TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #181 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:02 pm

Hey if it misses the trough in a strong ridge builds to its north?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

ConvergenceZone · #182 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:03 pm

my local met here also said that this very well could be an east coast threat and to be prepared....He also mentioned the building of the high to keep in from turning out to sea..Of course this is only one local MET's opinion is all.......

margaritabeach · #183 Postby **margaritabeach** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:04 pm

Josephine96 wrote:The models make it look like this things got an easy trip to the Carolinas ahead.

I'm thinking it's going somewhere between Florida and the Carolinas.

don't the models show this turning well before the States...what models are u referring to?

Josephine96 · #184 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:05 pm

Hey.. lets not wish anything on New Orleans please :eek:

.. That'd be a bit tough to swallow..

Scorpion · #185 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:05 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Hey if it misses the trough in a strong ridge builds to its north?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

That's what I'm worried about. Luckily, a more Floyd like situation looks likely.

Bgator · #186 Postby **Bgator** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:06 pm

Im worried that if this trof keeps moving, and it doesnt pick up Florence and that ridge build in, it will saty west, and hit the east coast...thouhg its not looking likely, i say a floyd is somewhat liekly..

Zardoz · #187 Postby **Zardoz** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Hey if it misses the trough and a strong ridge builds to its north?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Worst-possible-case scenario, then?

Josephine96 · #188 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:07 pm

Ok.. maybe the models see it being a fish.. :wink:

They looked to me like it was gonna go NW to the Carolinas.. If I'm blind as a bat.. {which probably does happen 1nce in a while :lol:

} forgive me..

#189 Postby **amawea** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:07 pm

CapeVerdeWave, I also feel the trough is going to pull out or back west and the ridge will back in from the east. It's a week away and a lot of changes are on the plate, for our thinking as well as the models.

JTD · #190 Postby **JTD** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:07 pm

The one good thing is that if this does affect the U.S.E.C indications are that it will be badly sheared by the time it makes landfall (especially if it makes landfall further north. Look at Isabel/Floyd/Fran. All were sheared before landfall)

Read that in a post way earlier in the day.

Scorpion · #191 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:09 pm

jason0509 wrote:The one good thing is that if this does affect the U.S.E.C indications are that it will be badly sheared by the time it makes landfall (especially if it makes landfall further north. Look at Isabel/Floyd/Fran. All were sheared before landfall)

Read that in a post way earlier in the day.

You cannot assume this far out. Even so, they were very destructive storms.

#192 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:09 pm

Yep, the wv loop indicates the upper low cutting off west of Florence is now acting to ventilate the storm. That should aid intensification now that the center is consolidating.

Now for some more climo from the Coastal Services Center web page. Here's a plot of all Aug/Sep storms that came within 65 miles of 17.5N/49W since 1851. Note the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 is in ther, along with Gloria of 1985. That powerful Galveston 1915 hurricane is still there, too. Must have been a strong high that built to its north in 1915:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence10.gif

To make your own climo maps, go here:
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Stormavoider · #193 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:10 pm

Stormavoider wrote:http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

What am I missing here? 17N 47W is not right is it? If it is, has the center has relocated to the east? HELP!

Can anyone make sense of this?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #194 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:10 pm

Hugo was not sheared, also Charley had a trough/weakness pull it. Which strengthen it. About the same quad of the trough will be lifting this. The thing is it has to do it right or it will be sheared.

boca · #195 Postby **boca** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:11 pm

Been gone all day and now playing catch up ball. Is Florence that small area to the SW of the blow up convection at 50W and 17.5N or is Florence under that blow up?

ROCK · #196 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:11 pm

Stormavoider wrote:http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

What am I missing here? 17N 47W is not right is it? If it is, has the center has relocated to the east? HELP!

Going to say this again and maybe a Pro Met can back me up this time..... :lol:

On the vis loop you can see a LLC moved up under the convection to the NE and (boom goes the dynamite) the convection explodes. You can also see what to me is a second weaker center spin off to the SW and fading. I say fading but it is trying fire some convection but probably won't last as a center looks to be more established to the NE.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Stormavoider · #197 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:13 pm

ROCK wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

What am I missing here? 17N 47W is not right is it? If it is, has the center has relocated to the east? HELP!

Going to say this again and maybe a Pro Met can back me up this time.....

On the vis loop you can see a LLC moved up under the convection to the NE and (boom goes the dynamite) the convection explodes. You can also see what to me is a second weaker center spin off to the SW and fading. I say fading but it is trying fire some convection but probably won't last as a center looks to be more established to the NE.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Am I missing something on that QuikSCAT?

JTD · #198 Postby **JTD** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:13 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Hugo was not sheared, also Charley had a trough/weakness pull it. Which strengthen it. About the same quad of the trough will be lifting this. The thing is it has to do it right or it will be sheared.

Speaking of troughs and the synoptic set-up, etc., does this set-up look at like like the set-up for the Long Island express?

A trough helped Wilma get back to cat 3 before Florida as well.

#199 Postby **Tertius** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:14 pm

Stormavoider wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

What am I missing here? 17N 47W is not right is it? If it is, has the center has relocated to the east? HELP!

Can anyone make sense of this?

I'm guessing the poster is looking at all the convection on the radar without realizing that the actual center of the storm is just SW of all that activity.

Stormavoider · #200 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:14 pm

Tertius wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

What am I missing here? 17N 47W is not right is it? If it is, has the center has relocated to the east? HELP!

Can anyone make sense of this?

I'm guessing the poster is looking at all the convection on the radar without realizing that the actual center of the storm is just SW of all that activity.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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