Analysis of Florence: timing may mean everything

[weatherwoman]

Right now, I see four possible scenarios (ultimately). I am going to draw them up. Only one of them makes Florence a fishie.

looks like two of them do

[CrazyC83]

Right now, I see four possible scenarios (ultimately). I am going to draw them up. Only one of them makes Florence a fishie.

looks like two of them do

Scenario 1 approaches or hits Bermuda. Notice that tiny island there.

[sma10]

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Here are the four scenarios I can think of, based on the ridge holding, advancing westward or retreating eastward, plus a potential trough:

Yes, I agree. Florence will have to follow one of these scenarios.

[CrazyC83]

Hopefully #2 - it is the best-case scenario, as long as it doesn't trough north enough to clip Atlantic Canada. Scenario 1 is a repeat of Fabian (perhaps not a direct hit but close enough), 3 is basically a repeat of Isabel, and 4 is Frances adjusted a bit northward.

[SouthFloridawx]

What do you guys think of this synopsis of the current short range situation?

How I see it, is that Currently Flo has very little convection and as long as that is happening it should continue to follow the low level flow until the organization is such to be steered by the Mid to Upper Levels down the road. IMO the general northward track may be adjusted farther south and we may see a more westerly track due to the nature of the current organization.

Also if the current lack of convection continues over the next day or so the effects from the ULL may be limited due to the fact that this would be a low level system rather than the Mid-Upper Level system. ULL's do not steer features that are at the surface they help to shear or steer features that are in the Mid to Upper levels by creating a weakness in the Mid to Upper Level ridge.

[Derek Ortt]

would scenario 1 be the same 1995 Felix that required a Hurricane Warning and a mandatory evacuation for the Outer Banks?

[CrazyC83]

would scenario 1 be the same 1995 Felix that required a Hurricane Warning and a mandatory evacuation for the Outer Banks?

Only in the unlikely scenario of the ridge retreating, then advancing back...that was truly an odd path...

[angelwing]

Awesome CVW!

Crazy, I just hope that the one track of it going into PA doesn't pan out

[wxmann_91]

Great analysis CVW, although I wouldn't trust the EPO or ENSO for the track of one storm.

Another thing, the FSUMM5 model sucks. But, I do agree with the idea of the Canadian High building in. Timing is CRUCIAL, and not just for the Canadian High, but also for the storm itself. Chances are, it will just make it through the connection, and of course Florence recurves harmlessly. There are however two other options. Florence could turn back westward and threaten the CONUS, and recurve afterwards if the Canadian High does not stick. However, another option would be it could turn back westward and affect the U.S., if the Canadian High stalls. Timing of Florence is crucial too, since if is faster, it will recurve, but if it slows down, the forecast gets real tricky.

My favored track is a partial recurvature between Bermuda and the CONUS, a turn back westward, very close call, and then another recurvature, perhaps affecting the Maritimes or out to sea. Of course, it is my opinion to be the most likely scenario, and it is still early. Like Derek said, a Felix 1995.