Front page story about Hurricane models. They mention a couple storm2k posts about Ernesto. I will see if I can get a electronic link.
Found link:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0903.html
Storm2K mentioned in Palm Beach Post Story
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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jabber
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Storm2K mentioned in Palm Beach Post Story
Last edited by jabber on Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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stormchazer
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
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DanKellFla
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Interesting, and, as some here were saying just a couple of weeks ago - beware what you post here (especially the professional meteorologists who post here), since you never know who will be reading it - including those in media...
As attorneys like to say - the Internet is public domain...
Frank
As attorneys like to say - the Internet is public domain...
Frank
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JonathanBelles
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brunota2003
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thats cool...I was one of the people stating that the cone was so close to Florida that Florida needed to watch it, just encase, even when almost everyone was saying there was no way of it hitting Florida...then the GFS shifted and once again almost everyone discounted it...then later it came almost over me...I guess Ernesto didnt like me for that...
as it just about went over my head...after going over Florida...cool article, and they state their sources, I give them a thumbs up 
as it just about went over my head...after going over Florida...cool article, and they state their sources, I give them a thumbs up
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I never used to think much of the legal side of meteorology, until I heard that a number of retired NWS meteorologists had become hired "professional witnesses", and, are often called on to give a professional opinion in trials that have weather as a critical element in the outcome of a court case (accidents, etc.), and is similar to those who are called or subpoenaed, because they have a professional background in weaponry or medicine.
Frank
Frank
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Kudos to the GFS this time !
I remember a couple of runs about three days before it moved into the FL straits. It took the system into the eastern GOM as a stronger system initially, stalled it for about 36 hours, then pulled it back NE across the Panhandle and off the SE cast as a much weaker cyclone with only about 1 or 2 closed isobars. Although the exact track was not yet known, the idea of Ernesto turning north sooner was right on target, in additon to weakening the cyclone. Looks like the trough digging SE from the Rockies was to be a major factor in the storms overall movement.
I remember a couple of runs about three days before it moved into the FL straits. It took the system into the eastern GOM as a stronger system initially, stalled it for about 36 hours, then pulled it back NE across the Panhandle and off the SE cast as a much weaker cyclone with only about 1 or 2 closed isobars. Although the exact track was not yet known, the idea of Ernesto turning north sooner was right on target, in additon to weakening the cyclone. Looks like the trough digging SE from the Rockies was to be a major factor in the storms overall movement.
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Derek Ortt
Being right for the wrong reasons still means the GFS was wrong. The storm did not decouple as it ws forecasting.
If it were a student in any met class, it would have received a 1/10 for its answer and had it have been a scientific journal entry, it would have been flat out rejected.
Being lucky does not mean correct
If it were a student in any met class, it would have received a 1/10 for its answer and had it have been a scientific journal entry, it would have been flat out rejected.
Being lucky does not mean correct
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chadtm80
chadtm80 wrote:We have been mentioned in at least 4 Palm Beach Posts articles over the last couple years that I have read.. If you do a google search you may still be able to find them
All right, who here works for the Palm Beach Post?
I think it is great that this site is mentioned...it goes to show that this site and its members, for the most part, DO offer good analysis and reasoning on tropical weather...and that is why i remain and continue to read each season.
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chadtm80
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stormtruth
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ALhurricane
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Derek Ortt wrote:Being right for the wrong reasons still means the GFS was wrong. The storm did not decouple as it ws forecasting.
If it were a student in any met class, it would have received a 1/10 for its answer and had it have been a scientific journal entry, it would have been flat out rejected.
Being lucky does not mean correct
I agree 1000% on this. I said it during the storm and I will say it now, the GFS got it 'right' for ALL the wrong reasons. Those GFS runs did not synoptically make sense.
There really should be no praise given to the model in this case.
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