T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

#441 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:33 pm

Not sure if this has been posted, so here goes:

...CENTRAL/EAST...

ACROSS THE NORTH EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NRN THIRD/HALF OF THE REGION. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LGT TO MDT RNFL. NRN PLAINS TEMPS
SHOULD REBOUND LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONT. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
OVER THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BY THU/FRI. ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO
THE MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS/WRN OH VLY BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES FARTHER N. FURTHER
ENERGY/MOISTURE MAY STREAM NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. ERN GULF/SE COASTS SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RNFL
THRU THE PERIOD... WITH A WEAKENING STNRY FRONT PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO FRI. AWAY FROM LOCATIONS THAT SEE DAYTIME
RNFL... TEMPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CNTRL/ERN STATES SHOULD
BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

...TROPICS...

CONSULT TPC DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FOR LATEST INFO REGARDING
T.D. SIX IN THE ATLANTIC. BASED ON 15Z ADVISORY... THIS SYSTEM IS
FCST TO REACH HURCN STRENGTH BY DAYS 4-5 FRI-SAT. WITH GUIDANCE
DEPICTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG/E OF THE EAST COAST BY DAYS 6-7...
COORDINATED TPC/HPC TRACK DEPICTS AN INCREASED NWD COMPONENT AT
THAT TIME... KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF 70W.

RAUSCH/CISCO

Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Thunder44 · #442 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:35 pm

The 18z Models initialized at a TD status. So I believe they have already looked at the satellite estimates this afternoon and I don't think TPC will upgrade at 5pm, unless there is a signficant change in organization by then.

miamicanes177 · #443 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:41 pm

12Z GFDL 938mb

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #444 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:41 pm

No it would destroy that LLC as 06L has a stronger LLC. In also the upper levels can hardly support a cat1 right now...In we are growing closer to the 30 year peak of this season. So it has not much more faverable it can become. It would be luck for this system to find a faverable area to go...This year.

HurricaneHunter914 · #445 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:46 pm

I thought shear was favorable.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #446 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:49 pm

Looks to becoming more faverable with the trough lifting...With the high building to its north. But the dry air will allow only slow development.

Josephine96 · #447 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:15 pm

It'll be interesting to see how much he intensifies as he approaches the islands the next few days..

Derek Ortt · #448 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:20 pm

the trough is not lifting out quickly, if at all. Not sure where the trough is lifting out idea is coming from when it is not

it may be 2-3 days before we see really favorable conditions to allow for this to take off. If this survives the next 48-72 hours, we may very well see our first cane of the season (I am not sure Ernesto was a cane as flight level winds never supported cane status... BT may revise downward)

jusforsean · #449 Postby **jusforsean** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:looks like the folks along the east coast of Florida including South Florida need to monitor this situation - albeit without getting to anxious yet.

I dont know whats worse the aniticipation of a storm thats 7 days out or my addiction to storm2k heheh

#450 Postby **terstorm1012** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:24 pm

This is definately one to watch....it's going to get mighty anxious around here. Take care of yourself gang, if it gets too much, go do something else like have fun or check your hurricane supplies. This always helps me out.

Derek Ortt · #451 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:29 pm

we really NEED TO STOP EXTRAPOLATING FORECAST TRACKS

GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.

I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time

Josephine96 · #452 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:29 pm

2nd hurricane. Ernesto was a hurricane briefly in the Caribbean..

#453 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:we really NEED TO STOP EXTRAPOLATING FORECAST TRACKS

GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.

I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time

Derek, I like the sound of that...

I was curious if it was heading west still in that shot of GFDL in the other thread...

Derek Ortt · #454 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:31 pm

Ernesto may not officially be a cane on BT, as thats what the flight level data indicates. FL data only justifies a peak windspeed of 62KT, below hurricane status

Josephine96 · #455 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:32 pm

Calm down everybody please. If we all think the storm is going a certain way.. Let us think that way..

BESIDES.. IT'S WAY TOO EARLY

.. Maybe it'll come to Fla, maybe it'll go into the GOM.. Maybe it'll hit SC/NC.. maybe it won't go anywhere..

Damar91 · #456 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:33 pm

How about we all stop focusing on something that is at least 8-9 days away. Derek is right, stop focusing on things that currently don't exist. Sometimes I wish sll this technology didn't exist. Then we would only know about something a few days out.

Grease Monkey · #457 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:33 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:we really NEED TO STOP EXTRAPOLATING FORECAST TRACKS

GFDL does not show any type of threat to Florida. It has the system 1,000miles east of the state, moving at a heading of 290-300 at T+126. Even extrapolating the track sends the storm well north of Florida.

I am not saying this cannot hit Florida, but chances currently do not favor that scenario; thus, I am not the least bit concerned here in South Miami at this time

I'm also getting tired of people telling me to be concerned with a storm way ahead of time. I'll be concerned with a storm when I feel like it. It's a free country. :lol:

marcane_1973 · #458 Postby **marcane_1973** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:35 pm

The trough to the North is really giving problems for TD 6 and the wave behind it. Both systems looked a lot better less than 24 hrs ago. Here it is September 5th starting peak time and every wave that comes off the coast of Africa seems to have shear or dry air to inhibit strengthening. 2006 sure seems to be one of the strangest and unpredictable seasons in a while.

jhamps10 · #459 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:35 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Calm down everybody please. If we all think the storm is going a certain way.. Let us think that way..

BESIDES.. IT'S WAY TOO EARLY .. Maybe it'll come to Fla, maybe it'll go into the GOM.. Maybe it'll hit SC/NC.. maybe it won't go anywhere..

I agree with you 125%. it is way,way,way,way too early to pin-point a landfall point, basically what I am recommending to everyone is to watch, and wait and just have it in the back of your mind what you would do, do you have your supplies in order, what you need to do if you did not make the early preps ahead of time, is to go out and buy your pre-season supplies if it makes you feel better. but please do not get to concerned at this time.

Josephine96 · #460 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:39 pm

WAY too early to get concerned.. If its still booking towards the US next Monday.. [eerie that next Monday is 9/11} then it'll be time to start getting a little more concerned..

Lets just watch Flo Jo grow right now and marvel on how strong or weak she gets..

T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

Who is online