TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
-
Josephine96
-
Josephine96
They probably think the same as Wxman57, in that there coulfd be several vorticies in the large circulation and that the overall broad circulation is moving WNW while the seperate features are travelling in slightly different directions.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
some of the models still show a high building off the NE coast but all vary on size and strength of that high and i think thats going to be a big player in whether a full recurve occurs a stall out inbetween Bermuda and the US.Right now i am feeling slightly more at ease but i suspect that there will be some variations in the models the next few days!
Of one other note i saw that the 11pm postion last night was 17.7N and at 5am it was 18.4N but the cloud swirl that APPEARS to be the center is nowhere near that position but seems to be almost WSW Along with the overlay of the tropical storm position the center is going to miss the 12 hour forecast plot to the south by a decent amount.You'll have to excuse me if this is a wrong read on my part i am just getting off the graveyard shift!
Of one other note i saw that the 11pm postion last night was 17.7N and at 5am it was 18.4N but the cloud swirl that APPEARS to be the center is nowhere near that position but seems to be almost WSW Along with the overlay of the tropical storm position the center is going to miss the 12 hour forecast plot to the south by a decent amount.You'll have to excuse me if this is a wrong read on my part i am just getting off the graveyard shift!
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146154
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
06/1145 UTC 18.0N 50.6W T2.5/2.5 FLORENCE -- Atlantic Ocean
Here is the center right now.
Here is the center right now.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Josephine96
-
Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
-
skysummit
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5305
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Ponchatoula, LA
- Contact:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...
It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.
0 likes
-
storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2338
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
- Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
- Contact:
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23014
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
skysummit wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...
It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.
You can't use the BAM models on a system moving out of the deep tropics. They are generally pretty bad for a situation like this.
0 likes
-
Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
skysummit wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...
It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.
skysummit wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...
It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.
??
These are all 6z
Only the very few you posted show a turn west...
http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/op ... tracks.png
0 likes
-
cinlfla
- Category 2
- Posts: 687
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:16 pm
- Location: Titusville, Florida on the Spacecoast
wxman57 wrote:skysummit wrote:Stratosphere747 wrote:Glad you posted that map 57. Not sure where everyone was getting these model movements to the west...
It's the 06z tropical models that moved west. Plus, all those models in the map are already incorrect since they're all showing a more current northwest motion which everyone knows is not happening right now.
You can't use the BAM models on a system moving out of the deep tropics. They are generally pretty bad for a situation like this.
Yes but what about the fact that those models have the storm moving more to the nw and in fact the storm is still moving more to the w does that not make them invalid.
0 likes
It doesn't ake the models invalid, simply that the curver may occur a couple of degrees further west then they expect, still the same general idea but prehaps just slightly too far east.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products