TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mike815]

How can anyone debate this in here! its clear as day, 1. the model runs show thats its a depression the navy site and nathan in here has been posting even more its a TD. Why all this official stuff all the time its outof control in here any ways half the time. its conclusively a TD! geez

[Windsurfer_NYC]

looks like florida to the carolina's may be on the bullet end of this one in about a week. (Not an actual prediction just from looking at models at this time the risk area I use is from the end points of the furtherest out model plots, and then taking them to the coast)

Don't count out the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This storm is still many days away from the these areas and much can change as the storm organizes itself.

[Dean4Storms]

It sure looks like a TD this afternoon, would see no reason why NHC wouldn't follow through on naming it TD6.

[ConvergenceZone]

is it me or did those models shift it south again??? I don't remember the models appearing that far south when the west shift took place.... If those models are accurate then yes, we will need to watch this for sure!

[skysummit]

It sure looks like a TD this afternoon, would see no reason why NHC wouldn't follow through on naming it TD6.

Especially since they mentioned the possibilty of advisories being released this evening if organization continued. I think everyone can agree that organization has continued

[jhamps10]

Don't count out the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This storm is still many days away from the these areas and much can change as the storm organizes itself.

Your right, and I should have emphized the AT THIS TIME part of my post. I totally forgot about the bahamas and the northern islands.

[WindRunner]

latest models:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

looks like everyone needs to watch this one. The models have shifted even further south! IF they verify, then it looks like S. Florida or the Florida straights are a good possibility.

However, they are just as likely as a recurve around the ridge and out to sea or a recurve by a trough to any point on the east coast . . . I could very easily see this thing going NW then turning back W (like the models show), then turning back to the NW or N for something on the east coast. We won't have a good idea for another couple days, so I'd prefer not to XTRP from the end of the 5-day plots.

[SouthFLTropics]

latest models:



looks like everyone needs to watch this one. The models have shifted even further south! IF they verify, then it looks like S. Florida or the Florida straights are a good possibility.

You are correct that everyone needs to watch this one. At this time though I do believe that it is too early to sound the alarms for one particular area. This setup does remind me of Frances but that doesn't mean that the same thing is going to happen. I would think, and pro mets correct me if I'm wrong, but a trough is supposed to dig south and east by the end of next week and that could pull this thing back North and East. The current model runs are not showing the forecast that far out. Once again, like I said earlier, it is a wait and see.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

No fishing for this one.

what makes you say that Dixie? I know that there's always a small possibility it won't, but the METs and models seem to be saying recurve mostly likely...

I havent seen a Pro met say it would most likely recurve. Sure it will move northwest initially but all models point to a turn back to the west which would indicate that a recurve "fish" is on the UN-Likely side.

Models (all curve west)
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Another models link (Most curve west)
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

GFS Model link (curves back west)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/23.html

UKMET Model link (curves back west)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 12/40.html

Canadian (Doesnt show it curving back west like the others but not a definite fish curve here either)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/17.html

[ConvergenceZone]

latest models:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

looks like everyone needs to watch this one. The models have shifted even further south! IF they verify, then it looks like S. Florida or the Florida straights are a good possibility.

However, they are just as likely as a recurve around the ridge and out to sea or a recurve by a trough to any point on the east coast . . . I could very easily see this thing going NW then turning back W (like the models show), then turning back to the NW or N for something on the east coast. We won't have a good idea for another couple days, so I'd prefer not to XTRP from the end of the 5-day plots.

Well, I'd say, let's vote for a strong Fish storm. We will all be happy that way

[fci]

You can clearly see the trough to the north of this system that is going to pull it north into the Atlantic. It does appear though that this trough probably will pull out and be replaced by the Bermuda high once again. I believe that the models are picking up on that. The big question then is when this system turns back to the west, how far west does it get before turning back to the North and then hopefully Northeast. It will most likely come down to timing with the next trough coming across the CONUS. Hopefully it will pick it up and kick it out to sea before this thing makes it to the coast. I do believe though that the islands should be safe at this time. The current trough to the north of the system will probably be enough to pull it far enough north to miss the islands. The Bahama's on the other hand may be an entirely different proposition. As always, its a wait and see game.

I'm seeing the turns to the west at the end of the model runs to be a bit disconcerting.

Someone earlier posted that it would be too far north to turn west, something about being that north of 20 that far east and still making landfall on the US coastline.

I am reminded of Andrew which was at 20-60 and got as far north as 25 when he turned left.

Something is telling the models to curve it north and then turn it west.
Let's hope that it does not happen since there will be no land between it and the US if it takes that course.

[CrazyC83]

Anyway, I highly doubt that this one is going like Debby did. This is one that I see doing some serious damage IF it can hold together.

[Dmetal81]

The parameters for colorado state are jumping on some serious cylonic genesis. Havent seen them this high yet this summer! I'd say it'll be official shortly


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... enesis.asp

[wxmann_91]

This one will need to be watched. Many of the Globals did develop this very bullishly, so they are obviously picking up on something. The GFS last night develop an upper anticyclone over the system, and a very favorable and large outflow pattern over the system. Though that may be overdone, the bottom line is this could be our first true hurricane.

As for track, the trough will induce a slight weakness that will make this system move northwest initially. It might not develop strongly for the first 24-36 hours in a SAL and shear environment. Then, the ridge will rebuild, sending possibly Florence westward. I believe this will occur near 20N. In a favorable environment, I believe marked intensification will occur around this time. Afterwards, it could possibly be a threat to the east coast way down the road.

[Thunder44]

Here's a rainbow image of 6L with the 18z initial plot:

[Canelaw99]

Well, those models will have everyone on the east coast a little jumpy for a while if that trend continues. Until then, we get to have fun watching the birth of yet another little tropical system. Congrats, S2K, it's a girl (almost)!

[jhamps10]

well you can clearly see the center in this one, man looking at that rainbow, I thought that it was a hurricane being born....

[N2FSU]

After Ernesto, I am reminded once again that it is a waste of time to try to predict where these things are going 7-10 days in advance. It IS entertaining and gives us a chance to talk about something we all love to follow, but it ALWAYS comes down to the position of high pressure and timing of fronts. No matter what ANY model says today, it WILL change and nothing will be even remotely accurate until a storm is 72 hours or less from projected landfall.

[Brent]

well you can clearly see the center in this one, man looking at that rainbow, I thought that it was a hurricane being born....

It probably is.

[fci]

Very Andrew and Frances looking with the jog to the left (west) at the end.

Clearly there is a very long time to track (soon to be TD #6) this system and plenty of model trends up and down to endure.

Couple of observations from the board:
No one can clearly call this a "fish" or not call it a "fish" at this time. Way too early.
Say you "think" it might be or something to that effect.
But just blanketly saying "it is a fish" or "it is not a fish" is just way too premature.

Also, I wholeheartedly agree with Luis that the title gets changed when the NHC officialy designates a system. Whether that be an Invest, TD, TS or Hurricane.
Too many glance at the board's thread titles to see what is going on (if anything) and I think S2K would not want to be irresponsible to alarm anyone with an erroneous title.