T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

TheRingo · #281 Postby **TheRingo** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:19 am

Slow development only means less chance of curving north. This is not what we want.

#282 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:22 am

As I look at TD 6 this morning, I can see that it is having difficulty consolidating with the remnants of 98L to its southwest. This process will be slow, so I don't expect much increase in organization for another 24 hours or so. No TS today, that's for sure.

The GFS still turns TD 6/Florence out to sea between 60-65W. Yes, the same GFS that indicated the strong ridge over Florida that Ernesto could not possibly penetrate early on. The ECMWF does appear to be indicating that Florence may miss the trof around 60-65W and continue westward toward the east U.S. Coast. That's certainly possible. If so, it could be an east coast threat next Tuesday or Wednesday. Could become a quite strong hurricane, too.

Here's the 00Z ECMWF surface analysis (every 0.5 millibars) for next Sunday evening:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florence3.gif

Hyperstorm · #283 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:24 am

It's not the shear causing the disorganization this morning. It's the lack of sustained deep convection that is weakening this system.

It looks like as the depression moves northward, it has become embedded in a cloud of dust north of 15N. If it were shear, you would see the deeper reds blowing off to the northeast.

System still has plenty of organization to achieve for an upgrade.

2006 continues to reign...

boca · #284 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:24 am

I have to say one thing Ernesto,remember how pathetic it looked in the Florida Straits I think we got 1 inch of rain out of it. It reorganized off NE Florida and caused North Carolina a respectable tropical storm of 70mph.

HurricaneHunter914 · #285 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:25 am

So TD#6 staying weak is a bad thing for us?

#286 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:27 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:So TD#6 staying weak is a bad thing for us?

Well, if you go with the idea that stronger storms tend to recurve...yes.

boca · #287 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:32 am

Skysummit is right on sat the trough isn't digging southward anymore like yesterday and its about to hit the SE portion of the 500 millibar high pressure and turn more westerly trust me it will look alot different tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

#288 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:34 am

#289 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:36 am

Yea....so it's weakening huh?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM
STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...THOUGH
THESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF
25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION... AND A SMALL AREA OF
POSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT VECTORS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH... QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A
LITTLE THIN... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.

boca · #290 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:39 am

Does anyone think TD6 can turn more westerly than shown in the 5 day cone.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

Website · #291 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:43 am

boca wrote:Does anyone think TD6 can turn more westerly than shown in the 5 day cone.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

It is possible.

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #292 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:44 am

boca wrote:Does anyone think TD6 can turn more westerly than shown in the 5 day cone.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

yes, it is very possible. That is why I think everyone from Brownsville, TX to Portland, ME needs to watch this one closely.

#293 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:44 am

Extremeweatherguy · #294 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:45 am

Josephine96 · #295 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:45 am

LOL.. It's like it's saying.. "how do you like me now"? :lol:

to those who thought she was going to die today..

boca · #296 Postby **boca** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:48 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
boca wrote:Does anyone think TD6 can turn more westerly than shown in the 5 day cone.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
yes, it is very possible. That is why I think everyone from Brownsville, TX to Portland, ME needs to watch this one closely.

Extreme that narrows it down Brownsville to Portland Maine. :lol:

WindRunner · #297 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:49 am

Interesting to note the southward shifts by BAMS/M, FWIW. Also the NHC track is definately on the southern edge of the model consensus, which probably means they are not seeing a system as strong as what the models are depicting. I can't see the track shifting too much further south than where it is now other than to add a slightly more westerly component around 96-120h, but that may or may not occur as well.

Extremeweatherguy · #298 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:50 am

boca wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
boca wrote:Does anyone think TD6 can turn more westerly than shown in the 5 day cone.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
yes, it is very possible. That is why I think everyone from Brownsville, TX to Portland, ME needs to watch this one closely.

Extreme that narrows it down Brownsville to Portland Maine.

lol, yes I think anything is possible at this point, and in fact it could even turn out to sea. I am just not ready to commit to a specific area just yet.

Trugunzn · #299 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:53 am

Intensity frocast:

Thunder44 · #300 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:58 am

The convection does look to be organizing better around the center than earlier this morning as noted by TPC. There is a dry slot just SW of this system that needs to overcome top to develop more.

T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

Who is online