T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#21 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:15 pm

18Z GFS tracking a little faster, a little more to the left so far (out to 108 hours)

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
M_0331
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:05 pm
Location: SE COAST, SC

#22 Postby M_0331 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:17 pm

NAVY

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropic ... d0418z.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#23 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:17 pm

thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel possible future Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#24 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:19 pm

What exactly is the AEMN model? Is it part of the GFS ensemble?

<RICKY>
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#25 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:20 pm

If they keep shifting left PR and the rest of GA will need to take notice....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#26 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:22 pm



looks like we are seeing some models bending to it to the W and even WSW - indicating they are picking up on a very strong subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic...

lets hope that trend does not continue.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#27 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).


As of now, I don't see the prospect of a massive ridge like with Andrew, so I'm pretty skeptical of a Florida threat. I'm thinking the trend could be towards an east coast storm, though (although recurvature to sea still has to be the highest probability).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#28 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:24 pm

x-y-no wrote:
gatorcane wrote:thanks x-y-no for the update, somehow I feel Florence has southeast coast of Florida written all over it - although there is no meterological reasoning for my feelings. Now the GFS is taking it farther to the left and faster (meteorologically that is because it thinks the ridge will be stronger than originally anticipated).


As of now, I don't see the prospect of a massive ridge like with Andrew, so I'm pretty skeptical of a Florida threat. I'm thinking the trend could be towards an east coast storm, though (although recurvature to sea still has to be the highest probability).


I hope you are right but with Andrew nobody saw the ridge either....so it would be a similar situation.

Some of the models are bending WSW at the end of the forecast track and that has me a bit nervous - although we are SO far out I am just monitoring the situation.
0 likes   
Top
Toadstool
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:46 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#29 Postby Toadstool » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:I hope you are right but with Andrew nobody saw the ridge either....so it would be a similar situation.

Some of the models are bending WSW at the end of the forecast track and that has me a bit nervous - although we are SO far out I am just monitoring the situation.


I agree it is definitely something to keep an eye on, and at least Ernesto gave people a good refresher in preparedness, so hopefully everyone will be set for wherever Flo goes and/or whatever storms come the rest of the year.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#30 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:32 pm

18Z GFS at 144 hours:

Image

still faster and left of the 0Z/6Z/12Z tracks. Notably weaker than the 0Z run though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#31 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:35 pm

Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#32 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:37 pm

x-y-no wrote:18Z GFS at 144 hours:

Image

still faster and left of the 0Z/6Z/12Z tracks. Notably weaker than the 0Z run though.


looks like it still developes the wave behind it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#33 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:39 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#34 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I think it's too hard to tell with a disorganized system and no visible image. IR2 helps, but it isn't an adequate substitute.

Off to do some snack shopping before the game ... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#35 Postby Trugunzn » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:45 pm

convection finally firing up?

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#36 Postby storms in NC » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm

Some of the models are bending WSW at the end of the forecast track and that has me a bit nervous - although we are SO far out I am just monitoring the situation.

You a little nervous. Try having about a foot + around your house now and then have TD#6 on your foot steps.
If it was just wind no troubles it is the rain
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
theworld
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:33 pm
Location: DelMarVa

#37 Postby theworld » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm

Looking like an L train out there. yikes.

Trugunzn wrote:Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#38 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#39 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:48 pm

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looking at the latest data and sat pics, I think we could see another center reforming about 100 miles SW of the current NHC center. Seems like there is evidence of some rotation and the thunderstorms are deeping there. Thoughts?


I see x98's low off to the SW but I can't make out TD6's low that was there earlier today to the NE.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls


wouldn't be surprised if x98's low takes over and TD 6 moves about 100 miles SW. If that happened all model tracks can be thrown out at this point.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#40 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 04, 2006 5:48 pm

Center can be anywhere from 14.5 45.5 NE to the 5 PM position.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 39 guests