TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[Damar91]

Actually it may be relocating furthur south.

Possibly.. But more than likely westward.

[Trugunzn]

...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY
5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
FORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.

[Weatherfreak14]

I have a feeling that the ridge will remain pretty strong but i would think that cold front models are running could push it out. But florence may get pretty close to the EC. maybe some huge surf for some of the Carolinias.

[fci]

Let's keep in mind that Ernesto was an anomaly where everyone missed the track and intensity. This is not normal and is just not to be expected with every storm from here on out.

Models.... Pro Mets..... and Climatology.... all say that Florence will curve away from the mainland U.S.

Something REALLY weird will have to happen to have Florence NOT recurve. There is nothing right now to indicate that this will happen.

Watch closely, always be ready and prepared but I think we can rest pretty easy that this one is going to recurve.
If you live in Nova Scotia, watch even more closely than us down here in the U.S.

My $.02

[Damar91]

Stay tuned for......The Trough VS. The Ridge...... which will win?

[Trugunzn]

[MiamiensisWx]

This infra-red loop also supports a more westward movement of the LLC in the last few frames.

I am NOT saying there will or won't be an Eastern Seaboard impact. Just making some critical observations.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ooh, Long Island Express!!! Hasn't this been on the Discovery Channel recently! LOL If that were to happen the media hype would be unprecedented. Probably more than what we saw with Katrina!

[Stratosphere747]

The perceived westward movement is being far overplayed. Quite a bit of it was due to a bit of uncertainty of the circulation. Read both discussions......

Not sure why IR is being used when visible is available....

[Damar91]

This infra-red loop also supports a more westward movement of the LLC in the last few frames.

I am NOT saying there will or won't be an Eastern Seaboard impact. Just making some critical observations.

Good eye, CapeVerdeWave. This time tommorow will be telling if this trend continues.

[Weatherfreak14]

This infra-red loop also supports a more westward movement of the LLC in the last few frames.

I am NOT saying there will or won't be an Eastern Seaboard impact. Just making some critical observations.

Good eye, it looks its moving just a tad south also.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not sure why IR is being used when visible is available....

Look back at my posts. Visible loops were the first way I was using to discern a slightly more westward movement of the LLC. No hype, just an observation based on my interpretation of the synoptics and circulation.

[Weatherfreak14]

also the loop shows that the wave behind florence is going to run right into it.

[JonathanBelles]

also the loop shows that the wave behind florence is going to run right into it.

what could that do?

[Stratosphere747]

Not sure why IR is being used when visible is available....

Look back at my posts. Visible loops were the first way I was using to discern a slightly more westward movement of the LLC. No hype, just an observation based on my interpretation of the synoptics and circulation.

Fair enough...

Though it was hard to even ascertain a definitive motion earlier, even with visible. Now that the center has become more defined, than I'm sure the NHC has a better handle on the movement.

Strange that with the little change in the previous advisory coordinates to the west that a WNW heading was still given. Now if that changes at 11, then I'll buy into it...

[Weatherfreak14]

also the loop shows that the wave behind florence is going to run right into it.

what could that do?

I have no clue, this seems like the time alpha ran into wilma.

Will florence feed of the wave behind it?

[Damar91]

One other thing, after looking at the cloud mass that seems to be drawn in to this system, I really think everyone should start praying that this DOES curve........This could be a BIG storm.......(Currently on knees praying!)

[JTD]

I was just going to note that it was moving W at 11, WNW at 5. That would indicate that the storm is moving with more of a north component now than it was prior, if you go by the advisories.

[MiamiensisWx]

I was just going to note that it was moving W at 11, WNW at 5. That would indicate that the storm is moving with more of a north component now than it was prior, if you go by the advisories.

I personally believe the LLC is currently moving just north of due west, but not quite truly west-northwest (though fairly close the NHC 5PM EST movement), per viewing visible GOES loops.

[Scorpion]

Huh Jason? There is a more westward component now than before...