TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Wx_Warrior]

Blob breaking off to sw...then moving to florida...

[Damar91]

Good night all! We shall see what the morning brings.

[Dynamic]

My best opinion is the following:

Based on the following loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html from 19:15 to 02:15 UTC the movement was

19:15 - 22-15 WNW
22:15 - 01:15 W
01:15 - 02:15 W (or maybe WSW, I see a little step to the S in the last hour)

You guys always have the reason, and I'm sure that the NHC will adjust the forecast more to the left one more time.

[ROCK]

After looking at the vis....it looks like this SW center might be rotating around the main. Someone on here posted this or maybe it was Dr. Masters. But it looks maybe this is whats happening attm....That LLC wants to keep building WSW....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jaxfladude]

Still way too early to tell what she wants to do..

Tropical systems, hate or love them they always find a way to hook you or hit you......so goes life as we know it.........

[ROCK]

Blob breaking off to sw...then moving to florida...

No one said that. The possibility exists that the more westward Flo goes and slower the more FL is put at risk.

[Josephine96]

so true Jax..

[cpdaman]

i think this ULL could be the wild card in the whole scenario models shear forecast's are based on this being in a protected anti cyclone from this feature

however the ULL seems to be dropping south south west while the storm is headed west. either way the gap between the two systems appears to be closing and i wonder if this will continue and if the NHC will barely mention it (till they are on top of each other like during ernesto moving to south fl with an ull about 100 miles to the north west.

[Indystorm]

I think the center is to the north of the smaller blob of convection at 11 p.m. central time this Tuesday. The most intense convection is to the east, with convection forming to the south and now on the north. The west side is still feeling the effects of shear which is forecast to lessen. I am also impressed with the geographic size of this cyclone at present as NHC has noted. I worry that this may be a very large system geographically once it gets organized.

[tgenius]

I'm guessing the Eclipse is happening later, but the last few frames of IR show the big blog of convection zigging down then up... or our favorite word... a WOBBLE

[gatorcane]

I think we are again seeing a major flaw in how models handle ULLs and big TUTT lows - we saw it with Ernesto and now we are seeing it here.

The W to WSW movement we are seeing is a combination of Florence trying to consolidate but also water vapor imagery analysis shows that the ULL off to the NW is moving SW.

I suspect the ridge north of Florence is quite a bit stronger than the models are saying and is the reason why the ULL AND now Florence is getting a shove to the SW....

I am very curious what we wake up to tomorrow. If we don't see a true WNW movement soon, then I think some big changes in the track will be underway.

We should hope very seriously that that blowup on the SW side where i think some center is currently located does not end up being the dominant one...- things will change *drastically* with intensity and more importantly track.

[miamicanes177]

00Z GFS shifts further west
18Z GFS 138 hours
00Z GFS 174 hours

[baitism]

We should hope very seriously that that blowup on the SW side where i think some center is currently located does not end up being the dominant one...- things will change *drastically* with intensity and more importantly track.

Yeah I dont know. It sure looks like its circulation is becoming better defined....

[gatorcane]

Latest IR loops shows the SW blob - where the center could be located - still losing lattitude and the islands are on the far left of that picture getting closer. I will hope for it to "pull up" tonight because it is losing lattitude still.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[PTrackerLA]

I just don't see how the smaller blob could take over at this point. The area of convection on the northern side of this huge circulation is very intense. Almost looks like Florence wants to split in two, but I don't think that's possible.

[Toadstool]

Latest IR loops shows the SW blob - where the center could be located - still losing lattitude and the islands are on the far left of that picture getting closer. I will hope for it to "pull up" tonight because it is losing lattitude still.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Hopefully it will turn northward soon... The closer it gets to Hebert's Box without curving, the more worried I become!

[gatorcane]

I just don't see how the smaller blob could take over at this point. The area of convection on the northern side of this huge circulation is very intense. Almost looks like Florence wants to split in two, but I don't think that's possible.

I think the smaller blob is trying to wrap the larger blob around it. Hopefully the larger blob will dominate but I think it is going to get sheared to bits as the night wears on.

[Zardoz]

...still losing lattitude and the islands are on the far left of that picture getting closer...

Yeah, it's basically headed for the Virgin Islands right now:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Certainly it'll turn north before then?

[windnrain]

Is it possible to have multiple centers, and multiple swirls? Something about the look of it though makes me think, that southwest swirl is the strongest and the one that will dominate it's steering. This is completely amateur, but if you watch the IR loop closely, you can visably see that once it reaches that blob of convection, the direction of the cloud flow changes dramatically and sharply, and then right to the east of it.. it curves north. It's almost like a conveyer belt if you watch the system as a whole... starting from the north of the little blob, you see stuff get pulled to the west of the little blob... then the south, then the east... and then, what seems weird to me, is that it gets pulled east again, and travels around the larger blob, but not as strongly?

Does that make sense, or does it just sound weird?

[gatorcane]

maybe, just maybe that SW blob is trying to break away from the rest of the huge sheared blob....