T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

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wxman57
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#81 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:28 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:If TD#6 goes north of the Herbert Box, then anywhere north of south Florida will have to keep a watchful eye on this one.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm


That would be the Hebert box, not HeRbert, named after Paul Hebert, former NHC forecaster. Paul Hebert is a Cajun from south Louisiana, very near where I grew up. I met him at the NHC a few years ago. Heberts don't know why people see the British spelling "HeRbert" every time they see "Hebert". Hebert is a French-Cajun name, pronounced "A-Bear".

I now return you to your regularly-scheduled program....
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#82 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:30 pm

TPNT KGWC 040019
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
B. 03/2331Z (74)
C. 14.3N/8
D. 39.8W/0
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: S0.0/03HRS -03/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC SHIFTED 0.4 DEGS E BASED ON BEST
PTRN FIT. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 USING THE LOG10 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL STILL GIVING A DT OF 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT AGREES.

AODT: T2.2 (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI

Air Force T numbers.They give 2.0/2.0 so still a TD.Interesting what they say about the LLC more east.
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#83 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:30 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L


Doesn't 2.5 translate to 35 kts/ 40 mph and a Tropical Storm classification?
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#84 Postby Trugunzn » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:30 pm

It is possible this storm could get sheared apart. That trough has Shear between 40-50kts and heading south. thats why its being pulled north. If it survives tonight and tomorow from the trough it will intensify from there. As soon as trough goes Couple high Pressures will build over Mid-atlantic and central Atlantic and move eastward, and thats where the storm starts to bend west.
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#85 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:31 pm

FWIW,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=126hr
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#86 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:If TD#6 goes north of the Herbert Box, then anywhere north of south Florida will have to keep a watchful eye on this one.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm


That would be the Hebert box, not HeRbert, named after Paul Hebert, former NHC forecaster. Paul Hebert is a Cajun from south Louisiana, very near where I grew up. I met him at the NHC a few years ago. Heberts don't know why people see the British spelling "HeRbert" every time they see "Hebert". Hebert is a French-Cajun name, pronounced "A-Bear".

I now return you to your regularly-scheduled program....


I knew somebody with Hebert as a last name and she was tired of people pronouncing it "Hee-Bert"!
:lol:
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#87 Postby Trugunzn » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:32 pm

nOT gOOD! :eek:

18z GFDL Intensity Forecast

934MB
134KT WINDS
Last edited by Trugunzn on Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#88 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:35 pm

How come GFDL shows a more west track towards the end, but everyone is saying this is a fish?
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#89 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:35 pm



Why didn't they just go all out and make it a strong cat5? If you want to create drama you have to think big. :wink:
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#90 Postby El Nino » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:36 pm

What about Doomsday for FLA if GFDL is right ? :wink:
Won't be the first time that GFDL predicts a killer and then ... poof.
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#91 Postby Bgator » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:36 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:How come GFDL shows a more west track towards the end, but everyone is saying this is a fish?


Who said this would be a fish? Though later on when it reaches Bahamas GFS turns it north...
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#92 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:36 pm

fci wrote:
cycloneye wrote:18z Loop at 384 Hours


Misses SFL by @ 400 miles!
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#93 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:37 pm

All these models are as good as urban legends at this point. 8-)
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#94 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:38 pm

Blown_away wrote:
fci wrote:
cycloneye wrote:18z Loop at 384 Hours


Misses SFL by @ 400 miles!


Oh I agree!
(not sure if your post references my comment about a few "fish" in the 384 hr loop)
I like this loop better than where the 126 leaves it.
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#95 Postby Trugunzn » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:39 pm

It only needs to survive today and tomarrow from the trough and its all intensifing from there with very warm waters and low shear.
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#96 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:39 pm

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin (if available):
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic Ocean
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miamicanes177
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#97 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:39 pm

Bgator wrote:Who said this would be a fish? Though later on when it reaches Bahamas GFS turns it north...
My local met said a trough will protect the US from landfall. I also heard a few people on here say fish.
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#98 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:39 pm

before we start our doomsday predictions, let's wait a few days :wink: lol
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#99 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:41 pm

please stay away from South Florida (and Florida in general for that matter) - we just CANNOT afford another hit :eek: :grr: :grr: :grr:

Back to Labor Day partying....see you guys when the dust settles tomorrow...we have plenty of time to watch this thing :D
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#100 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:41 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:All these models are as good as urban legends at this point. 8-)


Grease Monkey,

Not if they're used together. There's pretty good model agreement attm.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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