T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Fusion13]

I was just about to post this... Yes, lets hope it just goes back out to sea.

I see at least 13 storms on this map, and none of them hit the US:

[vacanechaser]

I see at least 13 storms on this map, and none of them hit the US:

good point, but flawed a bit... most of those storms in your map there developed far earlier than td 6 (flo).. that would suggest that as we have seen, most storms that develop too early or too quickly have recurved... this is further west and much weaker... it should remain weaker for a time and be steered more by the trades and not upper level conditions... just a thought..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[mtm4319]

Well if you use 20/50 as potential track crossing and use any storm passing within 100 nm of 20/50 during the month of September as the criteria you get this result for years 1870-Present:

http://radio.nhcwx.com/hurricanes_1850.jpg

So it this holds true then there is a very,very small chance of florence making her way to the U.S. coast.

Now if we choose 18/50 with the same variables we get this result for years 1853-Present:

http://radio.nhcwx.com/hurricanes_2050.jpg

If we go to 22/50 with the same variables we get this result for years 1880-Present:

http://radio.nhcwx.com/hurricanes_2250.jpg


Since 1964 is an analog year maybe Florence will follow a Gladys type track:

http://radio.nhcwx.com/hurricanes_gladys.jpg

Steve O.

I used 20/55 since the forecast path goes straight through there:

[canegrl04]

On CNN their met brought up that it is still too early.She could swing 200 miles either way in her track. I recall all the models were taking Ernesto into the GOM except one.A path can change direction at any time.I' want Flo to go fish

[MiamiensisWx]

Just to bump this over to this side for others to see...

Based on that FSU run and the synoptics, timing, position of the LLC of Florence, and movement of Florence, as well as the synoptic factors of a possible positive NAO and EPO and the timing and intensity of the ridging/troughing will make big differences. Here's a graphic that goes into details on my thoughts on the synoptics and why timing will be everything...



The timing of the two ridging complexes merging, as well as Florence's possible more southerly track, as well as the intensity and movement/speed of Florence and the positive EPO/NAO synoptics, as well as the timing and intensity and speed of rate of the trough progged to approach the Eastern Seaboard, will all make big differences in regards to track and possible threatened areas if Florence impacts the Eastern Seaboard.

Based on the more southerly (south-southwest) relocation of the broad circulation center (LLC) of Florence, as the first ULT (upper-level trough) creating shearing over Florence pulls out, mid-level steering currents and the west-northwest movement of the relocated LLC may support a slightly more southerly track than indicated by the guidance.

Any thoughts? As for Herbert's Box, it has been proven to be unreliable, as synoptics vary. Andrew only clipped Herbert's Box, and the synoptics prove that you can't rely on magic theories for accurate synopsis.

This is not -removed-, either.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

I don't like that track into Palm Beach County, Florida but I think you did a fabulous job explaining the synoptics. Thanks for this effort.

[wxman57]

A little more climo from the Coastal Services Center. I put in a position of 17.2N/48W and did a search of all Aug/Sep storms passing within 65nm of that point. A few reached the east U.S. Coast. One interesting storm, the Galveston hurricane of 1915, is included.

[gatorcane]

again the major flaw in using climatology like this is that this storm formed alot further east than most of the model tracks and it should stay weak for at least the next couple of days thus causing a more westward track.

[cycloneye]

CVW,I put the storm2k disclaimer in your post.That was a great analysis from you but I had to add the disclaimer.

[vacanechaser]

wxman57, i see gloria in there as well as the 1933 storm that had the same sort of path to the coast as isabel... just a little further north on the outer banks... that 1933 storm was one i used as a bench mark for my area here in southeast va. .. then isabel came... very interesting to see...

looks like the carolinas and new york and the northeast were the targets..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

latest visible shows the center a little farther SW then the NHC forecast point.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

again the major flaw in using climatology like this is that this storm formed alot further east than most of the model tracks and it should stay weak for at least the next couple of days thus causing a more westward track.

I don't know about that, if you look at where 17N/48W is, most of those storms were just tropical depressions at that point. Anyway, it's just a curiosity, not a forecast. Landfall somewhere between Galveston, TX and Iceland looks about right.

[wxman57]

latest visible shows the center a little farther SW then the NHC forecast point.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Correct, it's consolidating near 17.2N/48W. Look for another relocation at 3pm. Shouldn't affect the forecast track.

[Stormavoider]

Starting to get some convection firing on the east side.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

EDIT: Make that west side

[Stephanie]

CVW,I put the storm2k disclaimer in your post.That was a great analysis from you but I had to add the disclaimer.

Ditto! Very well thought out.

I don't like either scenerio but the one going to the Carolinas and up the coastline scares the heck out of me!

[jojo]

Looks like there's a face in the convection at 15.45

[terstorm1012]

CVWave...excellent analysis. Now tell me, why aren't you doing this for a living?

it was straightforward, to the point, and really easy to understand all the players in a visual format.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Also that is based upon it's current location, as it heads North of the Islands those maps will of course change. Meaning I wouldn't write it off just yet.

[TampaFl]

11:00AM postion:

[carve]

Is it true that if you follow the clouds that flow out from this...that thats the way it's moving.....i am seeing outflow clouds heading sw...any comments