The GOM can support a Cat 5 hurricane

[wxmann_91]

Not surprising, right? But look at the Max Potential Hurricane Intensity.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Frankly, not even last year did I see the ENTIRE Gulf be able to support a <880 hurricane.

[huricanwatcher]

the GOM doesnt need to support a cat5 in my opinion ..... better be careful what you wish for

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not faverable any where else. In believe me if it was faverable it would be possible...But not this year.

[SouthFloridawx]

the GOM doesnt need to support a cat5 in my opinion ..... better be careful what you wish for

Agreed.

[wxmann_91]

Conditions can change quickly Matt. But I am just saying that it can support a Cat 5, not that a Cat 5 will occur. Oh, and I'm not wishing for one in the GOM. DEFINITELY NOT.

[WindRunner]

I see what you are saying, though, wxmann. That MPHI is definately far above what it was anytime last year.

[Derecho]

That site has been up for something like 10 years, and the entire GOM has been ABLE to POTENTIALLY support a Category 5 hurricane in early September every single time I've looked at it.

Once again goes to show there's a bit too much focus on SSTs rather than upper level conditions.

[wxmann_91]

1. MPHI is based on SST and Heat Content

2. I know the upper level conditions aren't favorable, but they CAN CHANGE. Again, just saying that a Cat 5 CAN be supported in the GOM, NOT that it will happen.

3. I know that a Cat 5 can be supported in the GOM in just about any +AMO September, but the huge blob in the GOM jumped out at me since for me personally, I've never seen just about the whole GOM be able to support an 880 mb hurricane. Again, NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN.

Did anybody actually click the link?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Actually yes, I clicked the link. The fact that the GOM "can" support a Cat 5 comes as no surprise in early September--such has been the case for years on end. Last year it proved it with a couple reaching peak winds in the 175-185 mph range. But there ARE other factors to consider. I don't believe in fear-mongering (Not that I'm saying you are, so don't assume that), it's just that "potential" does not imply "probability". We've made it this far with nothing more than a barely Cat 1 storm that lasted as such for only a few hours, and with any luck, and God's good Grace, we'll make it through this month as well. I dearly hope we will. And frankly, I don't care WHO doesn't like hearing it, the area decidedly does NOT need any such storm for a long loooooong time to come. Give us time to recover--please!
(Not aimed at you Wxman, just an aside.)

A2K

[george_r_1961]

That site has been up for something like 10 years, and the entire GOM has been ABLE to POTENTIALLY support a Category 5 hurricane in early September every single time I've looked at it.

Once again goes to show there's a bit too much focus on SSTs rather than upper level conditions.

GREAT point. You can have 90F SSTS and if u have unfavorable upper level conditions you will not get a tropical cyclone. Time and time again I hear references to high SST's (not just on storm2k..everywhere) with little consideration given to the UL's and dry air that have dominated much of the atlantic basin this year.

[wxmann_91]

I agree George, this thread was just to point out the high Heat Potential, not saying that conditions are favorable for development (if that post was directed toward me).

Thank you for the great reply A2K.

[george_r_1961]

I agree George, this thread was just to point out the high Heat Potential, not saying that conditions are favorable for development (if that post was directed toward me).Thank you for the great reply A2K.

It wasnt..sorry if u took offense.

[wxmann_91]

None taken.

[Stratosphere747]

Minus this gosh forsaken chart...

The GOM most likely has been "able to potentially" support a cat 5 for centuries in this time frame....

Side note -- Not a knock on you 91 for posting the link, as I know that you have a good understanding on the overall dynamics of tropical entities....

[Derek Ortt]

I may be mistaken, and if I am, I need to reread the Emanuel papers

I believe MPI is SST based, not heat content based, though a new MPI takes into account surface winds speeds and RH values as they relate to upper tropospheric temps

[Downdraft]

And Yellowstone has the potential to erupt and make all the landfalling hurricanes put together seem like a spring shower. Not saying it's going to happen just has the potential. I know totally off topic but sometimes I crack myself up.

[wxmann_91]

I have not been looking at these maps for a long time, only since August. So, if you all are saying this is normal, back it up. Show me a map that is more impressive than this.

[Ixolib]

And Yellowstone has the potential to erupt and make all the landfalling hurricanes put together seem like a spring shower. Not saying it's going to happen just has the potential. I know totally off topic but sometimes I crack myself up.