T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[HurricaneHunter914]

What hostile enviorment?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg
The SAL is decreasing ahead of TD#6 so that won't be much of a problem. The shear is increasing ahead of TD#6 because of the trough, but the trough is forecasted to move out.

[Bailey1777]

Alot of dry air to the West and it still looks like it's competing for space with a swirl to the SW of it. IMO

[Normandy]

What hostile enviorment?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

The SAL is decreasing ahead of TD#6 so that won't be much of a problem. The shear is increasing ahead of TD#6 because of the trough, but the trough is forecasted to move out.

Run a loop and youll see the hostile environment.
And the trough, well, lets just say until that trough moves out TD #6 is NOT guaranteed survival, because that shear ahead looks downright nasty.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I know the shear will be nasty ahead, but she is CURRENTLY over decreasing shear.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8sht-1.GIF

Also, I just checked the WV loop and the trough appears to be splitting appart.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Normandy]

^ I would NOT trust those maps, because they performed horribly with Chris and they also performed horribly with Ernesto.

Each time they showed shear to lessen and lessen, but it stayed around and ultimately caused both systems to remain fairly weak (which is what I think will happen with this in the near future).

The reason i would not look at those shear maps is because the trough is forecasted to split, with the tail end being guess what....an Upper Level Low. And guess what ULL's do to systems when they get to close? Ask Ernesto.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Actually the ULL is forecasted to help ventilate or strengthen TD#6

From the 5AM TWD:
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER
PERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL
SHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS. GIVEN THIS AND THE
PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL
NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

[Normandy]

^

"THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL
NEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE."

That part is important.

[AZRainman]

TS possible for Wednesday....guess I will fatten up and hibernate til then.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.7N 45.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.4N 47.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 35 KT

[Meso]

MM5 seems to like TD06 MM5 at 120 hours 00z model run

[SouthFLTropics]

First off this morning I'd like to say that this may possibly be the WORST looking TD I have ever seen. It is obvious STILL that the trough is kicking the you know what out of this system. That being said, if this system is strong enough to survive in this environment over the next 2 to 3 days then I think it definitely has a shot at being this seasons first major. Just for the simple fact that it has held on soooo long in such a hostile environment. Given the right conditions this thing could really blow up. I still don't see a potential impact to the CONUS at this time but who knows...Things can and do change. I would feel a whole lot better though if we had a better handle on the center of circulation and had that info in the models.

[wxman57]

First visible satellite imagery suggests a center near 15.5N/45.5W, about 100 miles south of the NHC estimate. I only have a single image, so can't loop it yet. But it may be well-removed from that convection to the north.

[Stormavoider]

First visible satellite imagery suggests a center near 15.5N/45.5W, about 100 miles south of the NHC estimate. I only have a single image, so can't loop it yet. But it may be well-removed from that convection to the north.

West wind at this buoy supports your theory.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[wxman57]

First visible satellite imagery suggests a center near 15.5N/45.5W, about 100 miles south of the NHC estimate. I only have a single image, so can't loop it yet. But it may be well-removed from that convection to the north.

West wind at this buoy supports your theory.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Hard to determine wihtout a significant loop. Got another shot that suggests an elliptical low with one lobe near 15.5/45.5 and another near 17.5N/47.2W. That center down by 15.5 could be remnants of 98L moving into the TD 6 center.

[Thunder44]

Looks like the center is further north closer to the NHC position according to the QS pass just in this morning. Also plenty of 30 to 35kt wind barbs. This could be TS later this morning.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

You can see it better on the NRL page. Click on Scatt:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Stormavoider]

Hard to determine wihtout a significant loop. Got another shot that suggests an elliptical low with one lobe near 15.5/45.5 and another near 17.5N/47.2W. That center down by 15.5 could be remnants of 98L moving into the TD 6 center.

What would be the implications of these two combining? Would it make a more intense system or just create difficulties for organization?

[cpdaman]

after ernesto i have lost confidence in the models ability to handle ULL's

do any promets agree that this split in the trough is likely to cause a ULL that will actually ventalate this system and help it or is this more or less a crap shoot still 48 hours out and could actually just hinder the system longer

[Blown Away]

Has everybody pretty much concluded this will be a fish storm?

[HurricaneHunter914]

No.

[cinlfla]

Looking at visable this morning it looks to me that the center is possibly further SW. I don't see anything where the NHC has there forecast points.

[cheezyWXguy]

why doesnt the quikscat show both circulations instead of one?