Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[BensonTCwatcher]

interesting the shallow BAMS take it west but the global models see a weakness...

early to say where it will go

Shallow BAM isn't on the SFWMD graphic (that has become harder to read since they've added the extra models) for whatever reason. It takes the system to the north on a track between that of the LBAR and GFDL. That's why I was saying that the BAMs were 'inverted, because they are doing the opposite of the rule of stronger/north weaker/west rule of thumb.

As for BensonTCwatcher's comment regarding the GFDL... it didn't really do that well with Ernesto. Check out the model performance page for Ernesto to see. At most time periods it was the weakest link of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN (GFS) consensus... at the later periods it underperformed CLIPER.

It's entertaining to look back on the first full set of plots for the invest that became Ernesto. Turned out that LBAR(?!) had it best, with the Shallow BAM being competitive. Other than that though, none of them were better off than CLIPER.

OK I'll concede to the overall performance on the CLIPER, but the GFDL had Ernesto crossing Cuba and it also did very well as it exited FL ( as did the GFS) Particularly when the dropsonde data was added to the GFS. I did not do any comparison on overall or early cycle.

[gatorcane]

the GFDL also correctly predicted the demise of Chris earlier - I think it seems to handle ULLs very well and 2006 is full of them.

I really think that the other models don't know how to handle bit TUTT lows properly as we saw with both Ernesto and Chris.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL was horrible with Chris

Had it diving SW and dying over Hispaniola.

Being correct for the wrong reasons is the same as being wrong

[rnbaida]

Models have no idea where this is going....

[wxmann_91]

GFDL was horrible for both Chris and Ernesto. It had one run correct but all the rest of the runs were swaying back and forth.

Many of the Globals, however, did not latch on to a strong hurricane for either Chris or Ernesto.

[Sanibel]

It hit a diurnal dry pulse right now. 2006 is strange, these dry systems somehow rebound a little further west from here.

[clfenwi]

regarding your statement about the GFDL I'm not sure about that - if you look back when Ernesto was getting going in the Eastern Caribbean, the GFDL CORRECTLY called for a NW movement over eastern cuba followed by a WNW track into the Eastern GOM.

All of the other models except the AVNS were saying W track into the NW Caribbean...

A point of clarification, when I wrote"Turned out that LBAR(?!) had it best, with the Shallow BAM being competitive. Other than that though, none of them were better off than CLIPER." I was refering to that particular model run, not overall performance. For that, refer to the link provided.

The GFDL was on a nw movement over Cuba before the others (251200 runs, but it also abandoned that solution thereafter) ([url=http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL05_06082600.png]260000
runs[/url]) and from that point on (until the upper air obs were collected), was on the left side of dynamic guidance (270000 runs)

Point being is that it can be easy for us to have selective memory; remember a good run or two of model X and then think 'yeah, model X' did good, when the reality is that if one steps back and look at the big picture (over the life of the storm), one finds that model X really didn't do so well.

[gatorcane]

regarding your statement about the GFDL I'm not sure about that - if you look back when Ernesto was getting going in the Eastern Caribbean, the GFDL CORRECTLY called for a NW movement over eastern cuba followed by a WNW track into the Eastern GOM.

All of the other models except the AVNS were saying W track into the NW Caribbean...

A point of clarification, when I wrote"Turned out that LBAR(?!) had it best, with the Shallow BAM being competitive. Other than that though, none of them were better off than CLIPER." I was refering to that particular model run, not overall performance. For that, refer to the link provided.

The GFDL was on a nw movement over Cuba before the others (251200 runs, but it also abandoned that solution thereafter) ([url=http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL05_06082600.png]260000
runs[/url]) and from that point on (until the upper air obs were collected), was on the left side of dynamic guidance (270000 runs)

Point being is that it can be easy for us to have selective memory; remember a good run or two of model X and then think 'yeah, model X' did good, when the reality is that if one steps back and look at the big picture (over the life of the storm), one finds that model X really didn't do so well.

Yes, I agree about the selective memory part but I thought it showed it showed a NW movement for *many* more runs than just a couple.

[SouthFloridawx]

If this system can get set up I would be interested to see if it doesn't get caught under the high in response to another trough diving down into the Southern United States.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Looking at the GFS forecast it develops another Upper Level low to cut off from a ULT that pulls out in 3-4 days in the Central atlantic.

I would be interested to see the strength of the ridge after the ULT pulls out.

I guess it all depends on if this system gets going or not. If it strengthens Surley it will be pulled farther north by the Developing Upper Level trough. But as the ULT moves eastward it could stay under the ridge and follow the ULL above the Islands. I guess its gonna be all timing and the strength of the features.

But, most of all it would depend on development.

[DanKellFla]

Finally, something I write is actually taken as funny. Thanks everybody.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/2315 UTC 10.8N 37.0W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020928
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT SEP 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[johngaltfla]

interesting the shallow BAMS take it west but the global models see a weakness...

early to say where it will go

Shallow BAM isn't on the SFWMD graphic (that has become harder to read since they've added the extra models) for whatever reason. It takes the system to the north on a track between that of the LBAR and GFDL. That's why I was saying that the BAMs were 'inverted, because they are doing the opposite of the rule of stronger/north weaker/west rule of thumb.

As for BensonTCwatcher's comment regarding the GFDL... it didn't really do that well with Ernesto. Check out the model performance page for Ernesto to see. At most time periods it was the weakest link of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN (GFS) consensus... at the later periods it underperformed CLIPER.

It's entertaining to look back on the first full set of plots for the invest that became Ernesto. Turned out that LBAR(?!) had it best, with the Shallow BAM being competitive. Other than that though, none of them were better off than CLIPER.

regarding your statement about the GFDL I'm not sure about that - if you look back when Ernesto was getting going in the Eastern Caribbean, the GFDL CORRECTLY called for a NW movement over eastern cuba followed by a WNW track into the Eastern GOM.

All of the other models except the AVNS were saying W track into the NW Caribbean...

Uh, the GFDL also called for ernie to become a Cat 3 on my doorstep in 96 hours. Didn't happen, thank God....

[rnbaida]

Again, it will most likely become a fish.

[NONAME]

Again untill it strengthens it won't go much of anywhere but west.

[cheezyWXguy]

im actually surprized that this is even an invest right now...its just a ring of convection...it looks pretty bad. But I do think it probably wont be a fish if/when it developes

[Josephine96]

Bring on #6!

[perk]

Again, it will most likely become a fish.

You need to offer up some sound proof that this system is gonna be a fish.

[rnbaida]

Again, it will most likely become a fish.

You need to offer up some sound proof that this system is gonna be a fish.

take a look at the GFDL....One of the worlds best tropical systems model....

[millibar]

Looking at the global models, I see absolutely no long-term support from any ridging as to allow a system to even remotely approach the CONUS, and maybe even the islands...

...but that and a buck or two will by ya a cup o' joe... just how I currently view things.

Chuck