T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[LarryWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Here are the first four official NHC positions for TD#6:

1 14.60 -40.40 09/03/21Z
2 14.80 -40.40 09/04/03Z
3 15.60 -41.10 09/04/09Z
4 16.30 -42.70 09/04/15Z

Keep this in mind: there is not a single storm on record since 1851 that moved at 315 degrees or higher (i.e., true NW included) between any two official data points east of 48 W (even for just a very short time) and later hit the U.S. Basically, climo is saying to me that over recorded history there basically has never been enough high pressure (strong enough and/or long enough) to the north to bring any storm far enough west to hit the U.S. when there was weak enough pressure to the north prior to that that allowed any NW movement east of 48W.

Based strictly on the average movement between positions one and three, there was, indeed, 12 hours of motion that averaged 315+ degrees (a good bit further north than the initial NHC track had shown). Therefore, based strictly on climo, TD #6 has no better than a very low chance of making it far enough west to actually landfall (excluding near misses) anywhere on the U.S. east coast, despite the fact that it appears likely that it will turn back WNW or even perhaps W for a number of days (assuming it survives). Furthermore, keeping in mind my research into years with an Aug SOI of <-10, my opinion as of now is that the FL east coast is virtually assured of no landfall based on climo.

Since 1851, for storms that did had any 315+ degree movement east of 48 W, the furthest west/closest to the U.S. east coast any one got was Gladys of 1975 (73W/~300 miles from NC )(see 1st link). The second closest was Irene of 2005 (70.2W/~400 miles from NC)(see 2nd link). Due to the anticipated upcoming WNW to W motion and due to some similarities in tracks, perhaps a weighted average of these two tracks (with more weight on Gladys of 1975) would be a good analog to consider for TD #6??

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[perk]

Andrew92, what you need to understand is that some people want a major hurricane to hit land.

I know, and I admit I have been just as excited about a hurricane hitting land in the past. But what these people need to understand is that these storms kill and cause massive amounts of damage, and that it CAN happen to them, especially if they live on the coast.

Am I making myself clear? I know it can be exciting, but these storms are NOT to be taken lightly.

-Andrew92

What some of these people need to experience is what i experienced with Rita last year. I was fine for a while, because preparations kept me very busy, but after things settled down, and i had time to think about what could possibly be happening in a day or so i was scared.

[Weatherfreak000]

I honestly can't imagine a season like this in my dreams....I don't think a single pro met can justify the patterns going on right now, and why storms are doing what they are doing.

TD 6 is following the SAME pattern, i'm beginning to see with every other storm this year. Instead of flying out of the floodgates these storms are barely puttering across the finish line.

And i'm not taking this with 2005 standards, how about...any year period. Even El Nino years are putting 2006 to shame.


I know people will be ready to argue, but i'm a week away from putting the dud marking on this season for sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.0 42.6 305./ 9.9
6 16.1 43.2 279./ 6.6
12 16.8 44.5 297./14.3
18 17.1 45.5 283./ 9.8
24 17.4 46.3 290./ 8.2
30 17.6 47.2 285./ 7.9
36 18.2 47.6 323./ 8.0
42 18.7 48.3 307./ 7.9
48 19.9 48.7 340./12.5
54 20.7 50.1 300./14.9
60 21.4 51.6 294./16.0
66 21.9 53.3 286./15.9
72 22.2 54.9 281./15.1
78 22.6 56.5 284./15.5
84 22.9 57.9 282./13.7
90 23.0 59.3 276./13.0
96 23.4 61.0 283./15.1
102 23.3 62.1 269./10.9
108 23.6 63.0 289./ 8.7
114 23.8 64.1 277./10.1
120 24.0 65.1 282./ 9.1
126 24.4 65.7 303./ 7.3

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

24.8N 60.0W 06Z 126 Hours
24.4N 65.7W 12Z 126 Hours

Farther west on the newest run. I wonder why when GFS develops a weakness.

205 Disco
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/1200 UTC IS CENTERED
NEAR 16.3N 42.7W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. SIX IS SLOWLY
ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED TO THE N AND
E OF THE CENTER. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN THESE
BANDS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NW OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE
SWLY SHEAR LIKELY ONLY ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW INTO THIS
WEAKNESS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[BatzVI]

I sure don't like the turn that the BAMS is showing....though it's only taken with a grain of salt

[Trugunzn]

GFDL shifted back west, wonder what intensity it will show now.

[fci]

Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate..............

Well, I will reluctantly resist the temptation to flame you big time here.

Suffice it to say I stongly disagree with your post and hope that there aren't any hurricanes this season within 12 hours of US landfall and that you remain bored.

[NFLDART]

Well we all know how accurate our models have been thus far

[gatorcane]

Florence headed in the general direction of Florida. Here we go again. I know its early and anything could happen but just something else to watch

[HurricaneHunter914]

Florence=Frances? I hope not!

[Noah]

WHY is this storm being called Florence? It has not been named.

[Trugunzn]

later today they will

[cheezyWXguy]

Florence=Frances? I hope not!

That reminds me...why did frances weaken before landfall?

[WmE]

Really? I don't think so. I think they'll name it tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

later today they will

it won't be named later today...I agree with the METS that said tomorrow maybe but not today.

[Grease Monkey]

Florence=Frances? I hope not!

That reminds me...why did frances weaken before landfall?

I think because he began to hit a lot of dry air.

[HURAKAN]

04/1745 UTC 16.8N 43.1W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

Frances enocuntered 25KT of westerly shear in the Bahamas. That will rapidly weaken any major hurricane