TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[skysummit]

To me, it looks like the larger blob has won. I see clouds rotating inward all along the southern side of the large blob.

[Normandy]

^Agreed
Also, check out the MLC the convection is producing

[Thatsmrhurricane]

18.5N 51W ? Anyone have a center fix?

[TampaFl]

NWS MLB thoughts on Floreance:

FXUS62 KMLB 060741
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT WED SEP 6 2006



SAT-TUE...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SE AND WL PROVIDE AIRMASS DRYING
FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND. POP COVERAGE WL DIMINISH TO ISOLD
WITH LOW END SCT INLAND BY SAT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BY SUN AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO ONSET OF NE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WITH IMPINGING HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM WL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
LONGER TERM EVENT AS TC FLORENCE APCHS THE WRN ATLC BASIN. UNCERTAIN
TRACK CONTINUES AS LATEST GFS TRENDING MORE WEST WITH SYS.

.

[stormchazer]

who here thinks that it is likly for Flo to make the recurve?

A recurve WILL happen, likely east of the CONUS, but it could recurve into the coast. Too early to tell for sure.

[ronjon]

I see a disturbing trend in some of the global models this morning - both the 00Z GFS and NOGAPs build in a strong high pressure system from NE Canada and New England that builds south and east - this high merges with the Bermuda High. The GFS model responds by really slowing down Flo. Looks like the 06Z suite of BAMs may be picking up on this with the west turn at the end of 120 hrs. Other models like the GFDL and UKMET keep an active trough off the coast of New England which prevents or delays the Canadian high bridging with the Bermuda one - hence a more eastward turn toward the north this morning. If the high builds in to the north of the storm, this could be a significant threat to some part of the EC - stay tuned.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[skysummit]

If the convection can finish filling in to the north of the small blob and west of the larger blob, this will be one BIG storm in the terms of size.

[TampaFl]

NWS Tampa thoughts on Floreance:

FXUS62 KTBW 060634
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 6 2006


ON A SIDE NOTE MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE WELL TO THE EAST...BUT AS
WITH ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF ANY CHANGES TAKE
PLACE...SO STAY TUNED.

[Stratosphere747]

Does seem that way Sky. It still has that ULL to the west that continues to impede Flo from fully organizing.

If people are going by the models, most have shifted back to the north and east by a fair margin. The 6z GFS even has Flo missing Nova Scotia.

[Normandy]

If the convection can finish filling in to the north of the small blob and west of the larger blob, this will be one BIG storm in the terms of size.

I think that the area we should focus on now is the large area of convection, because it seems to be pulling in the circ quite fast

[Normandy]

Does seem that way Sky. It still has that ULL to the west that continues to impede Flo from fully organizing.

If people are going by the models, most have shifted back to the north and east by a fair margin. The 6z GFS even has Flo missing Nova Scotia.

Have you seen the new GFS run this morning?

[wbug1]

Looking at the IR tracking Florence seems to be heading due west with some wobbles and center relocations.. it's already very large with TS winds extending out over 140 miles from the center. It has intense convection and a really good IR presentation. I really haven't seen any northerly motion up to now.. hopefully for the US it does turn north. That whole area is really boiling right now.

[TampaFl]

5:00AM position:

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, yesterday morning at this time I said that this was absolutely the worst looking TD I have ever seen. This morning based on IR images this maybe one of the best looking TS I have ever seen. One thing I think noone on here can argue with is that this may be the best looking system we have seen so far this year. I am curious as to what the next few days hold for everyone. Maybe Vegas should start doing odds on model runs!!! LOL

SouthFLTropics

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Anyone noticed how the convection COMPLETELY stopped moving westward? How interesting is that....could be indicative of shear though.

What I worry about is that convection drawing the surface Circulation under it....thus doing two things:

1) slowing Florence's westward progress thus giving the Bermuda and Canadian highs to merge
2) help vertically stack the LLC under that ridiculously vigorous MLC that convection is producing.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Anyone noticed how the convection COMPLETELY stopped moving westward? How interesting is that....could be indicative of shear though.

What I worry about is that convection drawing the surface Circulation under it....thus doing two things:

1) slowing Florence's westward progress thus giving the Bermuda and Canadian highs to merge
2) help vertically stack the LLC under that ridiculously vigorous MLC that convection is producing.

I think you may be getting decieved by the IR satellite loop. The eclipse last night might be playing tricks on you. I would wait for a few more hours for some more frames to come in after the eclipse to make a judgement like that. You could be right but these IR images can be extremely deceptive, especially in the few hours right after the satellite eclipse.

[Stratosphere747]

Does seem that way Sky. It still has that ULL to the west that continues to impede Flo from fully organizing.

If people are going by the models, most have shifted back to the north and east by a fair margin. The 6z GFS even has Flo missing Nova Scotia.

Have you seen the new GFS run this morning?

Yes...

It shows no stall and has the turn much sooner..

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Anyone noticed how the convection COMPLETELY stopped moving westward? How interesting is that....could be indicative of shear though.

What I worry about is that convection drawing the surface Circulation under it....thus doing two things:

1) slowing Florence's westward progress thus giving the Bermuda and Canadian highs to merge
2) help vertically stack the LLC under that ridiculously vigorous MLC that convection is producing.

I think you may be getting decieved by the IR satellite loop. The eclipse last night might be playing tricks on you. I would wait for a few more hours for some more frames to come in after the eclipse to make a judgement like that. You could be right but these IR images can be extremely deceptive, especially in the few hours right after the satellite eclipse.

I dont see how im being decieved. The convection has clearly stopped building westward.

[storms in NC]

JIMO
Well after looking at the 5 day map I feel better that it is NOT going to hit the any land. So that is good. Go fishing TS Florence

[wxman57]

Well, yesterday morning at this time I said that this was absolutely the worst looking TD I have ever seen. This morning based on IR images this maybe one of the best looking TS I have ever seen. One thing I think noone on here can argue with is that this may be the best looking system we have seen so far this year. I am curious as to what the next few days hold for everyone. Maybe Vegas should start doing odds on model runs!!! LOL

SouthFLTropics

IR images are not very good to track weak storms. In most cases, you just can't locate the center on IR imagery, so you're fooled into thinking a storm is stronger than it really is. The center is about 100 miles west of the convection near 18.1N/50.6W, as evident by the first visible images.