T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

Stormavoider · #221 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:20 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:why doesnt the quikscat show both circulations instead of one?

To me it shows an elongated circulation possibly encompassing both.

#222 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:22 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:why doesnt the quikscat show both circulations instead of one?

On closer examination here at work, it appears as though there is a broad circulation about 200 miles across, with possibly a few smaller vortices rotating around the inner perimeter. Such a configuration would make organization/intensification very slow.

Stormavoider · #223 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:28 am

A ship way south is reporting west winds.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=14.53N&lon1=46.00W&uom=E&dist=250

Nimbus · #224 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:29 am

Looks better organized this morning than it did yesterday. The NHC forecast seems reasonable. 98l and TD6 are now finally converging from a broader area of surface low pressure. We know the shear is lower NOW because there are big puffy cumulous clouds developing along the VERY EDGE of the trough that are NOT being being sheared off to the northeast.

For the future the ULL over Wisconson might very well keep a Bermuda high in place as per NHC forecast. A major hurricane traveling around the periphory of such a high will keep the S2K server busy.

cheezyWXguy · #225 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:30 am

Well on visible loop, it looks like the sw center became the dominant one....certainly broad, probably elongated, but it is a closed and vigorous LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #226 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:35 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

If that SW center does varify, then that makes TD#6 the largest TD I've ever seen.

Thunder44 · #227 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:37 am

Dvorak T-Numbers have actually gone down. Probably due satellite appearance center being more elongated.

05/1145 UTC 16.9N 47.7W T1.5/2.5 06L

#228 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:38 am

Thunder44 wrote:Dvorak T-Numbers have actually gone down. Probably due satellite appearance center being more elongated.

05/1145 UTC 16.9N 47.7W T1.5/2.5 06L

And the latitud position is more south than what the 5 AM adsvisory had (17.7n).

HurricaneHunter914 · #229 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:40 am

If that is where the center is now. Then how would that affect the track.

otowntiger · #230 Postby **otowntiger** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:42 am

It looks like this storm is very typical of al the ones we've seen this season so far. I saw where someone described it in one word: "impotent". Its great news. This country and our neigbors, Mexico, Cuba and all the Carribean islands sure could use a break. The storm enthusiast in me has mixed feelings about it but even that side of my mind has had more than its share these last few years, so even it is not all that dissappointed in this season to date. The logical, fiscal and sensitive part of my mind is ecstatic that its been a mild season so far.

Having said all that I think there are 2 good things going on with this storm: 1 its not getting its act together intensity-wise. and 2. All the models are beginning to show a good potential for recurvature, in my opinion.

Now I know things can change and certainly have to be vigilant, but I like what I'm seeing from this season so far (at least most of me) :wink:

#231 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:42 am

Any movement of the center to the south will cause a left bend in the forecast track and reduce the influence of any steering features to the north.

Reconsolidation to the north or east results in a right bend and closer interaction with any steering features that want to pull the system that way.

jusforsean · #232 Postby **jusforsean** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:42 am

cant be good for the track i would imagime?? I would think that if it doesnt get pulled out and go out to sea a slower and lower track would give me concern? any thoughts?

Thunder44 · #233 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:44 am

I don't know what this means for 11am advisory. But 12z models have initialized this with 35kt winds and the header has changed to "TS Six"

383
WHXX01 KWBC 051240
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 1200 060906 0000 060906 1200 060907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 46.8W 18.6N 47.9W 19.9N 49.1W 21.2N 50.5W
BAMM 17.2N 46.8W 18.2N 48.3W 18.9N 49.6W 19.7N 50.8W
A98E 17.2N 46.8W 17.9N 48.9W 18.8N 50.8W 20.0N 52.8W
LBAR 17.2N 46.8W 18.4N 48.4W 19.8N 50.1W 21.1N 51.8W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 1200 060908 1200 060909 1200 060910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 52.2W 23.8N 56.8W 25.7N 61.8W 28.3N 66.3W
BAMM 20.2N 52.3W 21.7N 55.7W 23.9N 59.8W 26.8N 64.4W
A98E 20.9N 54.9W 22.7N 60.1W 23.9N 65.2W 24.5N 68.8W
LBAR 22.2N 53.8W 24.1N 58.5W 25.9N 63.3W 27.8N 67.0W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 83KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$

#234 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:47 am

Thunder,you know the drill here at storm2k.We always wait for the official information from NHC and not go ahead and rapidily post a information or change a title of a thread that later may not be the correct one.It's better to play it safe.

#235 Postby **terstorm1012** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:48 am

Thunder44 wrote:
TROPICAL STORM SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 1200 UTC

[/b]

So it's a murderous Cylon?

(Sorry I couldn't help it. A bad attempt at some humor on this Tuesday that feels like a Monday.)

Josephine96 · #236 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:48 am

Slower track may also allow her to strengthen some, right?..

canegrl04 · #237 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:51 am

We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

canegrl04 · #238 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:52 am

Josephine96 wrote:Slower track may also allow her to strengthen some, right?..

Depends.As long as the shear is low

#239 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:54 am

canegrl04 wrote:We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Of course we could. But I don't think it's likely or unlikely. Simply a possibility.

jusforsean · #240 Postby **jusforsean** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:56 am

canegrl04 wrote:We could be looking at Florence heading toward South Florida.Maybe a GOM cane,if the center is SW

Thanks for the thought, :cry:

I hate these long trackers its like being pregnant , just give birth already!!!!!!!!!!! Anticipation is not good for me neither is not knowing, i like to know not wait 10 days, then i have 1/2 the neighborhood calling me "so, is it gonna come?" what am i a weather psychic , they think so! If they only knew how amature I really am!

T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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