TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[skysummit]

[JonathanBelles]

im likeing a track between the extrap and the BAMD

[shaggy]

the one thing that is concerning me (alittle) is that the models almost all show this storm moving on a more N component than it is at current time so the gfdl even tho it shows recurve it has the storm moving the wrong way from the very start.That along with the statement in the 5pm dsicussion about each model run being more west and that the trough may be to weaker than they think is not a good thing but by no means is a clear indication of a real threat to the US either.

[NFLDART]

i dont have much faith in the models at all so far this year

[Scorpion]

Problem with the runs is that the storm is still moving just north of due west. Until a good center is initialized then I don't trust them.

[jaxfladude]

I hope it does not pull a Dora, atmospheric conditions for such a track are very rare, thankfully. Just about the only way that Jacksonville, Florida can get a very near/direct T.S./Hurricane hit from the east off the Atlantic Ocean...........
* edit: Only time will tell the tale of Tropical Storm Florence(2006)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got thinking about the name Florence, it sounds good next to Andrew,Floyd,Ivan,Dennis,Mitch,Gilbert,Wilma,Rita,Hugo,Fran,Emily, ect...It sounds like its a hard hitter name most likely the strongest name for this season.

[SCMedic]

There has been a lot of "bad word" speaking around here in Charleston... Any similarities?

[Scorpion]

Florence and Isaac sound good together

[JtSmarts]

Florence would have to REALLY stay on the south side of the guidance to have a Hugo like track. Hopefully she starts picking up more latitude once her center really starts to consolidate.

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite good tonight!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

I have had faith in the GFS/GFDL especially the GFS...come on guys....Quit hating on the models, thats what they are models. I think I am siding with models than some opinions on here...

[MiamiensisWx]

This is NOT a forecast or an official one, nor is it intended to pin down any landfall location.

I'm beginning to believe that the eastern CONUS shortwave-like trough may not entirely pick up Florence. As the ULL may be keeping the LLC of Florence further south and since the ULL is moving slowly, it may be slowing the forward speed and consolidation/organization of Florence, as evidenced somewhat on this infra-red imagery.

At the same time, the Eastern Seaboard shortwave trough is already nearing the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and is about to exit into the deep southeastern U.S., where the southern half of the trough may cut off in Georgia and the southern Carolinas. All this is evidenced here. The southern portion of the trough, therefore, may not be sufficient to entirely pick up Florence. At the same time, the northern half of the trough may already be getting ready to gradually pull out, with the Canadian ridging building in in earnest.

Do NOT take this as -removed-. It is just another piece of the puzzle that may need to be considered.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm more worried about a track like the "Great Atlantic Hurricane" of 1944 than on like Hugo, but we will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1938 long isalnd express was stronger it made landfall at around cat3.

[Wx_Warrior]

East Coast needs to be prepared this weekend for something that could be nasty next week.

[MiamiensisWx]

You can really see the trough moving out rather steadily on this loop, with subtle signs of the Canadian ridging beginning to build in already in place. Given the position of Florence's LLC, the gradual organization, and the faster movement of this trough outward, it is possible we may see possibly a more substantial threat to the Eastern Seaboard down the road. I am beginning to notice this. Not hyping, but this is getting a bit concerning, as this could lend support somewhat to the western Atlantic and Canadian ridging merging quicker just as Florence may begin to approach the longitude of Puerto Rico.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Stormavoider]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png

What am I missing here? 17N 47W is not right is it? If it is, has the center has relocated to the east? HELP!

[Josephine96]

The models make it look like this things got an easy trip to the Carolinas ahead.

I'm thinking it's going somewhere between Florida and the Carolinas.