that was BAD !
I was actually LOL during the entire Ernesto event.......... :cheesy:


Yeah, ya know Ken, I just think there are some things that God does not want us to figure out while we are here.
0 likes   

superfly

#124 Postby superfly » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:08 pm

Oh lord it's moving NNE now
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#125 Postby kenl01 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:09 pm

Thunder44 wrote:I give this storm a 5% percent chance that the models are incorrect and the ridge builds further west to allow for a US landfall.

Except for Eastern New England and Western Nova Scotia I give a 20% chance for landfall there,in that the storm could travel a little further west than models have it before it makes it turns north.

I give a 75%, that simply all the models are correct in the turn and there is landfall over Eastern Nova Scotia, New Foundland or none at all.

Let me also add that the models have been so far on the money forecasting this storm's movement and also the sypnotic features developing over the Eastern Seaboard and North Atlantic. I don't think we have another "Erensto" here.


Agreed !
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#126 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:11 pm

general movement is WNW but what you are seeing is a vortex that spun off to the NNE.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#127 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:general movement is WNW but what you are seeing is a vortex that spun off to the NNE.


Yea, and just think...earlier today I got my head bitten off doubting that was the center.
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

#128 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:16 pm

NWS Melbourne thoughts on Floreance:

FXUS62 KMLB 061911
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT WED SEP 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

..."FLORENCE" FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SAT-WED...TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. VIRTUALLY ALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT IN TURNING FLORENCE NORTH BEFORE REACHING 70W LONGITUDE.
THE RESULTING IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BUILDING
INCOMING SWELL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS A DRIER NE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH AND CIRCULATION AROUND FLORENCE. WILL KEEP 20% POPS ALG THE
COAST MON-WED WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR.

&&
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#129 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:18 pm

TampaFl wrote:NWS Melbourne thoughts on Floreance:

FXUS62 KMLB 061911
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT WED SEP 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

..."FLORENCE" FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SAT-WED...TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL EAST
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. VIRTUALLY ALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT IN TURNING FLORENCE NORTH BEFORE REACHING 70W LONGITUDE.
THE RESULTING IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BUILDING
INCOMING SWELL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS A DRIER NE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY MONDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH AND CIRCULATION AROUND FLORENCE. WILL KEEP 20% POPS ALG THE
COAST MON-WED WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR.

&&


personally I think it will be so far away it won't impact the weather much here at all so I would have left POPS in there.
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

#130 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:18 pm

NWS Miami thoughts on Floreance:

FXUS62 KMFL 061808
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT WED SEP 6 2006

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
NHC IS FORECASTING FOR TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH WELL EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WILL BE THAT
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SO WILL
LOWER THE POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.

&&
0 likes   

User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

#131 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:20 pm

NWS Jacksonville thoughts on Floreance:


FXUS62 KJAX 061859
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EDT WED SEP 6 2006

.LONG TERM (SUN THROUGH WED)...LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE HAS FLORENCE MOVING ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK BEGINNING
SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS NORTHERLY JOG IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SECONDARY MEAN LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. FOR JAX CWA...FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE
HIGH HOLDING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY
EXISTING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF JAX CWA WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL
INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO BRING
INCREASE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS RISK FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
0 likes   

User avatar
RevDodd
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:40 am
Location: Fayetteville, NC
Contact:

#132 Postby RevDodd » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:27 pm

OK folks....

So we've either got a classic "Dewey Defeats Truman" situation in the works, or the models are doing exactly what they are supposed to do -- give folks a pretty dang good idea of what's coming 5 days out.

If it's a Dewey Defeats Truman, then the anti-model folks will be able to wear their crowns in undisguised glee. If the models are correc, they'll forget about it until the next time something wicked this way comes.


We've all seen the models in compelte disarray, or split into factions. But rare is the day they all agree so stridently.
0 likes   

User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#133 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:34 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#134 Postby fci » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:34 pm

Wow, 5 PM has TS winds out to 260 miles!
BIG storm, glad it will miss the coast by more than 260 miles.
Last edited by fci on Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#135 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:37 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38113
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#136 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:38 pm

5pm forecast peaks it as a major hurricane on Sunday.
0 likes   
#neversummer

bzukajo
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 101
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:17 pm
Location: MA
Contact:

#137 Postby bzukajo » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:45 pm

So it is a FISH then
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#138 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:47 pm

Not yet.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#139 Postby tracyswfla » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:48 pm

bzukajo wrote:So it is a FISH then


NOT if it hits Bermuda!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#140 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:48 pm

bzukajo wrote:So it is a FISH then


Not a fish as Bermuda,Maine,Nova Scotia,New Foundland may be close or direct to the path.Being the system so large even if it passes well east of New England,that area may get pretty strong winds.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Hurrilurker and 48 guests