T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

Derek Ortt · #81 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:15 pm

confirms the SSM/I S pass

#82 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:16 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:confirms the SSM/I S pass

Derek,what that pass confirms?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #83 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:21 pm

The water vapor shows the trough has flaten out at near 20 north...With a upper high building over the system=why there shear has decreased over the area of the system. On the shear maps the shear has decreased to the northeast at 20 knots. 15 to 18 knots of shear over our system right now.

Also a ULL is at 30 north/55 west moving south-southeastward. Which could dig the trough southward...Which would allow for the high over the system to strengthen a little.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Derek Ortt · #84 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:29 pm

QS confirms SSM/I S

Trugunzn · #85 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:30 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:QS confirms SSM/I S

what does that mean?

Derek Ortt · #86 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:31 pm

there is a circ

Trugunzn · #87 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:32 pm

Latest GFDL OUT:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation[/img]

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:32 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/2345 UTC 17.7N 43.8W T2.5/2.5 06L
04/1745 UTC 16.8N 43.1W T2.5/2.5 06L
04/1145 UTC 16.2N 42.2W T2.5/2.5 06L
04/0600 UTC 15.5N 40.3W T2.5/2.5 06L
03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L

5th consecutive SSD T number of 2.5/2.5 given to TD 6.But so far those numbers haved not caused NHC to classify to Tropical Storm Florence.

Weatherfreak14 · #89 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:33 pm

GFDL looks lot like an andrew or maybe a flyod.

jaxfladude · #90 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:38 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:GFDL looks lot like an Andrew or maybe a Floyd.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.....Lose Lips Bring Hurricanes.......now back to seriousness 8-)

#91 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:39 pm

AJC3 wrote:Here's the latest QS pass. Casts doubt on whether the system could have actually opened up into a wave in 3 short hours.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

Well, that's certainly some evidence that we have an LLC there. Winds in the 25-30 kt range. NHC will keep it a depression tonight. I didn't mean to imply that it would be downgraded by the NHC tonight, just that there was a chance it could lose its LLC by morning and be downgraded then. With the QS evidence, it should be kept as a depression. I think it has about a 50-60% shot at surviving the shear and recovering.

Also note the nice circulation associated with the system near 30W.

ROCK · #92 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:40 pm

hard to tell but I think I am seeing some separation with x98 and 6. 98's low is off to the SW whereas 6 is to the NE. Two separate areas of convection forming now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

HurricaneMaster_PR · #93 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:49 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX (AL062006) ON 20060905 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060905 0000 060905 1200 060906 0000 060906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 44.3W 18.3N 45.9W 19.4N 47.4W 20.3N 48.9W
BAMM 17.0N 44.3W 18.1N 46.1W 18.9N 47.6W 19.5N 49.1W
A98E 17.0N 44.3W 18.0N 46.1W 19.2N 47.7W 20.3N 49.2W
LBAR 17.0N 44.3W 18.5N 45.8W 19.9N 47.4W 21.3N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060907 0000 060908 0000 060909 0000 060910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 50.7W 22.3N 54.9W 23.6N 60.0W 25.2N 65.0W
BAMM 19.9N 50.6W 20.7N 54.1W 22.1N 58.3W 24.0N 62.8W
A98E 21.1N 51.3W 23.4N 56.5W 25.1N 62.5W 26.7N 67.4W
LBAR 22.7N 51.0W 25.0N 56.0W 26.7N 61.6W 29.0N 66.2W
SHIP 51KTS 64KTS 77KTS 87KTS
DSHP 51KTS 64KTS 77KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 42.4W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 40.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#94 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:52 pm

PRESSURE UP 2 MB

#95 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:53 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:there is a circ

By the way, Derek, you notice that the center was already passing 45W as of 21Z? Not only is it moving much faster than forecast, it appears to be moving more westerly. I think it may take another 24-36 hours to get better organized. If it survives that long, there may not be much to prevent intensification.

HurricaneHunter914 · #96 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:53 pm

Pressure has risen a bit. I think it is a bad thing the TD#6 is weaker, because if she stays weak then she might take a more westerly track.

#97 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:53 pm

HURAKAN wrote:PRESSURE UP 2 MB

Remember that's just an educated guess. There's no way to measure the pressure there without direct surface obs. It's more an indication that the NHC thinks it's weaker now.

gilbert88 · #98 Postby **gilbert88** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:55 pm

What are the chances of a Puerto Rico landfall now?

Normandy · #99 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:there is a circ

By the way, Derek, you notice that the center was already passing 45W as of 21Z? Not only is it moving much faster than forecast, it appears to be moving more westerly. I think it may take another 24-36 hours to get better organized. If it survives that long, there may not be much to prevent intensification.

I was seeing the same thing, good eye.
Also, that convection that is firing seems to have little to do with the LLC (because it is really far away).

Trugunzn · #100 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 7:59 pm

Anybody think this relocated center furthur north towards the depp convection?

T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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