TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[fci]

Let

Models.... Pro Mets..... and Climatology.... all say that Florence will curve away from the mainland U.S.

FWIW, the 18Z NGP is quite a bit further W than the 12Z and while it doesn't show a hit, based on the 144 hr position it's hard to see how it misses the US.

Do you have a link to the NGP 18Z?
Mine is giving me the message "entire grid undefined".

[Sanibel]

Don't worry, if 91L back-ends Florence it will Fujiwhara Florence west - BUT - it will eventually jack 91L up and over Florence where it will create a weakness in the synoptic that will drag both of them into recurvature.

Don't look for 91L to catapult Florence west.

[Trugunzn]

Here we go! Convection continues to really intensify, from here one this will grow and intensify.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

Also it seems it is very very slow or stalled.

[Bailey1777]

yeah ok.

[gatorcane]

looks like the center is moving WSW based on IR loops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

WOO BOY!

That thing is BLASTING red and black-top IR.


WAIT TIL THIS THING CO-LOCATES!

[Trugunzn]

looks like the center is moving WSW based on IR loops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I expect models to trend back more south west

[Cyclenall]

New % chance of Tropical Storm Florence becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 77%
Category 2 Hurricane: 60%
Category 3 Hurricane: 51%
Category 4 Hurricane: 28%
Category 5 Hurricane: 3%

Those are my thoughts on that.

First % chance of Tropical Storm Florence recruving out to sea:

Re-curve (No land effected): 55%
Re-curve (Some land effected): 50%
Re-curve (Lots of land effected (US)): 45%
Re-curve (Florida getting hit): 15%
No Re-curve at all: 10% (could change rapidly)

Thoughts on track re-curve.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

wow its really getting pushed WSW what a ridge north of it

[Trugunzn]

I think a 50-60mph storm now:

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,I added the storm2k disclaimer to your post.

[Scorpion]

Its not moving WSW, that is an illusion. Still moving around 275.

[cpdaman]

how can your total percentages equal more than 100% , your example equal 175%

now there could be some overlappng but how can there be 55% chance of no land effected and 50 % some land effected that is 105%?

i am not trying to flame, i am just wondering (i could be in the wrong)

[george_r_1961]

Well ive been looking at the loops and heres my take: Its moving GENERALLY wnw. Tropical cyclones do not move in a straight line or smooth curve. The actual direction of movement can change from hour to hour..its the MEAN or average course over a period of time that we need to be concerned about.

[ROCK]

I still think we are looking at two centers. One to the SW that looks to be fading and one to the NE that just exploded.....maybe this is the start of a true center and the end of x98....

[gatorcane]

we better hope the new center relocates to the big blob NE of the current center....tracks would shift left dramatically.

[Sanibel]

No Rock.

The center is the visible spiral and the convection is sheared away from it to the NE.

What you said would be impossible.

The spiral center will remain the center and the convection will move over it. - And watch out when it does!

[gatorcane]

well contrary to what some think, I think the current center has dropped in lattitude some over the past couple of hours....probably just temporary hopefully.

[ROCK]

No Rock.

The center is the visible spiral and the convection is sheared away from it to the NE.

What you said would be impossible.

The spiral center will remain the center and the convection will move over it. - And watch out when it does!

Not stating that the center did not move under the convection to the NE. That is very evident from the latest vis loop...and the insuing explosion of convection. You can see the LLC being drawn in under the blob of convection and then we get take off...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I was just stating another center is fading to the SW...which in my mind is the last of the mulitply center problem.....

[cycloneye]

285
WHXX04 KWBC 052332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 48.0 280./11.1
6 17.5 48.5 309./ 6.1
12 18.2 49.3 313./10.3
18 18.8 50.1 309./ 9.6
24 19.6 50.8 317./10.0
30 20.6 51.3 334./11.0
36 21.4 52.4 307./13.5
42 22.1 53.6 300./12.7
48 22.9 55.0 299./15.9
54 23.3 56.3 288./12.1
60 23.8 57.7 287./14.0
66 24.3 58.8 298./11.3
72 24.9 60.0 295./12.5
78 25.3 61.1 292./10.5
84 25.8 62.1 295./10.1
90 26.5 62.8 313./ 9.6
96 27.2 63.6 314./10.6
102 27.9 64.2 316./ 8.3
108 28.5 64.8 313./ 7.8
114 28.9 65.0 340./ 5.1
120 29.6 65.3 340./ 6.9
126 30.0 65.2 4./ 4.5

18z GFDL has a roadblock for Florence around 65w.