T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[miamicanes177]

Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it.

Nope. This is officially TD 6 according to the NHC at 5pm.

[Epsilon_Fan]

the TD looks like a mess now... there are multiple circulations and none of them is well defined. The convection is firing but it is sheared. The northern circulation is going north and the western one west. I don't know what to make of this mess!

[Trugunzn]

First big Convection blow of today continues to grow:

[CrazyC83]

First big Convection blow of today continues to grow:

TS at 11?

[fci]

Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it.

Nope. This is officially TD 6 according to the NHC at 5pm.

I think wxman57 is saying that NOW, it is probably an open wave and that it may be downgraded soon.

No denying that at 5 PM they still had it as a TD but the post was a couple of hours later.

[SouthFloridawx]

Good news, folks. I think there's a high probability that TD 6 is now an open wave or very close to it.

Nope. This is officially TD 6 according to the NHC at 5pm.

I think wxman57 is saying that NOW, it is probably an open wave and that it may be downgraded soon.

No denying that at 5 PM they still had it as a TD but the post was a couple of hours later.

It appears to me at this current time, that I would agree somewhat with wxman57. It is showing the classic signs of being a wave but, Lets see what the NHC says at 11PM.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/2100 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 16.9N 43.8W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AND CURRENTLY IT
LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS
TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX AS A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DEPARTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CENTER IS
BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION.
THE MOST ACTIVE BAND IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 44W-48W. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS TROUGH SATURDAY.

[Derek Ortt]

Seems as if there is a center SW of the latest convective burst... probably enough to keep this alive until visible imagery is available. This is based upon the latest SSM/i S pass from NRL

I would post the link, but since html is not enabled, I do not know how to shorten the link

NRL Link

[marcane_1973]

If the shear does not stop soon and the trough to the north does not fizzle out as well I am starting to think the area in the Bahamas could end up being more interesting than TD 6. On the water vapor image you can clearly see the trough is not weakening by no means. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg This goes to show you models are useless and i do not care to look at them. They cannot predict what the atmosphere will do because it has a mind of its own and will do what it wants to do.

[Noah]

Im so very confused with all these systems.

Which one should florida be watching? I guess that narrows it down for me.

[Derek Ortt]

the models are not useless. To say that is an uninformed statement

The analysis though is useless until there is better data assimilation over the open ocean

[SouthFloridawx]

Seems as if there is a center SW of the latest convective burst... probably enough to keep this alive until visible imagery is available. This is based upon the latest SSM/i S pass from NRL

I would post the link, but since html is not enabled, I do not know how to shorten the link

NRL Link

Derek you can go to http://www.tinyurl.com it will shorten the link for you.

[cycloneye]

Seems as if there is a center SW of the latest convective burst... probably enough to keep this alive until visible imagery is available. This is based upon the latest SSM/i S pass from NRL

I would post the link, but since html is not enabled, I do not know how to shorten the link

NRL Link

Derek I fixed that very long link,making a hypertext much shorter link.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a nice area of convection...I just got home so need to look at some satellite. But looking much better convection wise. WAHOO!

[Trugunzn]

Isnt new GFDL around soon?

[SouthFloridawx]

Isnt new GFDL around soon?

622
WHXX04 KWBC 042330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 43.5 305./ 9.9
6 16.9 44.4 293./10.0
12 17.2 45.6 284./11.4
18 17.5 46.9 285./13.1
24 18.0 47.8 296./ 9.4
30 18.5 48.6 300./ 9.6
36 19.2 49.2 322./ 8.8
42 19.8 49.8 315./ 8.8
48 20.4 50.8 302./11.1
54 21.0 52.0 296./12.0
60 21.6 53.4 293./14.7
66 22.2 55.0 290./15.9
72 22.6 56.9 282./17.9
78 22.8 58.3 278./13.8
84 23.0 60.2 278./17.4
90 23.2 61.8 277./14.9
96 23.3 63.3 273./13.8
102 23.3 64.7 271./12.1
108 23.5 65.8 278./10.8
114 23.8 66.8 285./ 9.8
120 24.2 67.7 299./ 8.5
126 24.7 68.5 301./ 8.8

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok the LLC still looks to be there. A buoy on the southern side is now showing west wind around 12-13 north. With clouds flowing at the lower levels around that. The convection is firing over the northeast side. But convection is starting to fire down closer to the LLC. Shear maps shown that the shear could be weaking some. So we will have to see. But I see a chance of this getting a little better orgnized after 12 hours, if things hold up!

[AJC3]

Here's the latest QS pass. Casts doubt on whether the system could have actually opened up into a wave in 3 short hours.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ajc3 I agre this is not a open wave...Theres a buoy on the southern side of this system showing westly winds. So there is no way this is open.

[cycloneye]

Isnt new GFDL around soon?

622
WHXX04 KWBC 042330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 43.5 305./ 9.9
6 16.9 44.4 293./10.0
12 17.2 45.6 284./11.4
18 17.5 46.9 285./13.1
24 18.0 47.8 296./ 9.4
30 18.5 48.6 300./ 9.6
36 19.2 49.2 322./ 8.8
42 19.8 49.8 315./ 8.8
48 20.4 50.8 302./11.1
54 21.0 52.0 296./12.0
60 21.6 53.4 293./14.7
66 22.2 55.0 290./15.9
72 22.6 56.9 282./17.9
78 22.8 58.3 278./13.8
84 23.0 60.2 278./17.4
90 23.2 61.8 277./14.9
96 23.3 63.3 273./13.8
102 23.3 64.7 271./12.1
108 23.5 65.8 278./10.8
114 23.8 66.8 285./ 9.8
120 24.2 67.7 299./ 8.5
126 24.7 68.5 301./ 8.8

I posted that run 2 pages back.

[Trugunzn]

Isnt new GFDL around soon?

622
WHXX04 KWBC 042330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 43.5 305./ 9.9
6 16.9 44.4 293./10.0
12 17.2 45.6 284./11.4
18 17.5 46.9 285./13.1
24 18.0 47.8 296./ 9.4
30 18.5 48.6 300./ 9.6
36 19.2 49.2 322./ 8.8
42 19.8 49.8 315./ 8.8
48 20.4 50.8 302./11.1
54 21.0 52.0 296./12.0
60 21.6 53.4 293./14.7
66 22.2 55.0 290./15.9
72 22.6 56.9 282./17.9
78 22.8 58.3 278./13.8
84 23.0 60.2 278./17.4
90 23.2 61.8 277./14.9
96 23.3 63.3 273./13.8
102 23.3 64.7 271./12.1
108 23.5 65.8 278./10.8
114 23.8 66.8 285./ 9.8
120 24.2 67.7 299./ 8.5
126 24.7 68.5 301./ 8.8

looks like GFDL its the same as the last run but furthu west