T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[boca]

Sorry I clicked the wrong one.

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry I clicked the wrong one.

We'll forgive you this time..

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Has anyone else seen the rest of that run? It's weird cause days 4-7 some of the layers don't match up.

[SouthFloridawx]

UKMET 144 Hours 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

CMC 144 Hours 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS 144 Hours 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS 144 Hours 00Z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... lantic.gif

[Zardoz]

Well, this looks about as fishy as you can get:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

[Aquawind]

Nice spread in 144 hours. With the looks of the elongated circulation, multiple centers and questions in timing the models are prematureemodulation.

[SouthFloridawx]

040
WHXX04 KWBC 050523
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.8 44.4 300./ 9.9
6 17.1 45.1 299./ 7.5
12 17.4 46.0 285./ 8.2
18 17.9 46.7 304./ 8.4
24 18.4 47.6 301./10.7
30 18.9 48.3 304./ 7.9
36 19.8 49.1 317./11.3
42 19.9 50.0 282./ 8.4
48 20.3 51.3 287./13.1
54 20.6 52.3 283./ 9.5
60 21.0 53.3 292./10.7
66 21.5 54.8 289./14.8
72 21.6 56.1 273./11.6
78 21.9 57.3 285./12.1
84 22.2 58.7 284./13.2
90 22.5 60.1 282./13.6
96 22.6 61.3 272./11.1
102 22.7 62.4 277./10.1
108 23.1 63.4 292./ 9.9
114 23.4 64.3 285./ 9.0
120 23.7 64.9 302./ 5.7
126 24.1 65.6 299./ 8.0

[Pebbles]

Well untill the models have a more precise lock on the location of the center you can kinda take those end 144 hours with a grain of salt Just hanging back till things are a little more solid before taking any notice of long term. (and usually even when they are solid on initializing I never take 144 hours to heart as things can always change.)

[wxmann_91]

UKMET 144 Hours 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

CMC 144 Hours 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS 144 Hours 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS 144 Hours 00Z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... lantic.gif

OK, I was going to start a new thread and give a big lecture about it, I'll just sum it up in this post.

THE SLOWER TD6/FLORENCE MOVES, THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL HIT LAND.

The UKMET and GFS has this slower, and notice how the ridge builds back in. This orientation is perfect for a major hit somewhere along the East Coast. However, the CMC speeds this up, and fishing Florence goes.

Again, key here is to look at the synoptics, not at the storm itself.

First, though, the storms needs to organize and survive, of course.

EDIT: Took a look at the GFS again and the ridge weakens afterward. Sorry about that.

[Starburst]

Well, this looks about as fishy as you can get:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

Do not bet the farm on it The models at this point are useless. Right now the models are tracking multiple centers, reformation of the centers, and also circulations within close proximity to Td 6. There are some very close systems to this area and as of right now there is no way to lock down just one center unless you are seeing something that all of us here are not seeing. In a few days we will all know more.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I would be shocked if this hit the U.S. Just don't think it will happen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[Aquawind]

LOL.. nice one Matt!

Weather is whacked sometimes..

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 050648
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 0600 060905 1800 060906 0600 060906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 45.5W 18.7N 46.8W 19.7N 47.9W 20.7N 49.3W
BAMM 17.5N 45.5W 18.3N 47.0W 18.8N 48.3W 19.2N 49.4W
A98E 17.5N 45.5W 18.6N 48.0W 19.5N 50.0W 20.3N 52.1W
LBAR 17.5N 45.5W 18.7N 47.1W 20.1N 48.7W 21.5N 50.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 0600 060908 0600 060909 0600 060910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 50.8W 23.1N 55.2W 24.8N 60.1W 26.6N 64.4W
BAMM 19.5N 50.7W 20.3N 53.7W 21.9N 57.1W 23.9N 60.2W
A98E 20.3N 54.3W 21.5N 59.2W 21.8N 64.3W 20.8N 68.2W
LBAR 22.9N 52.2W 25.1N 56.8W 27.1N 61.8W 29.1N 65.3W
SHIP 49KTS 61KTS 73KTS 81KTS
DSHP 49KTS 61KTS 73KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 45.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 43.3W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 41.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[deltadog03]

Thats where I estimate the LLC...IF you go and loop the SHORTWAVE IR loop off of the nhc site you can clearly see the low level clouds rotating around that area.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

WOW! TS Florence by the 5 AM Advisory?

[AZRainman]

Looks like slop to me....I doubt it will be a TS at 5.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

How about an open wave at 5

[Normandy]

Its still holding its own, has a nice burst of convection near the center, and as long as it continues these bursts itll stay together.


BUT,
this has a horrible future ahead of it IMO. Look at the WV loop and see just how hostile the environment is around it.