T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

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ConvergenceZone
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#361 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:57 am

Stormavoider wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
kenl01 wrote:Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate.............. :wink:



I have to agree with you there. For a tropical weather hobbyist, this is probably the most boring season I've had in the last several years, and no, this has nothing to do with the fact that they haven't affected land. The FEW storms that have formed have been the most pathetic systems I"ve seen and that's only if they develop...I'm still not sold on the idea of this depresson developing into a cane. It looks worse than it did yesterday, and the wave behind it looks worse as well. Will it ever end??? Or is this it???


May I suggest the Winter Weather forum.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=22


Yea, that's true, there might be some hurricanes forming this Winter...
:roll:
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#362 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 11:58 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Not looking good right now.


Actually I thought TD#6 looked better than earlier.
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#363 Postby baitism » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:00 pm

Yeah i agree. The convection sure isnt impressive, but the storm is slowly orgainizing itself.
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#364 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:00 pm

Geez, guys. Do you want this storm to hit land? It seems like most of the rookies here think a season is boring because it doesn't have a Cat-5 hitting land.
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#365 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:08 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
kenl01 wrote:Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate.............. :wink:



I have to agree with you there. For a tropical weather hobbyist, this is probably the most boring season I've had in the last several years, and no, this has nothing to do with the fact that they haven't affected land. The FEW storms that have formed have been the most pathetic systems I"ve seen and that's only if they develop...I'm still not sold on the idea of this depresson developing into a cane. It looks worse than it did yesterday, and the wave behind it looks worse as well. Will it ever end??? Or is this it???


First: Have you been watching any of the Pacific storms as all, such John or Ioke? Ioke has been VERY impressive over the last couple weeks, and despite weakening, is still going strong.

Second: I think 2000, 2001, and 2002 were more boring than this season so far up to this point. Sure, there was Debby in 2000 before this time, but she fizzled. Everything else was either weak or out to sea (or both). There had been NO hurricanes for ANY amount of time by this time in either 2001 and 2002; of course, 2001 also had already had Allison. Granted, Barry and Chantal were not exactly wimps either, but still, the season was struggling to get going. And 2002 was even less spectacular, which is understandable as that year was an El Nino. At least in 2001, the storms lasted roughly a week (even Allison if you count her remnants). Storms in 2002 were lasting 2-3 days on average by this time, except for Dolly which wasn't strong herself. The storms of 2002 up to this point were MUCH less impressive, in my opinion, than the storms of 2006 so far, save maybe Debby. At least Ernesto, albeit VERY BRIEFLY, became a hurricane at one time.

Third: I think we could use a "boring" Atlantic hurricane season this year, don't you? Florida and the Gulf Coast have had ENOUGH over the last couple years. The last thing we need is another catastrophic hurricane causing massive amounts of devastation. I'm frankly not minding the "boredom" at all.

That said, I would be watching TD #6 very closely. It is too early to say if it'll hit the U.S., but I think it will become a tropical storm soon, possibly tonight. I won't say for sure at this time if it will become a hurricane either. Just watch it, be patient, and think about what has happened over the last couple years before getting excited about a major hurricane affecting land.

-Andrew92
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#366 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:10 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Geez, guys. Do you want this storm to hit land? It seems like most of the rookies here think a season is boring because it doesn't have a Cat-5 hitting land.



No, we just want some 'pretty' storms to look at :D that actually LOOK like storms...Just saying that what's developed this year has been absolutely ugly and being torn apart by one thing or another.

The main problem I've been having is that whenever a disturbance starts to rapidly get it's act together and ya think "okay, this one looks like it's going to actually develop", then the next day it throws a curve ball at you and it's looking bad again....

I know most storms that develop this far out end up being fish storms and the chance of it not being a fish storm is very slim. I don't have a problem with that, I have a problem with these storms never seeming to get their act together at all....

I just love the long trackers. They are just fun to track.
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#367 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:10 pm

Andrew92, what you need to understand is that some people want a major hurricane to hit land.
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#368 Postby whereverwx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:10 pm

It looked better the other day. Today, it's very evident that there is shear, as indicated by the sheared cloud tops. In addition, there's also a lot of dry air to the west of the system.

Image
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#369 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:11 pm

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Looking at the Visible close up of TD 6... I am noting that I see am more WNW movement of the system. As the NHC noted in thier discussion that they moved the center 60 miles to the west. It is likely that the models were not initiated properly. TD06 is also looking better on satelite presentation. I'm not talking about overall convection but, the circulation seems to be improving and the shear that was greatly affecting it seems to be abating more and more as the day goes on. TD 6 is currently to the SW of the Trough Axis and will likely improve in organization of convection around the center going into tonight and tomorrow.

I think given the noted WNW movement I noted the NHC at 5PM will likely make a movment more towards 300 or 295 but, mostly likely they will do that at 11PM due to an analysis of the 12 hour movement rather than just go with a wobble.
Water Vapor loop :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

It will be likely that a forecast change tonight will be likely a little more to the left through 72 hours.

Of course this is all just IMO.

Image

Nathan :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#370 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:12 pm

Great loop, calamity. Definately shows the deorganization of the system over the last 24 hours.
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#371 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:13 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Andrew92, what you need to understand is that some people want a major hurricane to hit land.


I know, and I admit I have been just as excited about a hurricane hitting land in the past. But what these people need to understand is that these storms kill and cause massive amounts of damage, and that it CAN happen to them, especially if they live on the coast.

Am I making myself clear? I know it can be exciting, but these storms are NOT to be taken lightly.

-Andrew92
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#372 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:16 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
kenl01 wrote:Y A W N ..................

Third: I think we could use a "boring" Atlantic hurricane season this year, don't you? Florida and the Gulf Coast have had ENOUGH over the last couple years. The last thing we need is another catastrophic hurricane causing massive amounts of devastation. I'm frankly not minding the "boredom" at all.

That said, I would be watching TD #6 very closely. It is too early to say if it'll hit the U.S., but I think it will become a tropical storm soon, possibly tonight. I won't say for sure at this time if it will become a hurricane either. Just watch it, be patient, and think about what has happened over the last couple years before getting excited about a major hurricane affecting land.

-Andrew92



I'm not in the "boring" because one isn't threatening land crowd. I"m in the "boring" because very little in the Atlantic seems to be developing PERIOD....I'll be fine though, I'll have to just get myadrenaline fix by doing tornado chasing again next spring... It's been 2 years since I've done that and OH WHAT A RUSH! :), hehe...
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#373 Postby whereverwx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:16 pm

WindRunner wrote:Great loop, calamity. Definately shows the deorganization of the system over the last 24 hours.

Thanks, and as you stated, it really "shows the deorganization of the system."
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#374 Postby hawkeh » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:16 pm

Why oh why do we need to clutter the threads with this constant bickering. :roll:
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#375 Postby baygirl_1 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:20 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
kenl01 wrote:Y A W N ..................

This thing isn't doing anything yet. Even if this thing becomes Florence, it's going to be one of the most boring storms ever, probably staying a fish anyhow.
Sept 4th and not a single hurricane in the Atlantic ? Wake me up when a hurricane is withing 12 hours of US landfall...........
Time for me to hybernate.............. :wink:

I have to agree with you there. For a tropical weather hobbyist, this is probably the most boring season I've had in the last several years, and no, this has nothing to do with the fact that they haven't affected land. The FEW storms that have formed have been the most pathetic systems I"ve seen and that's only if they develop...I'm still not sold on the idea of this depresson developing into a cane. It looks worse than it did yesterday, and the wave behind it looks worse as well. Will it ever end??? Or is this it???


First: Have you been watching any of the Pacific storms as all, such John or Ioke? Ioke has been VERY impressive over the last couple weeks, and despite weakening, is still going strong.

Second: I think 2000, 2001, and 2002 were more boring than this season so far up to this point. Sure, there was Debby in 2000 before this time, but she fizzled. Everything else was either weak or out to sea (or both). There had been NO hurricanes for ANY amount of time by this time in either 2001 and 2002; of course, 2001 also had already had Allison. Granted, Barry and Chantal were not exactly wimps either, but still, the season was struggling to get going. And 2002 was even less spectacular, which is understandable as that year was an El Nino. At least in 2001, the storms lasted roughly a week (even Allison if you count her remnants). Storms in 2002 were lasting 2-3 days on average by this time, except for Dolly which wasn't strong herself. The storms of 2002 up to this point were MUCH less impressive, in my opinion, than the storms of 2006 so far, save maybe Debby. At least Ernesto, albeit VERY BRIEFLY, became a hurricane at one time.

Third: I think we could use a "boring" Atlantic hurricane season this year, don't you? Florida and the Gulf Coast have had ENOUGH over the last couple years. The last thing we need is another catastrophic hurricane causing massive amounts of devastation. I'm frankly not minding the "boredom" at all.

That said, I would be watching TD #6 very closely. It is too early to say if it'll hit the U.S., but I think it will become a tropical storm soon, possibly tonight. I won't say for sure at this time if it will become a hurricane either. Just watch it, be patient, and think about what has happened over the last couple years before getting excited about a major hurricane affecting land.

-Andrew92


Amen!!!
If one is truly interested in the weather, one is fascinated by the formation of storms, the factors that affect the paths of storms, the cycles of a storm during its lifetime, etc., etc. A storm does not have to necessarily threaten lives or property for you to be interested and eager to learn more from it. You just want to see nature unfold and marvel at its wonder (and sometimes shudder at its power).
And that is my humble opinion.
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#376 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:24 pm

Amen!!!
If one is truly interested in the weather, one is fascinated by the formation of storms, the factors that affect the paths of storms, the cycles of a storm during its lifetime, etc., etc. A storm does not have to necessarily threaten lives or property for you to be interested and eager to learn more from it. You just want to see nature unfold and marvel at its wonder (and sometimes shudder at its power).
And that is my humble opinion.


That's also why I am as fascinated with hurricanes as I am. If I was only dreading hurricanes and not at all marvelled by them, I never would have signed up to be a member of this board. Having a fascination for storms is GREAT! I just don't wish them to hit anyone.

But, let's back to TD #6, OK? I am sincerely hoping it's a fish, but I do think it will intensify over the next couple days.

-Andrew92
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#377 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:25 pm

Shear from the SW is eating it up...will be okay once it eases.
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#378 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:26 pm

Come on!!, let's get back to talking about TD6...All we do is go around in circles because one side can't understand the other side's position, and both sides have valid points...

Anyway, I guess we will just have to wait and see what happens when the troft pulls away and if the depression will get it's act together then.
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Located EAST????

#379 Postby bobbisboy » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:26 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html

Looking at the Visible close up of TD 6... I am noting that I see am more WNW movement of the system. As the NHC noted in thier discussion that they moved the center 60 miles to the east. It is likely that the models were not initiated properly. TD06 is also looking better on satelite presentation. I'm not talking about overall convection but, the circulation seems to be improving and the shear that was greatly affecting it seems to be abating more and more as the day goes on. TD 6 is currently to the SW of the Trough Axis and will likely improve in organization of convection around the center going into tonight and tomorrow.

I think given the noted WNW movement I noted the NHC at 5PM will likely make a movment more towards 300 or 295 but, mostly likely they will do that at 11PM due to an analysis of the 12 hour movement rather than just go with a wobble.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

It will be likely that a forecast change tonight will be likely a little more to the left through 72 hours.

Of course this is all just IMO.

Image

Nathan



Says they located TD 6 WEST............I assume that was correct.



RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A WESTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
DEPRESSION BY ABOUT 60 MILES... GIVING A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE MOTION
OF 305/10. THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
SHEARING THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH...
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#380 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:27 pm

Yes thank you ... I meant to say west but, then typed east. Thanks for the correction.
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