T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[Stratosphere747]

For those that can find historical tracks. Are there any at all, that have even entered the GOM from this position and time of year?

[perk]

As I look at TD 6 this morning, I can see that it is having difficulty consolidating with the remnants of 98L to its southwest. This process will be slow, so I don't expect much increase in organization for another 24 hours or so. No TS today, that's for sure.

The GFS still turns TD 6/Florence out to sea between 60-65W. Yes, the same GFS that indicated the strong ridge over Florida that Ernesto could not possibly penetrate early on. The ECMWF does appear to be indicating that Florence may miss the trof around 60-65W and continue westward toward the east U.S. Coast. That's certainly possible. If so, it could be an east coast threat next Tuesday or Wednesday. Could become a quite strong hurricane, too.

Here's the 00Z ECMWF surface analysis (every 0.5 millibars) for next Sunday evening:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence3.gif

WX57 it's good to see a pro-met keep an open mind about where this storm may end up. If anything good came from Ernesto, it was that we should not depend on these long range model forecast. The environment can change quickly.

[skysummit]

For those that can find historical tracks. Are there any at all, that have even entered the GOM from this position and time of year?

Nope...not within 300 miles of this center:

[perk]

Does anyone think TD6 can turn more westerly than shown in the 5 day cone.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

yes, it is very possible. That is why I think everyone from Brownsville, TX to Portland, ME needs to watch this one closely.

Extreme that narrows it down Brownsville to Portland Maine.

Yea that about mathes up with old Ernie.

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks Sky...

Of course this system could move anywhere...Historical tracks are very useful...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wxman57's ECMWF plot sure does put the 50/50 on the future track. The intensity guestimate almost certiainly looks like a 'cane at a minimum next week. So as usual at this point, we have TX to Maine, poof to Cat 4, and fish to east coast as the range of possibilities.

An east coast landfall looks the most likely scenario if Florence-to-be does not follow the weakness of the trof by Saturday.

I for one, will be VERY intersted in the CLIP, GFS and other globals come Sunday with some upper air data inputs

[wxman57]

For those that can find historical tracks. Are there any at all, that have even entered the GOM from this position and time of year?

You can easily create your own climo map here:

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Just click on the parameter you wan to search in the left frame (like Latitude/Longitude), fill in the lat/lon, specify a distance from that lat/lon point, years to search, months to search, type of storms to search (All Storms), and create the map.

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, although the mean convection has deviated to the north somewhat due to interaction with the upper-level trough, the main LLC area and circulation continues to move west-northwest to nearly northwest, with occasional just north of due west jogs. This is evident on this visible loop.

How much the upper-level trough manages to pull the circulation poleward may be part of the key to an eventual track. If the trough pulls out quicker, the LLC may slowly begin to move more towards the west or west-northwest as the system enters mid-level ridging steering near 60W to 62W. This may result in a more southern track, at least initially. If the effects of the trough subside later, such as beyond 28 hours, a track more towards the northern side of guidance may occur, depending on the synoptics in place.

[wxman57]

Wxman57's ECMWF plot sure does put the 50/50 on the future track. The intensity guestimate almost certiainly looks like a 'cane at a minimum next week. So as usual at this point, we have TX to Maine, poof to Cat 4, and fish to east coast as the range of possibilities.

An east coast landfall looks the most likely scenario if Florence-to-be does not follow the weakness of the trof by Saturday.

I for one, will be VERY intersted in the CLIP, GFS and other globals come Sunday with some upper air data inputs

Yes, nothing is certain. One thing - discard that "CLIP" model, it's only based upon CLImatology and Persenstence. So it's not a real model. Basically, it's a no-skill forecast track used to determine if the NHC forecasts have any skill. If you can't beat climatology and persistence, you have shown no forecast skill.

[Hyperstorm]

I disagree with Blake.

The system is clearly not organized enough yet to even think about upgrading this to a tropical storm. Yes, it has a well-defined broad circulation, but shower activity is very disorganized and scattered throughout the circulation.

Over the past couple of hours, there has been some increase in thunderstorm activity near the center, but is still not organized (in a linear band to the NE of the center) and only moderate in intensity (-50*C). Only if that current burst strengthens significantly, will this become a tropical storm today.

That being said, the system will have an opportunity to strengthen significantly once it's out of the influence of this mid-Atlantic trough.

Right now it's not doing much...

[JonathanBelles]

For those that can find historical tracks. Are there any at all, that have even entered the GOM from this position and time of year?

Nope...not within 300 miles of this center:

nitice that most of those are major hurricanes.

[Trugunzn]

[shaggy]

For those that can find historical tracks. Are there any at all, that have even entered the GOM from this position and time of year?

Nope...not within 300 miles of this center:

nitice that most of those are major hurricanes.

and also note that 2 of those made landfall along NC coastline.Not saying 6 will but theres still alot of ocean between 6 and the EC after the 5 day plot so still plenty of time for a recurve far away from the east coast.

[Stratosphere747]

One point I was trying to convey is any threat to the GOM.

And yes I know that "anything" can happen, but for this system to reach the GOM is a reach.....

EC is another story...

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
The trough axis appears to be moving east to ene and looks to be starting to pick up the pace. I was kind of hoping that the trough woulc hang around a little long but, it looks like GFS had the right Idea with it lift out fairly quickly. Tonight we should start seeing more of a westerly component to the circulation and convection should be able to stay focused near the center.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

I am also expecting a gradual increase in forward speed due to getting caught under the ridge.

Let's hope that the ridge doesn't hold and this thing turns out to sea.

[SouthFloridawx]

THEREAFTER... THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FRACTURE... LEAVING
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEHIND... TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS UPPER
LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM... AND IN ITS WAKE
GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND BY BUILDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN SHOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW A BLEND
OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS WILL BE USED...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[Sanibel]

Dry air has it. I'd wait to see what's left to be picked up after that 2006 mystery factor is done drying it out.

[boca]

If this storm develops I think it will take a Isabel track rather than a track towards the SE coast.My opinion because its already getting pulled more north.

[SouthFloridawx]

Dry air has it. I'd wait to see what's left to be picked up after that 2006 mystery factor is done drying it out.

Where do you see anything that says dry air has it?

[Trugunzn]

Heres the QuikSCAT:



Should be a tropical storm very soon