MortisFL wrote:cycloneye wrote:MortisFL wrote:the gfdl assumes the system will pass 50W at 20N...i dont think thats happening.
That is a sure thing about Florence.Already at 48w.
Yep, and the the GFS derived model suite is on board with GFDL as well...can pretty much throw those out on this run.
MM5 and UKMET are more realistic.
I posted in another thread my thoughts on this system I am going to expand on those and comment again later. At this point I am not going to speculate a landfall point as it would be the death of my forecast. Three days out is a safe forecast until we have a bit better handle on this system.
How I see it is that Currently Flo has very little convection and as long as that is happening it should continue to follow the low level flow until the organization is such to be steered by the Mid to Upper Levels down the road. IMO the general northward track may be adjusted farther south and we may see a more westerly track due to the nature of the current organization.
Also if the current lack of convection continues over the next day or so the effects from the ULL may be limited due to the fact that this would be a low level system rather than the Mid-Upper Level system. ULL's do not steer features that are at the surface they help to shear or steer features that are in the Mid to Upper levels by creating a weakness in the Mid to Upper Level ridge.
There are a few scenario's currently for FLO and I doubt that we'll know more for a few more days.
I expect FLO to move to the south of the NHC forecast points and stay on the southern periphery of the NHC error line. This is because the models are not picking up on FLO very well right now. I expect through days 1-2 that FLO will move westerly maybe wnw under the ridgebut, mainly a little south of wnw.
When flow starts intensifying and is influenced by the mid to upper levels you can start looking at the steering flow in the mid to upper levels at that point.
IMO the ULL they are developing and moving west ahead of the system will be far enough ahead in 3 days not to have a major impact on this system.
As far as 5 days out I don't think the models are quite on the same page and we'll have to wait and see during the next couple of days as they get a better handle on the trough. We all know those models do not do overly well on 4-5 day forecasts. They show a general pattern but, the specifics are off.
Your not kidding! Just like Ernesto, except the other way. These tracks are going from right to left, Ernesto went from left to right. Guess that means those in Mexico should start boarding up! 
