T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[cycloneye]

still tracking west so far, shows a little more weaker storm, thats why more west. Also I dont like the looks of the storm behind it:

18z GFS

I made a hypertext link because the graphic was big.Let's not post big images or graphics.

[Wthrman13]

"Fujihara Effect"

That's "Fujiwhara" effect, or interaction, and it only occurs when two TC's of reasonable intensity approach within a certain distance to each other (within a few hundred miles or so). They begin showing perturbations to their tracks that indicate a rotation around a common center. It also usually spells the doom of one or both of the TC's, with the weaker one being adversely affected by the shear associated with the outflow of the other TC. Often, the weaker storm's circulation will be lost within the stronger's, eventually being absorbed by it.

This type of interaction is not unique to just tropical cyclones. It occurs on a wide range of scales of vortices in the atmosphere and other fluids.

[Trugunzn]

about to develope another system off the Africa coast.

18z GFS at 162 Hours

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is what the HPC Extended Forecast Discussion says about TD 6:

...TROPICS...

DEVELOPING DEPRESSION NEAR 40W LIKELY TO BECOME NEXT T.S. MOST
MODELS HAVE BEEM PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ALL
HAVE THE STORM GAINING LATITUDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND ALL HAVE A
RIDGE WEAKNESS BY MID-LATE PERIOD WITH SWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW OFF
THE CONUS COAST EXTENDING SEAWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. TRACK
FOLLOWS TPC/HPC COORDINATION DAYS 3-7. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND
ADVISORIES.

CISCO/ROSENSTEIN


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[marcane_1973]

I see a setup for a East coaster type September where Florida and the Carolinas are in for it if the trough to the north is not able to pull these storms up and out to sea. Near future storm Florence does not pose well with the end of the GFS run where there is a weakness in the ridge off the East coast that could allow it to slip through and make landfall somewhere in the Southeast. Florida and points up you guys need to be paying attention bigtime the next several weeks it seems.

[Derek Ortt]

a nrothward consolidation, as I have already stated, does not really change anything regarding this becoming a fish, it really only changes the short term track

I am not sure why some are saying immediately north means out to sea. It may mean a more westward track later on since the system will be closer to the high, forcing a mroe westerly track, instead of the expected WNW track

[SouthFloridawx]

[WindRunner]

about to develope another system off the Africa coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_162m.gif

The funny thing about that is that that low develops just inland of Africa around T+36 hours, is at 1004mb and 20N at T+84h, and just gets off the coast around T+108h. Just an unusually slow movement depicted, so I'm not sure how much to believe the GFS on this third low timing-wise, though I would not be surprised to see development (to a closed low in EATL) in about 4-5 days.

[fci]

I don't like it... I don't like it one bit.

Twin hurricanes, now wouldn't that be something?

I could not see 2 Hurricanes in such close proximity.

[Blown Away]

The NHC 5 day puts Florence about 200 miles N of the Hebert Box (20/60), if that holds I'll go with history and say FL should be Ok. Carolinas N may have a better chance of seeing Florence. Long way and lots could change.

[Bgator]

Well new 18z GFS has this turning north in the cnetral bahamas and not effecting land till near NY...THough this should still be taken with a grqain of salt as this is about 9 days out...

[Patrick99]

Now now...we all know it's extremely difficult to predict exact steering several days out. We've all got a long time to watch this or anything else that develops.

[jaxfladude]

"Fujiwara Effect"

That's "Fujiwhara" effect, or interaction, and it only occurs when two TC's of reasonable intensity approach within a certain distance to each other (within a few hundred miles or so). They begin showing perturbations to their tracks that indicate a rotation around a common center. It also usually spells the doom of one or both of the TC's, with the weaker one being adversely affected by the shear associated with the outflow of the other TC. Often, the weaker storm's circulation will be lost within the stronger's, eventually being absorbed by it.

This type of interaction is not unique to just tropical cyclones. It occurs on a wide range of scales of vortices in the atmosphere and other fluids.

Thanks for correct spelling and explanation............Yahoo!-ed for name and it gave the wrong spelling.........

[cycloneye]

18z Loop at 384 Hours

Here is the complete loop of the 18z GFS.

[jaxfladude]

Well new 18z GFS has this turning north in the Central Bahamas and not effecting land till near NY...Though this should still be taken with a grain of salt as this is about 9 days out...

And to think that I watched " New York City Hurricane " on History and on Discovery Channels recently.........taken with a grain of salt obviously

[ConvergenceZone]

Very important - If the center reforms to the north, both the track and intensity forecasted will have be adjusted dramatically. When I mean that, I mean that a) Florence will be Fish and b) Florence isn't going to strengthen beyond TS status. It threw off Irene in 2005, and Ernesto this year.

I doubt if the center will reform to the North, but it probably is an outside possibility which is why it was mentioned.

[bellavista2]

With house in NORTHERN bAHAMaS A SHORT QUESTION BEFORE "GAMES BEGIN"
Northern Bahamas--Yes or No

[Bgator]

I have a question, i was only 2 when Andrew hit my town, so i dont remember it well, but when was andrew supposed to curve to sea, wasnt it supposed to? Before it turned west....I realize the GFS has this curving out 10 days from now, but what would cause this weakness in the high?

[terstorm1012]

Andrew was in serious trouble until it bent to the west. An upper level trough kept shearing it.

But then it bent back to the west, got away from the trough, and developed rapidly

(just going from memory, here. Andrew was the first storm I tracked with The Weather Channel and is how I became a great fan of the late John Hope.)

[Rainband]

Well new 18z GFS has this turning north in the Central Bahamas and not effecting land till near NY...Though this should still be taken with a grain of salt as this is about 9 days out...

And to think that I watched " New York City Hurricane " on History and on Discovery Channels recently.........taken with a grain of salt obviously

I am watching it now. Like I said in another thread. Ernesto taught me not to even begin to worry until the 3 day cone.