Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[cycloneye]

007
WHXX04 KWBC 012331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 38.2 270./13.0
6 11.2 38.4 273./ 1.7
12 11.8 39.1 312./ 9.4
18 12.2 40.2 289./11.3
24 12.1 41.3 264./10.8
30 12.2 41.6 291./ 3.0
36 12.6 42.7 290./11.6
42 12.7 43.3 278./ 5.8
48 13.0 43.6 309./ 4.1
54 13.6 43.7 346./ 6.4
60 14.1 44.2 314./ 7.0
66 14.6 44.6 326./ 5.7
72 15.3 44.9 334./ 7.9
78 16.3 45.2 344./10.2
84 17.2 46.2 314./12.8
90 17.9 46.9 313./10.3
96 18.7 47.9 309./12.1
102 19.2 48.6 307./ 8.1
108 19.7 49.2 309./ 8.2
114 19.9 49.9 289./ 6.5
120 20.2 50.3 307./ 4.7
126 20.5 50.8 297./ 5.6



First plots from the GFDL model for 98L.

[rnbaida]

the GFDL does have a 70-80kt system at 120 hours..... Could this be florence???

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060902 0000 060902 1200 060903 0000 060903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 37.0W 11.2N 38.8W 11.2N 40.4W 11.3N 41.6W
BAMM 11.0N 37.0W 11.3N 38.5W 11.4N 39.6W 11.9N 40.7W
A98E 11.0N 37.0W 11.1N 39.1W 11.5N 41.2W 11.8N 43.1W
LBAR 11.0N 37.0W 11.5N 39.1W 12.2N 41.1W 13.0N 43.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060904 0000 060905 0000 060906 0000 060907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 42.6W 12.5N 44.8W 12.6N 47.2W 12.8N 50.5W
BAMM 12.7N 41.7W 14.0N 44.0W 14.0N 46.7W 13.4N 49.2W
A98E 12.2N 44.8W 13.6N 48.6W 14.9N 52.6W 16.7N 56.5W
LBAR 13.8N 45.4W 16.0N 49.4W 18.2N 53.7W 20.6N 57.1W
SHIP 48KTS 66KTS 72KTS 72KTS
DSHP 48KTS 66KTS 72KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 37.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 33.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z BAM Models.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00z Graphic.

[Extremeweatherguy]

scary how the models bring this to hurricane strength within 5 days!

[BensonTCwatcher]

You know the GFDL was good with Ernesto, I am not sure I buy that "jump" into a weakness to the NW of the system, I guess we'll know late tomorrow if that verifies

[double D]

Seems like the models have shifted the system further north.

[Nimbus]

The storms have been gaining convection near 50w this season so it is still early to talk about track. Since 98 is down around 10n what is forecast to pull it up out of there before reaching the islands?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The current motion (according to that model map) is WSW, so this shows that the models are already not verifying with it's initial motion.

I think this will stay far enough south to be not affected much by the weakness. It may slow down a bit, but that's it.

I think this is island bound..

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

the GFDL does have a 70-80kt system at 120 hours..... Could this be florence???

Hate to be a party pooper but

That turns it northward already before it even gets to the islands.
http://tinyurl.com/oz4gt

[BensonTCwatcher]

There's a closed low to the NW of 98L which I see no signs of now?? then 98L follows into the weakness in the ridge....I doubt it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006090118-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Dean4Storms]

Well if trend of a season is any indication we all know where most of them from this spot have ended up this year, Chris just north of the islands headed westward and of course Ernesto into the Carib.

[Noah]

Looks like a fish???

[Beam]

scary how the models bring this to hurricane strength within 5 days!

SHIPS/DSHPS nearly always does that. It's useless until this becomes a depression (if it even gets that far).

[txwatcher91]

Looks like a fish???

Looks like a EC or GOM storm to me.

[gatorcane]

interesting the shallow BAMS take it west but the global models see a weakness...

early to say where it will go

[gatorcane]

here is the latest sat pic and it also shows a huge blob about ready to move off Africa. Looks very promising..

[BensonTCwatcher]

Here is some analysis by a rank ameteur I thought I'd try having some fun with this.


The wave near the Islands seems to be getting it moisture down the marked channel. All the dry around is just preventing development of the convection. The dry area is abating just around it. I used the shortwave image so it's easier to see the small inflow. 98L is too far away to be affected by this wave.

[clfenwi]

interesting the shallow BAMS take it west but the global models see a weakness...

early to say where it will go

Shallow BAM isn't on the SFWMD graphic (that has become harder to read since they've added the extra models) for whatever reason. It takes the system to the north on a track between that of the LBAR and GFDL. That's why I was saying that the BAMs were 'inverted, because they are doing the opposite of the rule of stronger/north weaker/west rule of thumb.

As for BensonTCwatcher's comment regarding the GFDL... it didn't really do that well with Ernesto. Check out the model performance page for Ernesto to see. At most time periods it was the weakest link of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN (GFS) consensus... at the later periods it underperformed CLIPER.

It's entertaining to look back on the first full set of plots for the invest that became Ernesto. Turned out that LBAR(?!) had it best, with the Shallow BAM being competitive. Other than that though, none of them were better off than CLIPER.

[gatorcane]

interesting the shallow BAMS take it west but the global models see a weakness...

early to say where it will go

Shallow BAM isn't on the SFWMD graphic (that has become harder to read since they've added the extra models) for whatever reason. It takes the system to the north on a track between that of the LBAR and GFDL. That's why I was saying that the BAMs were 'inverted, because they are doing the opposite of the rule of stronger/north weaker/west rule of thumb.

As for BensonTCwatcher's comment regarding the GFDL... it didn't really do that well with Ernesto. Check out the model performance page for Ernesto to see. At most time periods it was the weakest link of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN (GFS) consensus... at the later periods it underperformed CLIPER.

It's entertaining to look back on the first full set of plots for the invest that became Ernesto. Turned out that LBAR(?!) had it best, with the Shallow BAM being competitive. Other than that though, none of them were better off than CLIPER.

regarding your statement about the GFDL I'm not sure about that - if you look back when Ernesto was getting going in the Eastern Caribbean, the GFDL CORRECTLY called for a NW movement over eastern cuba followed by a WNW track into the Eastern GOM.

All of the other models except the AVNS were saying W track into the NW Caribbean...