T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[CrazyC83]

Right now I see a weak tropical storm for the next 2-3 days, possibly dipping back to TD status for a while, then steady intensification.

[gatorcane]

its moving 290 - to the west.

This is huge - models should shift left.

[Sanibel]

A naked spiral should be steered more by the easterly low level currents. (Meaning more west or left of NHC points)

[gatorcane]

THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

What?

[Brent]

[superfly]

interesting, upgraded without any real convection over the center

[Sanibel]

Looks like an oceanic recurver from that track.

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC made a mistake. The track graphic has movement WNW at 13mph but the advisory says West at 13mph....

Why?

[curtadams]

I don't understand why this is so sheared? There's not that much shear around it if you look at the surrounding area. It must be under subsidence or in a very dry air pocket.

NHC track has it pulling up from here, but I'm not seeing that in its motion.

Yeah, weak convection = dry. Shear seems pretty mild. WV shows moisture so perhaps there's some mid-level dry air. There is some SAL about, although it's mild http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg Models and hence NHC initialized on the NE circ, not the merged circ, and we're just going to have to wait for the models to adjust to have a passable forecast for the track.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Poop....There goes my current "most likely" scenario. I did not factor the center reforming that far to the SW of the NHC center. The kicker is this shift will put Florence closer to 25/75

[Brent]

I think the NHC made a mistake. The track graphic has movement WNW at 13mph but the advisory says West at 13mph....

Why?

Weather Underground usually has something slightly different than the official advisory. It's weird. Sometimes it's the speed it's moving, sometimes the pressure.

[Zardoz]

Off-topic, but what is going on in the eastern Caribbean? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Windsurfer_NYC]

I think the NHC made a mistake. The track graphic has movement WNW at 13mph but the advisory says West at 13mph....

Why?

maybe it is currently moving west, but is forecasted to move WNW over the next 6-9 hours...?

[hiflyer]

AhHah! They were waiting on Stewart to upgrade.......nice discussion.

"CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY
LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE."

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. "

[Regit]

The graphic is 5 AM.

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC made a mistake. The track graphic has movement WNW at 13mph but the advisory says West at 13mph....

Why?

maybe it is currently moving west, but is forecasted to move WNW over the next 6-9 hours...?

nope they say it should stay west =? I think models will shift left later today.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[gatorcane]

there is something wrong - the forecast track has it moving WNW over the next 24 hours but the advisory says it will move West over the next 24 hours....

[sma10]

lets all not forget TD #10......AKA Katrina

"it will turn...it will turn...it will turn"

nope - right into Florida and CAT 5 in the GOM.

Where do you get your information from?

The official forecast always brought Katrina into Florida and then the Gulf. Check your sources.

Remember when TD10 was in the Atlantic? That is what I am talking about. When it was well out in the central Atlantic.....

Yes...it dissipated. That's the only reason TD10 (later TD12) continued westward. Are you thinking Florence will dissipate? Also, the synoptic pattern doesn't look anything like last year during Katrina.

The bottom line is... how is Florence ever going to make it from where she currently is all the way to the East coast without a strong ridge? Until I see the models start to depict a strong steering high underneath Florence PAST 65W, I think the UKMet, GFS, CMC and Euro probably have the right idea with a recurve.

Of course, things can and do change sometimes.....

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is an interesting snippet from the 11AM EST discussion highlighted in bold. As the center (LLC), based on the broad circulation, may have relocated to the south-southwest of the main convective area on this visible loop, which may indicate a more southerly track possibly through the middle term, it is interesting to note this (highlighted)...

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY
MIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA
BUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
FLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
VERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.

In terms of a possible Eastern Seaboard landfall zone, it may well depend on the timing of this mid-level trough approaching the eastern United States that is progged by some of the model guidance to erode the western extent of where the Bermuda-Azores High merges with the Canadian ridging. If the trough pulls out faster or is as weak as it may possibly be, the ridging may possibly build back in and possibly result in a longer west-northwest or westward motion of Florence. This is supported by the possible south-southwest relocation of the LLC as well. The forward motion of Florence and the timing/intensity of the trough will be critical, as well as the strength of the ridging.

[Weatherfreak14]

UH-OH now I think this is going to be a US threat. Possibly by next week by mon. Maybe as a cat 3.. Just a speculation, nothing really to support this.