T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like that out flow is being taken northeastward, because of the ULT affecting it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[canegrl04]

I hope for my brother's sake,the GFS model is correct.Norfolk,VA already got flooded by Ernesto

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.2 40.1 305./12.0
6 14.8 40.8 309./ 8.7
12 15.4 41.6 311./10.1
18 15.9 42.8 293./12.3
24 16.6 43.5 310./ 9.8
30 17.4 44.0 330./ 9.7
36 18.2 45.0 307./12.0
42 18.5 46.2 287./11.8
48 19.0 47.2 295./10.9
54 19.3 48.2 287./ 9.9
60 19.7 49.1 296./ 9.4
66 20.2 50.1 294./10.0
72 20.4 51.1 281./10.1
78 20.6 52.1 282./ 9.3
84 21.1 53.5 291./14.0
90 21.5 55.0 284./14.8
96 21.9 56.5 283./14.6
102 22.2 58.0 285./13.9
108 22.6 59.5 282./14.7
114 22.8 60.8 281./12.1
120 23.2 62.3 282./13.8
126 23.3 63.5 277./11.0

18z GFDL

[SouthFLTropics]

Here is a pic of another storm that was affected by a trough. A previous poster was correct in saying that Andrew struggled through the first part of his life until he got clear of the trough. After that all bets were off. I'm not saying that this storm is going to be 2006's Andrew just pointing out some similarities and posting the first pic I could find with a trough and a storm in it.

http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/wea00517.htm

[cpdaman]

i know it was about 8 hours ago, but steve lyons seemed to think this would have little chance heading into this trough....i.e death by shear (at least that is what i got out of his comments, although he did say it would most likely develop today)

[Nimbus]

The back of the forecast ridge looks like it is still west of Texas. Too early to see any signs of a savior trough for the east coast. Probably too much random branching for even the best ridge modeling programs this far out.

[cpdaman]

Trugunzn from that post it seems the position of this trough is either further south and further west or stronger than those that allowed andrew fran hugo isabel floyd to slip through. note that the posted says 90% a strom develops east of 50 longitude it doesn't hit the u.s

from what i can tell he has some very informative maps but he didn't really compare the troughs acurately

[HurricaneHunter914]

If TD#6 goes north of the Hebert Box, then anywhere north of south Florida will have to keep a watchful eye on this one.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[brunota2003]

that was a rather interesting post on that other site...(I think the link got deleted) but regardless, it was an interesting read and analysis...dont know how much weight it holds though...kind of a scary thought for me though...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Dont know if its already posted but here's the Floater #1 on TD #6

[Weatherfreak000]

Woah woah we all need to chill a bit.


I'm starting to question this thing's immediate existence. It's looking far less than charming.


Also i'm seeing what I would say is a situation where two system practically playing follow the leader into Florida days and days out is a, for lack of a better word, foolish thing to get excited about so far out.


Activity seems good right now, if this thing fires up nicely then i'll say good chance of an Eastern Seaboard landfall but if it doesn't maybe it'll become food for a possible development behind it.


Alot of disorganization and a hell of a lot of time to watch this. No need to break out the freak out and make ten+ topics about Florida Doomsday

[HURAKAN]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 40.4W AT 03/2100
UTC MOVING NW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SUSTAINED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

[Grease Monkey]

Woah woah we all need to chill a bit.


I'm starting to question this thing's immediate existence. It's looking far less than charming.


Also i'm seeing what I would say is a situation where two system practically playing follow the leader into Florida days and days out is a, for lack of a better word, foolish thing to get excited about so far out.


Activity seems good right now, if this thing fires up nicely then i'll say good chance of an Eastern Seaboard landfall but if it doesn't maybe it'll become food for a possible development behind it.


Alot of disorganization and a hell of a lot of time to watch this. No need to break out the freak out and make ten+ topics about Florida Doomsday

Don't waste your energy. It seems to be no use. I'm starting to accept it. People will continue to post these doomsday topics no matter how ludacris it sounds, but then again what's a good weather freak forum without drama.

[Rainband]

Woah woah we all need to chill a bit.


I'm starting to question this thing's immediate existence. It's looking far less than charming.


Also i'm seeing what I would say is a situation where two system practically playing follow the leader into Florida days and days out is a, for lack of a better word, foolish thing to get excited about so far out.


Activity seems good right now, if this thing fires up nicely then i'll say good chance of an Eastern Seaboard landfall but if it doesn't maybe it'll become food for a possible development behind it.


Alot of disorganization and a hell of a lot of time to watch this. No need to break out the freak out and make ten+ topics about Florida Doomsday

I agree. Nice Post. Or any doomsday for that matter.

[bostonseminole]

Woah woah we all need to chill a bit.


I'm starting to question this thing's immediate existence. It's looking far less than charming.


Also i'm seeing what I would say is a situation where two system practically playing follow the leader into Florida days and days out is a, for lack of a better word, foolish thing to get excited about so far out.


Activity seems good right now, if this thing fires up nicely then i'll say good chance of an Eastern Seaboard landfall but if it doesn't maybe it'll become food for a possible development behind it.


Alot of disorganization and a hell of a lot of time to watch this. No need to break out the freak out and make ten+ topics about Florida Doomsday

What else do people have to do at work?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L

[Rainband]

Work

[fci]

18z Loop at 384 Hours

Here is the complete loop of the 18z GFS.

See a FEW "fish" in the loop.
Wish we could rely on 384 hour loops..

[gatorcane]

a nrothward consolidation, as I have already stated, does not really change anything regarding this becoming a fish, it really only changes the short term track

I am not sure why some are saying immediately north means out to sea. It may mean a more westward track later on since the system will be closer to the high, forcing a mroe westerly track, instead of the expected WNW track

Exactly, anybody along the East coast from the Florida Keys north needs to keep an eye out. I can remember one storm that moved NW then WNW and then W to WSW (Andrew, 1992) - not that I am saying we are going to see that here.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L

That means we may have TS Florence..