TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Eyewall

#221 Postby Eyewall » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:05 pm

Anyone have the intensity forecasts for this thing?
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rnbaida

#222 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Above is the 12z GFS loop.It misses the East Coast of the U.S,however as a powerful hurricane.It seems to develop from what is now 90L.Future runs will show if this will be a trend from GFS or abandons this scenario.Also let's see what the other global models have about this to see if there is a consensus from them.
It does get very close to FL.... But it is way too far out to predict where this is going.... It hasnt even become a TD yet.....
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Sanibel
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#223 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:06 pm

I think 90L is currently curling up into a cyclone while 98L is a weak satellite vortex that will eventually get absorbed by 90L. I could be wrong on 98L.
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#224 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:06 pm

HURAKAN wrote:http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Click on the Vis and Ir Floater over the Central. Ex. 98L isn't moving much, or that what it seems, but it isn't moving toward 90L.


Since the circulation from 90L is so large, it may eventually suck the LLC with 98L, before it has a chance to move very far westard. Even if that does happen the outflow from 90L will probably created higher shear over 98L, preventing development.
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rnbaida

#225 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:07 pm

Image
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Sanibel
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#226 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:07 pm

Exactly Thunder.
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rnbaida

#227 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:08 pm

I am calling 95% chance that we will have TD6 by 5pm....
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#228 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:09 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Click on the Vis and Ir Floater over the Central. Ex. 98L isn't moving much, or that what it seems, but it isn't moving toward 90L.


Since the circulation from 90L is so large, it may eventually suck the LLC with 98L, before it has a chance to move very far westard. Even if that does happen the outflow from 90L will probably created higher shear over 98L, preventing development.


AGREE.
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#229 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:09 pm

I can't remember the last storm that went north of 20 that far east and still made landfall on the contininental US coastline.

98l as a seperate open wave? Maybe.
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#230 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:09 pm

That is a bit scary Cycloneye for the east coast when you take into account how much error there is likely to be that far out!
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#231 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:10 pm

Eyewall wrote:Anyone have the intensity forecasts for this thing?


SHIPS 12z has it near 100mph in 5 days.
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rnbaida

#232 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:10 pm

I really dont think it will get that close to the US... Only the GFS sees this right now...
Last edited by rnbaida on Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#233 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:11 pm

rnbaida wrote:I really dont think it will get that far close to the US... Only the GFS sees this right now...


Which one is it??? Far or Close???
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rnbaida

#234 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:11 pm

skysummit wrote:
Eyewall wrote:Anyone have the intensity forecasts for this thing?


SHIPS 12z has it near 100mph in 5 days.

Ships always overdoes intensity.... my guess it 75mph in 5 days....
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#235 Postby huricanwatcher » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:11 pm

with its current speed and just for interest sakes... how many days (if it stays on current track) would it take to get to the east coast?
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#236 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:11 pm

I'd rather track a major fish hurricane than a major landfalling hurricane.
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rnbaida

#237 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:13 pm

It looks like it could be a major hurricane....
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#238 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:13 pm

skysummit wrote:
rnbaida wrote:I really dont think it will get that far close to the US... Only the GFS sees this right now...


Which one is it??? Far or Close???


LOL. Glad I'm not the only one confused. :P

and I agree that this is probably our best chance for a major yet.
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rnbaida

#239 Postby rnbaida » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:14 pm

skysummit wrote:
rnbaida wrote:I really dont think it will get that far close to the US... Only the GFS sees this right now...


Which one is it??? Far or Close???
sorry it is close...I havnt had any sleep for the last 24 hours...
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#240 Postby WmE » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:14 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I'd rather track a major fish hurricane than a major landfalling hurricane.


100% agreed!
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