NEW: Dr. Gray September Update: 2006 below decadal average

[george_r_1961]

As soon as the flood waters from Ernesto recede im gonna go out and celebrate this

All joking aside this is good news. But what happened in NC and VA is a shining example of even what a decaying TS can do in the right environment.

[AnnularCane]

Whether the crystal ball says 5 or 50 hurricanes is inmaterial...all it takes is one..in 1992,for example..Let's not get our guard down just yet..No one knows for sure what'a ahead...JMO

Thank you!

The local news media is already acting like we're safe (well, I am probably exaggerating a bit) because they lowered the numbers slightly. It doesn't really mean anything. Look at Andrew. And I wasn't around for Betsy, but I do know that season was well below normal.

[Derek Ortt]

some here do not seemt o udnerstand that what Dr Gray and his team does s NOT FOR FUN. It is not for bragging rights on some message board

He is a scientist, and when things change, any halfway decent scientist will update their findings

A lot more is at stake than respect on a message board

[gatorcane]

some here do not seemt o udnerstand that what Dr Gray and his team does s NOT FOR FUN. It is not for bragging rights on some message board

He is a scientist, and when things change, any halfway decent scientist will update their findings

A lot more is at stake than respect on a message board

Derek I see your reasoning but what exactly is at STAKE here? If he called for 40 hurricanes vs 10, how is that going to change anything.

How exactly do these numbers effect me or anybody else? Am I going to prepare more because he calls for 40 hurricanes?

Also given how wrong he has been last season (and now this season it looks like) can we say he has lost some credibility anyway?

[rainstorm]

great news

[x-y-no]

The Hurricane Center tells you their average error 5 days out is several hundred miles , perhaps Dr. Gray should put out a disclaimer also.

They do publish verifications of their seasonal/monthly forecasts.

I do respect the research Dr Gray has done and he has shown some skill in predicting conditions for a given hurricane season, but to amend a prediction after 35 percent of the season is over seems to serve no point.

Again, I don't understand the distinction between them doing this and the Hurricane center changing a forecast track as new data comes in. It's now several months later and we have a good deal of information we didn't have last spring. Why pretend that isn't so?

Now watch us have a hyperactive september and october ! ( I hope not)

Indeed, let's hope not.

[Derek Ortt]

Insurance companies use those predictions.

I believe Dr Gray receives his funding from private companies for these predictions

[x-y-no]

some here do not seemt o udnerstand that what Dr Gray and his team does s NOT FOR FUN. It is not for bragging rights on some message board

He is a scientist, and when things change, any halfway decent scientist will update their findings

A lot more is at stake than respect on a message board

Derek I see your reasoning but what exactly is at STAKE here? If he called for 40 hurricanes vs 10, how is that going to change anything.

How exactly do these numbers effect me or anybody else? Am I going to prepare more because he calls for 40 hurricanes?

Also given how wrong he has been last season (and now this season it looks like) can we say he has lost some credibility anyway?

Dr. Gray's team is engaged in an ongoing effort to develop an objective methodology for seasonal and monthly hurricane activity forecasting.

To the extent they are successful, I'd say that would be tremendously valuable to planners of all sorts, in both the public and private sectors.

[NFLDART]

It only takes one to make your life miserable...Reflect on the 1992 Season

[AtlanticWind]

some here do not seemt o udnerstand that what Dr Gray and his team does s NOT FOR FUN. It is not for bragging rights on some message board

He is a scientist, and when things change, any halfway decent scientist will update their findings

A lot more is at stake than respect on a message board

Derek I see your reasoning but what exactly is at STAKE here? If he called for 40 hurricanes vs 10, how is that going to change anything.

How exactly do these numbers effect me or anybody else? Am I going to prepare more because he calls for 40 hurricanes?

Also given how wrong he has been last season (and now this season it looks like) can we say he has lost some credibility anyway?

Dr. Gray's team is engaged in an ongoing effort to develop an objective methodology for seasonal and monthly hurricane activity forecasting.

To the extent they are successful, I'd say that would be tremendously valuable to planners of all sorts, in both the public and private sectors.

I cant see how at this time his predictions are any help to hurricane planning. How would you change your planning based on whether you have an active season or not when you have no idea which will hit land and how strong they will be. I have no problem with Dr. Gray as researcher , he has advanced the knowledge of hurricane formation greatly, but as for practical use I just dont see at this point.

[wxman57]

I cant see how at this time his predictions are any help to hurricane planning. How would you change your planning based on whether you have an active season or not when you have no idea which will hit land and how strong they will be. I have no problem with Dr. Gray as researcher , he has advanced the knowledge of hurricane formation greatly, but as for practical use I just dont see at this point.

That's the whole point of this research, to try to determine if skill can be developed in the season prediction of hurricane activity and landfall threats. Typically, such research would be kept from the public, or from those who do not fully understand the current capabilities of the research team. But Dr. Gray has elected to make his predictions public for several reasons. For one, there are certain groups who may be able to benefit from such predictions. This would not include the general public. Insurance companies who have to estimate potential losses are one group. Offshore drillers have to make budget estimates based upon potential shut-down time. Millions of dollars are at stake. Anything that proves more accurate than climatology could save these companies a lot of money.

Generally, though, the general public will find his numbers of little value. Whether he predicts 1 named storm or 100, it should make no difference in how coastal residents should prepare for the eventual strike by a hurricane. It only takes one hit to destroy an area, and that one hit can come from a season with only a few named storms.

Perhaps, after several more decades, Phil & Dr. Gray (and others) can learn from their early mistakes and actually make a significant improvement in the yearly predictions of potential impact zones. That's where the value lies, not in just getting the numbers right.

[marcane_1973]

It is possible that it is just time for a dry spell in the Atlantic where we could have less activity for a couple of years or maybe even more. I am sure that would make a lot of people happy considering the rough times we have had here lately. We could use the break.

[x-y-no]

I cant see how at this time his predictions are any help to hurricane planning. How would you change your planning based on whether you have an active season or not when you have no idea which will hit land and how strong they will be. I have no problem with Dr. Gray as researcher , he has advanced the knowledge of hurricane formation greatly, but as for practical use I just dont see at this point.

I would hope that individuals don't base their actions on seasonal forecasts. That's not what their purpose is at all.

To answer your question, I have never altered my planning based on a seasonal forecast. I have followed essentially the same preparation steps every year for the last several decades (with the exception that I no longer live aboard a boat so I can omit all that hassle). I make no alteration to moy preparations whether the forecast is for an intense season or a quiet one.

But if I were a budget planner for the oil industry or something, it might be a very different matter.

[wxman57]

It is possible that it is just time for a dry spell in the Atlantic where we could have less activity for a couple of years or maybe even more. I am sure that would make a lot of people happy considering the rough times we have had here lately. We could use the break.

The pattern for the next several decades appears to be similar to what was observed during the 1940s-1960s. During that period, the average number of named storms was 10 each season. However, the NHC / Weather Bureau was not naming subtropical storms and there was no satellite to detect short-lived storms well out to sea, so I suspect the actual average number per season may have been closer to 12.

That's what we might expect for the next decade or two. 2005 was an extreme anomaly that we'll likely never see again in our lifetimes.

But note that during the 1940s through the 1960s, the east U.S. Coast was pounded by a number of major hurricanes. The Gulf Coast, too. It's not the number that makes the difference, it's the steering patterns.

[Jim Hughes]

Insurance companies use those predictions.

I believe Dr Gray receives his funding from private companies for these predictions

He does and they use these seasonal guidelines. There are ways they can cover their you know what by investing differently and spreading their money around.

[Jim Hughes]

ABSTRACT



Information obtained through 31 August 2006 shows that we have so far experienced only 18 percent of the average full season Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity. We significantly over-estimated August activity. In an average year, 33 percent of the seasonal average NTC of 100 occurs before the end of August.

Our September-only forecast calls for 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 59 which is slightly above the September-only average value of 48. Our October-only forecast calls for 2 named storms, 1 hurricane, 0 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 12 which is below the October-only average value of 18.

We now anticipate that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season will be considerably less active than the seasonal activity we anticipated in our earlier forecasts and in our updated 3 August forecast. We now expect that the 2006 hurricane season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. This is due to an unexpected increase in tropical Atlantic mid-level dryness (with large amounts of African dust) and a continued trend towards El Niño-like conditions in the eastern and central Pacific.



Above is the abstract of the outlook.

Link to the complete September Only Outlook.
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... 6/sep2006/

The NTC numbers are the key here. Everyone was always bringing up the ACE numbers around here last season but this year was different. Most people were always pointing toward the number of named storms and saying that we were running above average. They would hardly ever bring up ACE. (Even though Mike updates it)

It remains to be seen whether Klotzbach / Gray end up being right but it's nice to see that they are seeing things in much the same manner as someone like myself and some others. I also like his El Nino comments.

Most regulars should know that I have been pushing the EL Nino all season and to no avail because of my so called amateur status. (Even though I have been long term forecasting for twelve years.)

Well I accidentally ran across a thread today from last September. In which I mention the possible development of the La Nina because of recent (Back then) space weather conditions.

Most knowledgeable people should know that a weak La Nina developed this past fall/winter and NOAA did not forecast it until it was already here. (Just like this El Nino) .

When they finally did admit that we had a La Nina. It died almost the same month. But I was actually talking about the development of the El Nino at this very same time frame somewhere else. ( I can dig that URL up also. Just PM me since forum rules prohibit links to other forums. )

Here's the bottom line folks. Space weather does control the EL Nino/La Nina and its high time we quit denying this over politics. I know how to forecast these trends and it is based on space weather.


September 05' Storm2k comments. First comments on top of the third page.


http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=75841

[Swimdude]

As soon as the flood waters from Ernesto recede im gonna go out and celebrate this

All joking aside this is good news. But what happened in NC and VA is a shining example of even what a decaying TS can do in the right environment.

Ernesto wasn't a decaying TS in the least.

[cpdaman]

jim hughes u are the man , space weather as an a very strong indicator, even when others laugh, results speak for themselves.

jim do you think HAARP has any influence on the hurricane forecast of DR. grey or for that matter the hurricane frequencys intensity or tracks in general

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Yeah, pick your poison though, If they are haveing trouble predicting the hurricane season because they are having problems predicting the El Nino, then this winter could be a doozy in the southeast with severe storms and flooding if there is a stronger El Nino.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Isn't the average 11 storms? How is 13 storms below the average?