T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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x-y-no
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#21 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:15 pm

18Z GFS tracking a little faster, a little more to the left so far (out to 108 hours)

Image
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#22 Postby M_0331 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:17 pm

NAVY

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropic ... d0418z.gif
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#23 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:17 pm

thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel possible future Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#24 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:19 pm

What exactly is the AEMN model? Is it part of the GFS ensemble?

<RICKY>
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#25 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:20 pm

If they keep shifting left PR and the rest of GA will need to take notice....
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#26 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:22 pm



looks like we are seeing some models bending to it to the W and even WSW - indicating they are picking up on a very strong subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic...

lets hope that trend does not continue.
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#27 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).


As of now, I don't see the prospect of a massive ridge like with Andrew, so I'm pretty skeptical of a Florida threat. I'm thinking the trend could be towards an east coast storm, though (although recurvature to sea still has to be the highest probability).
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#28 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:24 pm

x-y-no wrote:
gatorcane wrote:thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).


As of now, I don't see the prospect of a massive ridge like with Andrew, so I'm pretty skeptical of a Florida threat. I'm thinking the trend could be towards an east coast storm, though (although recurvature to sea still has to be the highest probability).


I hope you are right but with Andrew nobody saw the ridge either....so it would be a similar situation.

Some of the models are bending WSW at the end of the forecast track and that has me a bit nervous - although we are SO far out I am just monitoring the situation.
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#29 Postby Toadstool » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:I hope you are right but with Andrew nobody saw the ridge either....so it would be a similar situation.

Some of the models are bending WSW at the end of the forecast track and that has me a bit nervous - although we are SO far out I am just monitoring the situation.


I agree it is definitely something to keep an eye on, and at least Ernesto gave people a good refresher in preparedness, so hopefully everyone will be set for wherever Flo goes and/or whatever storms come the rest of the year.
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#30 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:32 pm

18Z GFS at 144 hours:

Image

still faster and left of the 0Z/6Z/12Z tracks. Notably weaker than the 0Z run though.
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#31 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:35 pm

Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?
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#32 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:37 pm

x-y-no wrote:18Z GFS at 144 hours:

Image

still faster and left of the 0Z/6Z/12Z tracks. Notably weaker than the 0Z run though.


looks like it still developes the wave behind it.
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#33 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:39 pm

Image
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#34 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I think it's too hard to tell with a disorganized system and no visible image. IR2 helps, but it isn't an adequate substitute.

Off to do some snack shopping before the game ... :D
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#35 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:45 pm

convection finally firing up?

Image
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#36 Postby storms in NC » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm

Some of the models are bending WSW at the end of the forecast track and that has me a bit nervous - although we are SO far out I am just monitoring the situation.

You a little nervous. Try having about a foot + around your house now and then have TD#6 on your foot steps.
If it was just wind no troubles it is the rain
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#37 Postby theworld » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm

Looking like an L train out there. yikes.

Trugunzn wrote:Image
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#38 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
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#39 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:48 pm

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


wouldn't be surprised if x98's low takes over and TD 6 moves about 100 miles SW. If that happened all model tracks can be thrown out at this point.
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#40 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:48 pm

Center can be anywhere from 14.5 45.5 NE to the 5 PM position.
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