TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

Scorpion · #41 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:52 pm

It is way too early for anyone to make conclusions on where this is making landfall. The models will shift. Florida to Bermuda is at risk.

#42 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:52 pm

Thank so very much that is very cool
Deb

#43 Postby **TampaFl** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:56 pm

5:00PM Floreance postion:

theworld · #44 Postby **theworld** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:57 pm

Scorpion wrote:It is way too early for anyone to make conclusions on where this is making landfall. The models will shift. Florida to Bermuda is at risk.

I think there has been quite a loss of faith in models, most recently. And rightly so. Florence continues to shift as well, but then again, all storms do. I''m very interested in seeing what transpires over the next 5-7 days with most reliable models vs Florence actual path.

Damar91 · #45 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:57 pm

I'm sure everyone noticed that from the 11am advisory, Florence went only .1 North but 1.2 west. Probably nothing........

Scorpion · #46 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 3:58 pm

If it continues on this heading for the next 2 advisories there would be huge ramifications.

Damar91 · #47 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:01 pm

Scorpion wrote:If it continues on this heading for the next 2 advisories there would be huge ramifications.

Scorpion, is it just me or does she not seem to be moving north at all? Hmmm......

jusforsean · #48 Postby **jusforsean** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:05 pm

o.k. someone pls wake me up in 7 days if i need to evacute here, i am going to loooose my mind here, that graphic of the forecast cones is cool, it looks like at the end it jogs north i think

Damar91 · #49 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:06 pm

Yeah, after looking at the loop, not much North movement at all...... Looks to miss the 2nd forecast point to the south by quite a bit.

#50 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:07 pm

looks like a due West movement today based on the plot and now WNW movement has started yet. If it continues, huge ramifications are in store, I have to agree with you Scorpion

MortisFL · #51 Postby **MortisFL** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:08 pm

Look at the convection expanding to the west and south...I dont know might be a LLC relocation?

#52 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:08 pm

Damar91 wrote:Yeah, after looking at the loop, not much North movement at all......

i agree but i also notice that the mid to upper lever of florence is being blown northeast while the remainder moves due west.

Damar91 · #53 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:09 pm

Yes, fact, I noticed that too. The longer she remains south though......

MiamiensisWx · #54 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:10 pm

Not sure anyone has noticed this yet, but on this visible loop, if you look closely at the LLC movement it appears to be moving nearly due west with a slight just north of due west movement (but NOT quite west-northwest). It is is also about to reach 50W while remaining at around 17.9N. In fact, in the last few frames, the LLC appears to have jogged a bit more towards the west. As this may continue through the next 12 hours, this would make the LLC definately south of the NHC forecast track. Anyone noticing this?

#55 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:11 pm

From a pro=met please! Is it possible that 91L and it's gathering circulation could be holding Florence from trying to move Northward at all right now?

Damar91 · #56 Postby **Damar91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:11 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Not sure anyone has noticed this yet, but on this visible loop, if you look closely at the LLC movement it appears to be moving nearly due west with a slight just north of due west movement (but NOT quite west-northwest). It is is also about to reach 50W while remaining at around 17.9N. In fact, in the last few frames, the LLC appears to have jogged a bit more towards the west. As this may continue through the next 12 hours, this would make the LLC definately south of the NHC forecast track. Anyone noticing this?

Yes, defintely. See my above post.

MiamiensisWx · #57 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:14 pm

Damar91 wrote:Yes, defintely. See my above post.

The LLC also appears to be moving slightly faster and more towards the west in the last few frames of this loop, especially as the ULT (upper-level trough) creating shear over it is slowly pulling out.

Trugunzn · #58 Postby **Trugunzn** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:16 pm

Actually it may be relocating furthur south.

jenmrk · #59 Postby **jenmrk** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:16 pm

If anyone can guess, if this westerly movement continues what will happen in the next few days as far as forecast track?

MiamiensisWx · #60 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 4:18 pm

In addition, based on this loop, the ULL just to the northwest appears to be cutting off and weakening and retrograding in the last few frames, additionally helping to reduce shear over Florence. If you look closely, Florence's outflow appears to be getting a bit better organized and expanding slightly to the west in the last few frames, indicating the decrease in shear as the trough pulls out and the ULL to the northwest weakens.

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

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