Strong Looking Tropical Wave in the Caribbean

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

Deep reds are developing over a Caribbean wave. Shear seems favorable for development. Any Thoughts?

[Praxus]

I've just been looking into that...isn't it the old invest 98 ?

[cheezyWXguy]

nope...its 99L on the NRL page

[Extremeweatherguy]

nope...its 99L on the NRL page

This is in a completely different location than 99L was in yesterday though. I am pretty sure 99L is the wave that dissipated in the central Caribbean. This looks to be a different (and better looking) wave.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB mentioned this area on his morning post saying it was coming into a better area for development and needs to be watched.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical wave 2-5 degrees ahead of the convecton. So pretty much a area of convection.

[WindRunner]

This isn't 99L . . . 99L is the one you see on the far left of that avn shot. Per the TAFB analysis, this is just another tropical wave that appears to be flaring up.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Okay thanks. I just thought that this forum needed life since TD#6 is sad looking and apparently is under the impression that the dry air will diappate it..

[x-y-no]

The most recent TWD mentioned this area:

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 55W FROM 8N-21N. THIS
RELOCATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
WHICH SHOW A CLEAR LOW CLOUD INVERTED V WAVE STRUCTURE. ALL OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. THIS POORLY ORGANIZED
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W NEAR 10 KT OR SO.

I'm not convinced the comment about this being associated convection sheared ahead of the wave is correct, it looks more to me like there's just local abundant moisture and convection driven by upper-level divergence.

Seems to me the area is worth watching when the wave gets there in the next couple of days.


And despite all the forecasts of it's impending dissipation, the upper level trough which killed 99L is still hanging about, so who know if anything which did form would survive very long ...

[chrisnnavarre]

For the Central and Eastern GOM areas this wave looks to be the most promising to me. Pressures are remaining steady however at the PR observation stations 29.92 (1012) and 29.93 (1013) but are lower than the area in the NW Bahamas mentioned in the 5:30 Two. Looks like I see a slight twist there as well.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

[chrisnnavarre]

Looks like there's a re-fire of convection for the area this morning...also pressure in the Mona Passage, (Punta Cana, Dominican Republic) is 29.85 - 1011 hPa. Area pressures where holding around 1013 the previous evening.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is the wave you are talking about, associated with the convection blowing up in the Eastern Carib? If so, yes, it does really seem to be refiring this morning. Check out the below Sat, IF that's the one you are speaking of.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[Zardoz]

It's firing up pretty nicely at the moment:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

It's firing up pretty nicely at the moment:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

yep, convection is looking stronger every hour. I wouldn't be surprised to a an invest here within the next couple of days. I'm sure the reason many people aren't interested in this on this forum yet is because they want to see if the convection persists, and I can't blame there there. I'll keep an eye on this all day.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[CrazyC83]

This seems to be more of an EPac threat than anything IMO...

[LaBreeze]

Local mets are saying not to worry about this one.

[Zardoz]

It's definitely growing. Looks like it's getting fed from the northeast:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Kennethb]

Its early September and local mets are saying not to be concerned????

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

They should put out 92L on it...