Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#101 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:55 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
HenkL wrote:It's 99L.INVEST now on the nrlmry site.


Post it up there...


I changed the title.
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#102 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:58 am

Image
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rnbaida

#103 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:59 am

Have any models run on this invest yet?
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#104 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:59 am

HURAKAN wrote:This system should be 99L already.


They heard me immediately I wrote the statament above!!!!!
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#105 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:00 am

This is system is way more interesting than 98L..which will be a fish
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#106 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:00 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060902 1200 060903 0000 060903 1200 060904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 60.5W 15.6N 62.6W 15.5N 64.7W 15.4N 67.0W
BAMM 15.5N 60.5W 15.4N 63.0W 15.4N 65.8W 15.4N 68.4W
A98E 15.5N 60.5W 15.6N 63.1W 15.9N 65.7W 16.4N 68.1W
LBAR 15.5N 60.5W 15.7N 62.9W 15.8N 65.3W 15.9N 67.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060904 1200 060905 1200 060906 1200 060907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 69.5W 15.9N 75.0W 16.8N 80.4W 17.7N 84.0W
BAMM 15.6N 71.2W 16.4N 76.8W 17.2N 81.7W 17.9N 85.4W
A98E 16.7N 70.6W 18.6N 75.5W 20.4N 79.9W 23.3N 82.7W
LBAR 15.9N 70.3W 16.5N 75.3W 17.5N 79.3W 17.9N 81.6W
SHIP 49KTS 63KTS 72KTS 78KTS
DSHP 49KTS 63KTS 72KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 60.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 57.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


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#107 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:01 am

ships has it at 30mph winds speeds right now.
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#108 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:04 am

it a very small and still disorganized system.
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#109 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:04 am

HURAKAN wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:This system should be 99L already.


They heard me immediately I wrote the statament above!!!!!


Alright I'll give that one, so what's the next POOF or TD. IF the UPPER level winds do become more favorable as SFWX says, it will probably crank up pretty quick.
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#110 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:05 am

tailgater wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:This system should be 99L already.


They heard me immediately I wrote the statament above!!!!!


Alright I'll give that one, so what's the next POOF or TD. IF the UPPER level winds do become more favorable as SFWX says, it will probably crank up pretty quick.
Right now it is having trouble doing anythign becuase of all the dry air on every side of it.
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#111 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:06 am

What is the shear forecast like around this system?
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#112 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:06 am

rnbaida wrote:What is the shear forecast like around this system?

I posted it on the previous page.
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#113 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:07 am

Image

First models graphic for 99L.
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#114 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:08 am

:uarrow: Those models are highly inaccurate.
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#115 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:09 am

Once the GFDL runs, i think we should have a "feel" on where the invest wil go and if there will be any development.
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#116 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:09 am

rnbaida wrote:it a very small and still disorganized system.


Small yes, but it's shown a fairly well developed LLC(naked) for the last 2 or 3 days, but I'd agree convection is dis organized ATT.
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#117 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:09 am

ImageLatest visible shot on the invest.
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#118 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:11 am

Do you think they can schedule a recon?
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#119 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:22 am

Image There is 20-30kt shear ahead of this system...
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#120 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:30 am

2006 definitly looks like an El Nino year.
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