T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

As of now, the projected track tells me one thing.

The entire east coast needs to monitor this system.

I agree with you whole heartily.

As for people saying the storm is finished, remember people said the same thing about Andrew in 1992. Lesson I learned from that simple; it is never over until it is over.

[tgenius]

As of now, the projected track tells me one thing.

The entire east coast needs to monitor this system.

I agree with you whole heartily.

As for people saying the storm is finished, remember people said the same thing about Andrew in 1992. Lesson I learned from that simple; it is never over until it is over.

Having lived through Andrew I'm well aware of this, and just said it didn't look too hot, not "stick a fork in em"

[storms in NC]

I just hope it will don't come this way. NO more rain please. You can see why this is from today. Out to sea please. this is my front yard
http://img524.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... 104gr3.jpg

[rockyman]

Who stole the TUTT?

The Bermuda high is working it today..No trace of bad conditions over the Caribbean and western Atlantic...nothing but light easterlies

Based on these steering maps, the system soon should start to experience the SE side of the high and begin curving back to the west...I could even buy a slight south of west movement...especially if the storm strengthens (based on orientation of the high in the upper levels).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

[jlauderdal]

hopefully the north shift is the beginning of a trend. Kind of like what we saw with ernersto when the models keep shifting more and more east. We want this going north and out to sea.

hebert box, based on the forecast this system misses hebert

If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.

ok, here it is it took me a long time to type all this from my photographic memory.



Jlauderdal, you forgot to add the list

BOX #1 (since 1950)
1950 Baker--Alabama....1950 Dog--out to sea....1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico....1952 Baker-- out to sea....1953 Carol--Nova scotia....1954 ALice--Leeward isl out to sea....1955 Connie--N Carolina....1955 Ione--N Carolina....1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas....1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea....1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard....1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola....1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla....1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Bahamas,Fla,Yucatan,Mex....1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucata,S Texas....1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle....1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc....1984 Klaus--out to sea....1985 Gloria--NE U.S....1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC....1990 Klaus-- out to sea....1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR....1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina....1996 Fran--N Carolina....1996 Hortense--PR,Nova scotia....1997 Erika--out to sea....1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississippi....1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles....2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola....2004 FrancesBahamas,Treasure coast,Fla....




BOX #2 (since 1950)
1951 Item Cayman isl,Cuba....1952 FoxCaymans,Cuba,Bahamas....1961 HattieBelize....1981 KatrinaCuba,Bahamas....1988 GilbertYucatan,mexico....1995 RoxanneYucatan....1998 MitchHonduras....2001 irisBelize....2001 MichelleCuba,Bahamas....2004 Charley W cuba,Fla....2005 EmilyYucatan,Mexico....2005 WilmaYucatan,S Fla....

So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).
What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?
Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.

To wrap things up, two significant Hurricanes that hit South Fla did not pass through this box, Andrew 1992, and Betsy 1965!. Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose names storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.

im busted.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm


please give the author credit on this....it came from hurricanecity.com

[boca]

That trough is just ripping TD6 to shreads will it survive or get sucked up north into it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

[skysummit]

I just hope it will don't come this way. NO more rain please. You can see why this is from today. Out to sea please. this is my front yard
http://img524.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... 104gr3.jpg

Hey....that looks like a picture from down here! That's a normal everyday occurence where I live! LOL

[StormWarning1]

I say 1 more advisory cycle then it is over for TD 6 if it continues to fall apart.

[storms in NC]

that is fine with me. We don't need any more this way.

[southeast fl]

hopefully the north shift is the beginning of a trend. Kind of like what we saw with ernersto when the models keep shifting more and more east. We want this going north and out to sea.

hebert box, based on the forecast this system misses hebert

If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.

To wrap things up, two significant Hurricanes that hit South Fla did not pass through this box, Andrew 1992, and Betsy 1965!. Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose names storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.

im busted.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm


please give the author credit on this....it came from hurricanecity.com

Thanks for that info, very interesting.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think we need to stop underestimating these weak systems, sure they are getting ripped now, but think about later. Remember Ernesto, with so many people thinking it was going to disappate over FL, but actually strengthened. Things change quickly.

[TampaSteve]

That trough is just ripping TD6 to shreads will it survive or get sucked up north into it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Looks like "Shear Madness"!

[Josephine96]

Mark my words folks.. TD 6 is not gonna die that easy. She will get a calmer environment once the trough lifts out which will allow her to intensify..

I also think she may become a tropical storm some time today..

[Trugunzn]

[TampaSteve]

I think we need to stop underestimating these weak systems, sure they are getting ripped now, but think about later. Remember Ernesto, with so many people thinking it was going to disappate over FL, but actually strengthened. Things change quickly.

Exactly...remember Katrina? It's TD 10...nope, it's TD 12...nope, it's the worst natural disaster in US history!

[Josephine96]

Good point about Katrina.. there was a time last year we didn't even know what system she was..

[alicia-w]

several meteorologists on multiple stations yesterday said the shear was going to relax and that then anticipated this storm would strengthen. their words, not mine.

[skysummit]

I think we need to stop underestimating these weak systems, sure they are getting ripped now, but think about later. Remember Ernesto, with so many people thinking it was going to disappate over FL, but actually strengthened. Things change quickly.

Exactly...remember Katrina? It's TD 10...nope, it's TD 12...nope, it's the worst natural disaster in US history!

Believe me....those ridiculous posts about systems dieing just because it doesn't look as organized as it did 24 hours ago makes me want to scream sometimes. I guess you just got to remember some people have a little less knowledge than others.

[Josephine96]

People give up on storms too easy.. Then when it becomes a major.. they think they were right all along

[skysummit]

People give up on storms too easy.. Then when it becomes a major.. they think they were right all along

Yup...those same posters that are saying 1 more advisory then it's over, or TD6 will die today will be the same posters later saying she will be a Cat 3 in a week.

Just give it enough time....it'll survive. It wasn't forecasted to rapidly strenghten today. It only had the possiblity of becoming a TS today, and still does...now today or tomorrow.