TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[skysummit]

I have to go to work so lets see if the models change by this evening.

So what...do we have to wait for you to get back from work to continue discussion Florence?

[boca]

Yes you do skysummit.

[Thunder44]

12z model position may be a little too far north. Probably closer to 18.0N. Unless that center is really just a vortex spinning around the main center further N:

[Starburst]

Florence is just barely drifting it appears

2006090606 40 18.1 -49.8 Tropical Storm
2006090609 40 18.4 -50.2 Tropical Storm

[storms in NC]

12z model position may be a little too far north. Probably closer to 18.0N. Unless that center is really just a vortex:

You know that could be true. Just keep a eye on it and maybe we can see if it is or not.

[skysummit]

If that naked vortex is the true center, check out the new little flare up on the northern edge of it. Plus, those t-storms to the northwest look like they're trying really hard to continue to wrap, but they're having a difficult time doing so.

[gatorcane]

center is bit to the left of the NHC guidance...

[Steve H.]

Of course the "naked vortex" is the center. Its being sheared from the SW. How can anyone possibly think anything else

[skysummit]

Of course the "naked vortex" is the center. Its being sheared from the SW. How can anyone possibly think anything else

\

Hey...here's a question....why do you have to be so freakin' rude?

[mel38]

SAT-TUE...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SE AND WL PROVIDE AIRMASS DRYING
FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND. POP COVERAGE WL DIMINISH TO ISOLD
WITH LOW END SCT INLAND BY SAT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BY SUN AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO ONSET OF NE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WITH IMPINGING HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM WL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
[b]LONGER TERM EVENT AS TC FLORENCE APCHS THE WRN ATLC BASIN. UNCERTAIN
TRACK CONTINUES AS LATEST GFS TRENDING MORE WEST WITH SYS.[/b]

[gatorcane]

its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.

[SouthFloridawx]

Let's see what happens when the 11AM comes out. If the storm is not at the latitude of the next forecast then we know that this one is taking the southern periphery of the track/guidance. The models have continually showed the weakness and eventual turn to the NW and then to the North. I find it hard to go against models in the long term that have repeated the same scenario over and over again. GFS 00Z showed a little farther west movement but, it has since corrected in the 06Z run.

We'll have to wait to see the evolution of the Ridge/Trough/Flo Intesity/ULL in order to get a better fix on the eventual track. IMO at this point we have not seen the evolution of such and should wait for the synoptics to take place to make that call to the north. Remember don't concentrate so much on the 4 & 5 days.

[Thunder44]

its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.

I think it's has more to do with it being still early in day, that's it's still a weak TS and way out in the Atlantic, that people are just no so concerned about it yet. I actually think they are plenty people here already, considering those factors.

[cycloneye]

its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.

I think for being wednesday morning a good crowd is in hand.

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But if Florence does something not expected you will see the attendance go dramaticly up.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here are the previous advisory points...

21 GMT 09/03/06 14.6N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/04/06 14.8N 40.4W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/04/06 15.6N 41.1W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/04/06 16.3N 42.7W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
21 GMT 09/04/06 16.9N 43.8W 35 1005 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 44.8W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/05/06 17.7N 45.9W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 09/05/06 17.3N 47.3W 40 1005 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/05/06 17.4N 48.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/06/06 17.7N 49.5W 45 1003 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/06/06 18.4N 50.2W 45 1003 Tropical Storm

[jlauderdal]

I have to go to work so lets see if the models change by this evening.

So what...do we have to wait for you to get back from work to continue discussion Florence?

no we just have to wait for boca to release a forecast and then we will really know what is happening, until then we are in the dark.

[Sanibel]

Without being rude - it would be impossible to have any other center so close to the obvious one you are seeing in basic meteorology. So persons asking if that is the center are asking something that should already be understood.

Next, we are looking at a probable major here once it gets co-located because Florence shot a good solid core of black IR last night while displaced. That is a sure sign of strong energy waiting to get going. Also, today's diurnal pulse still has a prominent main convection area meaning this isn't losing much even during its minima.

Although all models and TWC charts continue to push this into off-coast recurve the actual surface center itself continues to crawl directly due west and towards the north shore of the islands. I expect it will recurve and official sources are just saying so in advance to project calm for people fearful of a Hugo-type track. But right now it is creeping due west.

I think we have found 2006's "sweet spot" here to the NE of the Antilles. (Similar to 2003)

[gatorcane]

its quite obvious that many people on here only track if it will impact land. As this looks like a fish I don't see many people on here. If that cone pointed at Florida this board would be slammed.

I think for being wednesday morning a good crowd is in hand.

In total there are 133 users online :: 43 Registered, 2 Hidden and 88 Guests [ Administrator ] [ Moderator ]
Most users ever online was 434 on Sun Aug 28, 2005 4:02 pm
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But if Florence does something not expected you will see the attendance go dramaticly up.

interesting statistics, I think you are right if Florence does the unexpected.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

At least if she decided to miss the connection with the trough, and her direction shifts to be an east coast threat afterall, it isn't Labor Day Weekend so folks will still be watching the news now and then and won't be caught completely off guard!

Personally, I think this will be a Carolina threat. And if it doesn't curve into Cape Fear and then head out through VA into the Atlantic, it will be a "missed the connection" scenario and then ... look out central to northern coast of Florida.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If she is stalling right now, or has drasticly decreased forward speed, could the following system "catch up?" and combine with her?