TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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SouthFLTropics
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#361 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:27 am

Normandy wrote: I dont see how im being decieved. The convection has clearly stopped building westward.

You could be right...Possibly it is due to the convection tightening up which most likely would mean intensification. I was just throwing a theory out there regarding the eclipse. I know that for me I have to look twice after the eclipse to get an idea on what is going on. It can be somewhat confusing.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#362 Postby tgenius » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:27 am

storms in NC wrote:JIMO
Well after looking at the 5 day map I feel better that it is NOT going to hit the any land. So that is good. Go fishing TS Florence


Unfortunately, that 5 day map isn't necessarily indicative of how things are going to play out.. especially considering NHC keeps mentioning it in the discos.. so they are consistent :)
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#363 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:33 am

I worried right now. some models take it more westward at the very end of the runs.
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#364 Postby carve » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:36 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:I worried right now. some models take it more westward at the very end of the runs.
Do you have the links to these maps?
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#365 Postby storms in NC » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:37 am

So it is moving west still?
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#366 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:39 am

WXMan57, doesn't the movement of that center you pointed out look a bit suspicious? Not challenging you or anything, but it looks to be moving WSW
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#367 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:39 am

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#368 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:40 am

The center where wxman57 pointed out looks like it's moving just due north of west on visible imagery.

Look here. Don't click on the floater on the left. The other floater over the Carribean, you see the movement much clear from nightime to daytime.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#369 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:43 am

Image

Is that the center? If it's, then it's much closer to the convection than yesterday.
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#370 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:43 am

Thunder44 wrote:The center where wxman57 pointed out looks like it's moving just due north of west on visible imagery.

Look here. Don't click on the floater on the left. The other floater over the Carribean, you see the movement much clear from nightime to daytime.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Yea thats the one I clicked on
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#371 Postby storms in NC » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:48 am

By looking at this loop it is still going west to me.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#372 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:49 am

One point is that it is still not organizing that quickly. Convection is impressive, yes.

Overall though the ULL is still having an effect.
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#373 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:50 am

If that truly is the center, it sure does look like it's about to wrap around the main convective complex.
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#374 Postby boca » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:50 am

I smell an Isabel type track with Florence with the models trending westward.
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#375 Postby carve » Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:57 am

Sure looks to be moving west..and the spin seems to be to the sw of all the convection
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#376 Postby Normandy » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:02 am

Im interested to see where florence crosses 20 N
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#377 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:02 am

Man oh man....just think if she was in the Carribean right now! Conditions are darn near perfect there!
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#378 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:03 am

The models will catch up later in the day. The center is still exposed but much closer to the convection to the northeast than yesterday morning. Not sure what to make of the new strengthening Canadian ridge forecast yet.
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#379 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:05 am

Normandy wrote:WXMan57, doesn't the movement of that center you pointed out look a bit suspicious? Not challenging you or anything, but it looks to be moving WSW


That was just one image I saw at home. I'm at work now with a lot more resources. It's possible that we still have a larger circulation with several vortices rotating around. There could be another vortex farther west toward the heavier conveciton.

I don't know, on further review, it may be the only center. It's moving west, but clearly the whole system is moving WNW as forecast. The center just keeps reforming and trying to organize. It does look much better organized than 24 hours ago.
Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#380 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:05 am

Its intresting to note that Normandy, the GFDL forecasted it to cross 20N at 48W, which has already been proven to be wrong this morning and judging by the current track that will grow a little as well yet. This probably seems to indicate that the models will continue to shift westwards.
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