TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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boca
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#241 Postby boca » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 pm

If that center is SW of the blob it will be interesting to see what formation Florence will look like in the am. I agree with gatorcane on the movement of 270.
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Damar91
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#242 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:56 pm

This graphic says alot.......

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... d120?large
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#243 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:58 pm

I do think the problem is knowing where the exact center of circulation is. I think in 24 hours when the center consolidates more it will be much easier to follow the heading
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#244 Postby Zardoz » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:58 pm

Help me out here, people. I'm seeing WSW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Am I blind?
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BensonTCwatcher
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#245 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:01 pm

The center has been oblong for about 24 hours. The NE center vort. had the main convection and still does, thesmaller blob is over the sw vort. center. The true center is right about where the NHC has it. BUT it is still moving west right now
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HurricaneBelle
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#246 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:01 pm

Bgator wrote:IMO i like stewarts discussions more, alot more detailed...They didnt explain to much in the 11pm discussions, yes it did help some, and who is brown, never heard of him...


You're doing a heckuva job, Brownie!
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#247 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:01 pm

not blind..yes..WSW
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#248 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:03 pm

Well, we all must be blind b/c the NHC still says WNW :)
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#249 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:03 pm

Zardoz wrote:Help me out here, people. I'm seeing WSW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Am I blind?



Well, if thats the center the NHC has then I would say tad south of west....your not blind, I am, sitting here watching this screen for 6 hours.. :lol:
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Damar91
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#250 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:03 pm

Zardoz wrote:Help me out here, people. I'm seeing WSW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Am I blind?


No, I see it too.
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boca
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#251 Postby boca » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:03 pm

Yes a 270 heading which is south of due west. I think the track will shift left by 5am with this type of movement, what do you all think?
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#252 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:05 pm

Maybe the NHC is worn out :lol: I can't believe this that they keep saying WNW.. It's moved much more west than north..
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#253 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:05 pm

If this continues, a major track change would be in store.
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BensonTCwatcher
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#254 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:05 pm

here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

turn on the lat lon and forecast points...

use the NHC center, squint, put one hand on head, take both feet off teh floor and what do you see???
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#255 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:07 pm

I smell a conspiracy... :lol: if they put the center to the SW then if that center fades and the NE does become the main center then the consensus is it has been moving wnw and they were right all along and there forecast points hold....who said educated gambling?? :lol:
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#256 Postby cinlfla » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:07 pm

skysummit wrote:Well, we all must be blind b/c the NHC still says WNW :)


I think someone at the NHC has made a boo boo this is not moving wnw.
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#257 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:07 pm

Before you start jumping all over this, watch the ULL to the northwest. Attm, it's not moving anywhere, and remember Chris? The ULL backed right into it. Not saying this will have the same fate, just something to watch tonight and tomorrow. Assuming it survives, I see a major hurricane by Sunday.
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#258 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:09 pm

Damar91 wrote:If this continues, a major track change would be in store.
very true. If it moved WSW it could miss it's oppurtunity to turn north and would probably head right for the SE U.S...potentially putting FL at the highest risk.
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#259 Postby Damar91 » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:10 pm

cinlfla wrote:
skysummit wrote:Well, we all must be blind b/c the NHC still says WNW :)


I think someone at the NHC has made a boo boo this is not moving wnw.


All right, who's going to call them? :lol:
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ROCK
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#260 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:10 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Damar91 wrote:If this continues, a major track change would be in store.
very true. If it moved WSW it could miss it's oppurtunity to turn north and would probably head right for the SE U.S...potentially putting FL at the highest risk.



Yep, more west more FL to EC is in play....
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